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The Vandenberg Coalition

Honest Candor

Senator Vandenberg called for “honest candor” in discussions on U.S. foreign policy. The Vandenberg Coalition is proud to continue this tradition by sharing the best analysis from across the country and around the world.
Europe

Table for Two

David J. Kramer

American Purpose

June 22, 2021

 

Bottom Line: David Kramer provides a detailed analysis of the Biden-Putin summit, arguing that the meeting did not advance U.S. interests or improve bilateral relations.

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Europe

Opinion: Biden lifts Putin out of international isolationism

Konstantin Eggert

Deutsche Welle (English)

June 18, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Russian journalist Konstantin Eggert provides a detailed analysis of the Biden-Putin summit. Eggert covers many of the key issues discussed and argues that Biden may have made a conceptual error in judging Putin on Cold War merits.

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Europe

Delusional West

Editorial

Kyiv Post

June 18, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Kyiv Post argues that Ukraine came out worse from the three big events of Biden’s foreign trip — the G7, NATO summit, and Biden-Putin meeting — highlighting for instance the dire consequences for Ukraine of Biden’s green light to Nord Stream 2.

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Indo-Pacific

Chaos on the Horizon: Pakistan Wants a Risky Reset

Paul Kapur

National Interest

June 6, 2021

 

Bottom Line:  TVC Advisory Board member Paul Kapur offers strategic advice to the Biden administration on the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. He concludes that although a reset in the relationship sounds attractive, it is unlikely to succeed.

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China

A Just Response to Beijing’s COVID-19 Abuses

David Asher, Thomas DiNanno, David Feith, Miles Yu, and Matthew Zweig

Hudson Institute

June 6, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Five former Trump administration officials, including those who were central to shaping the U.S. foreign policy response to Covid, outline specific steps the Biden administration and Congress should take to get answers from China.

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China

Investigate the origins of COVID-19

Jesse D. Bloom, Yujia Alina Chan, Ralph S. Baric, Pamela J. Bjorkman, Sarah Cobey, Benjamin E. Deverman, David N. Fisman, Ravindra Gupta, Akiko Iwasaki, Marc Lipsitch, Ruslan Medzhitov, Richard A. Neher, Rasmus Nielsen, Nick Patterson, Tim Stearns, Erik van Nimwegen, Michael Worobey, David A. Relman

Science

May 14, 2021

 

Bottom Line: A group of distinguished scientists speaks out on Covid debates in Science magazine, calling for further investigation into the origins of the pandemic and noting that both accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover remain viable theories.

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China

Origin of Covid — Following the Clues

Nicholas Wade

May 2, 2021

 

Bottom Line: In an informative and meticulous essay, science writer Nicholas Wade sorts through the available facts on the origins of the Covid virus, providing readers with a wealth of evidence to make their own judgments about the roots of the pandemic.

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China

The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Katherine Eban

Vanity Fair

June 3, 2021

 

Bottom Line:  TVC Governance Board member Matthew Pottinger and Advisory Board member David Feith, who both served at high levels in the Trump administration, are quoted extensively in this Vanity Fair essay on Covid origins.  The piece draws on months of investigation, more than 40 interviews, and the review of numerous documents.

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Grand Strategy

Biden’s Risky Risk-Averse Foreign Policy—Why It’s Not Smart To Mimic Obama

Jim Carafano

Heritage

May 25, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Carafano argues that the same people who incorrectly branded President Trump’s foreign policy as isolationist are now embracing an internationalism on the part of President Biden that in fact constitutes the kind of pernicious isolationism likely to invite aggression, as we saw during the Obama administration in multiple regions.

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American Politics

Reputation Laundering in the University Sector of Open Societies: An International Forum Working Paper

Alexander Cooley, Tena Prelec, John Heathershaw, Tom Mayne

National Endowment for Democracy International Forum for Democratic Studies Working Paper

May 2021, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The authors explore the effects of kleptocratic reputational laundering through donations and other means at universities and think tanks. They argue that addressing this type of laundering must be a priority for academic institutions, recommending a number of changes to donation and giving policies.

