Last Friday, a Russian drone crashed into an apartment building wounding several occupants in Romania, a NATO country. Two weeks ago, Russia hit Kyiv with the largest drone attacks of the war, launching over 1,400 drones into Kyiv. Both stories barely made ripples in the news cycle.

Americans certainly have valid reasons for why their attention is diverted, with the war in Iran and the Trump-Xi Summit, to name a few headlines, taking up bandwidth. They are also fatigued as the conflict in Ukraine approaches its fifth year.

Ukrainians, despite doing the actual fighting, do not share Americans’ battle fatigue. The gutsy Ukrainians still are standing strong over 1,562 days after Putin launched what was supposed only to be a “72-hour war” in February 2022. Not only that, but they are beginning to turn the tide in their favor. The Russians are losing more soldiers while making virtually no progress in battlefield gains. Ukrainians have also regained the advantage in drone warfare, with the Institute for the Study of War finding that “Ukrainian forces are achieving temporary tactical drone overmatch in some frontline sectors, which is slowing Russian offensive operations by degrading the effectiveness of Russian shaping operations.” It’s also worth noting that despite incremental delivery, Western support continues to provide advantages. Most recently, the Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) package approval will enable the Ukrainians to strike at much longer distance. 

However, in spite of these positive developments, things remain precarious. While Ukraine may have some key advantages, the summer months could put additional cards on the table for the Russians. As discussed in this week’s Vandenberg Flash Focus with Meaghan Mobbs, the Russians may be able to leverage mass the Ukrainians don’t have. Time will tell. But as Mobbs points out, even with American attention elsewhere, Ukraine might leverage their strong footing to solidify gains necessary for a stronger position at the negotiating table this fall.