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Grand Strategy

The Wedge Strategy Logic of U.S.-Russia Dialogue

Timothy W. Crawford

Cornell University Press Blog

May 25, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Crawford notes that the geopolitics behind Biden’s push for a “strategic stability dialogue” with Russia are of a trilateral — not bilateral — nature in light of the looming U.S.-China-Russia triangle. In this context, Crawford asks “If Russia and China are using wedge strategies to weaken U.S.-led alliances in Europe and East Asia, can the U.S. use them to divide Russia from China?”

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Defense

Why ‘Plutonium Pits’ Are Key to Updating Our Aging Nuclear Arsenal

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs and Tim Morrison

The Dispatch

May 20, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Biden administration has begun reviewing U.S. nuclear posture in advance of a formal nuclear posture review (NPR).  Heinrichs and Morrison advise the administration to maintain the bipartisan consensus to fully modernize the U.S. nuclear deterrent, emphasizing the need to embrace plans to reconstitute a plutonium pit production capability at two sites.

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Middle East

Don’t Withdraw U.S. Forces from the Middle East

Roger Zakheim

National Review

May 24, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Zakheim argues that President Biden’s plan to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan needs a dose of realism, arguing that a reimagined military presence in the Middle East is essential to furthering U.S. national security interests.

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Iran

Biden Must Reverse Course on Iran — Before It’s Too Late

Sen. Bill Hagerty and H.R. McMaster

Real Clear Politics

May 11, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Hagerty and McMaster argue that President Biden must reverse course on Iran before it is too late. He should preserve sanctions and acknowledge that maximum pressure, not conciliation, is the best way to force the Iranian regime to choose either behaving like a normal nation or facing economic ruin

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Middle East

Biden Has Emboldened Israel’s Enemies

Editorial

National Review

May 12, 2021

 

Bottom Line: This National Review editorial provides background on the crisis in Israel, linking to several other informative articles. The editorial concludes that the Mideast policies pursued by the current administration have emboldened Israel’s enemies.

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Middle East

The Realignment

Michal Doran and Tony Badran

Tablet

May 10, 2021

 

Bottom Line: In this detailed essay, Doran and Badran provide a discerning overview of recent U.S. policy toward the Middle East, arguing that the Biden administration is continuing a misguided Obama-era approach to the region.

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China

A Middle Class Foreign Policy Must Address Universities’ China Dependence

Amanda J. Rothschild

Newsweek

May 14, 2021

 

Bottom Line:  Debates on student visas for foreign nationals often obscure the profound moral and economic consequences of higher education’s financial dependence on China, including preferencing foreign nationals in admission and perpetuating ballooning tuition costs.  A true “foreign policy for the middle class” must address these issues.

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Ransomware Is Coming; It’ll Make You Wannacry

Klon Kitchen

The Kitchen Sync

May 11, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Kitchen’s newsletter returns to an article he penned with Dr. Megan Reiss in 2018 on the growing risk of ransomware to highlight new dangers and possible solutions. An important read in light of the recent Colonial Pipeline crisis.

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China

The Future of “Great Power Competition”

Alexander B. Gray and Jacob McCarty

Defense Dossier

May 17, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Several articles of interest in this issue of Defense Dossier, including Klon Kitchen’s “The Chinese Threat to Privacy” and Alexander Gray’s “Protecting the U.S. Supply Chain from China.” Other articles include pieces on 5G competition, countering China in Africa, and Chinese human rights abuses.

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Grand Strategy

What We Have Learned About Biden’s Foreign Policy

Eric Edelman

The Dispatch

May 10, 2021

 

Bottom Line:  Despite limited discussion on foreign policy in Biden’s address to a Joint Session of Congress, it is critical to track the Biden administration’s approach. Edelman provides a thoughtful assessment of where the administration has made important inroads – and what consequences may arise if other policies are not re-evaluated.

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Grand Strategy

U.S. National Security Strategy: Lessons Learned

Paul Lettow

Texas National Security Review

Spring 2021

 

Bottom Line:  The Biden team is likely to produce a national security strategy in the next year or two.  To succeed, the Biden administration will need to heed lessons from previous presidential administrations.  Lettow provides a detailed history of the processes and strategies of several past administrations, beginning with the Eisenhower administration.

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Western Hemisphere

The Dragon Descends Southwards: Chinese Foreign Policy in Latin America Warrants a U.S. Response

Ryan Berg and Allison Schwartz

Georgetown Security Studies Review

May 4, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The United States should pay more attention to the role of Latin America and the Caribbean in strategic competition with China. Amid growing security and economic threats to the region, the United States must develop a comprehensive plan to avert geopolitical insolvency and win the great power competition in its neighborhood.
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China and Economics

Why Should We Care About Digital Currencies?

Bonnie Glick and Erik Bethel

Newsweek

April 28, 2021

 
Bottom Line: Former U.S. Executive Director of the World Bank and Deputy Administrator of USAID under the Trump administration highlight the critical importance of digital currencies in great power competition.  Bethel and Glick warn that China is poised to lead the charge into a digital global economy.

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Defense

America’s Military Risks Losing Its Edge: How to Transform the Pentagon for a Competitive Era

Michele A. Flournoy

Foreign Affairs

May/June 2021

 
Bottom Line: Former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy, warns of critical deficiencies in America’s military preparedness to meet growing great power threats, particularly those posed by the Chinese Communist Party. Flournoy outlines several urgent recommendations for the Department of Defense to ensure that the United States maintains its military and technological edge over competitors.

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China and Defense

Biden Must Boost 2022 Budget To Counter China

Thomas Spoehr

Breaking Defense

May 5, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Spoehr argues that now is the wrong time to constrain defense spending. The Biden administration should instead work with Congress to establish a higher defense topline. Secretary Austin and Chairman Milley must articulate the need for sufficient resourcing and stop self-defeating rivalries.

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A New Coalition to Advance U.S. Global Interests

By Elliott Abrams

The Wall Street Journal

April 28, 2021

 

The U.S. is at a critical crossroads when it comes to the defense of American freedom, security and prosperity. Around the world, the U.S. faces significant national-security threats […] None of these challenges will disappear if America abandons the international role it has maintained since World War II as the superpower leader of the free world. Each threat requires U.S. leadership if the country’s security, economic interests, and values are to be protected. That is why today I am joining with 75 other national security scholars and practitioners to launch the Vandenberg Coalition, a new network committed to advancing a strong and proud American foreign policy.

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China

How The United States Can Avert War By Backing Taiwan Peacefully Now

By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs

The Federalist

April 12, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Communist China may soon attempt to seize free and democratic Taiwan. If the United States has not adapted its weapons deployments in time to win against the PRC at acceptable costs, the United States will not defend Taiwan from attack, allowing the Chinese Communist Party to score a “death blow” to the United States in today’s great power competition. If, on the other hand, the CCP miscalculates U.S. and allied will to defend Taiwan, a serious and potentially “nightmarish” war would ensue.  The United States and its partners should work together urgently now to prevent these outcomes.

 

What to Do: To bolster deterrence, the United States should provide greater strategic clarity on U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan. The U.S. should also push for greater weapons sales to Taiwan, implement a robust forward posture in the Indo-Pacific theater, fortify Guam against potential attack by the PRC, quickly produce and deploy ground-launched cruise missiles, and emphasize close cooperation with regional allies and partners, as the United States already has through the Quad partnership with India, Australia, and Japan.

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China

Commons Foreign Affairs Chief Tom Tugendhat Hit By Chinese ‘Psyops’ Attack Claiming He Has Quit Over Sanctions

By Hugo Gye

The i

April 9, 2021

 

Bottom Line: British Commons Foreign Affairs Chief Tom Tugendhat claimed to have been targeted by a Chinese “psyops” attack after an email in his name was sent to fellow MPs claiming he had resigned because of sanctions imposed on him by the Chinese Communist Party.

 

What to Do: British MPs targeted with sanctions by China are outspoken critics of the CCP. Twenty-eight former Trump administration officials were also recently sanctioned by the CCP, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Deputy National Security Adviser and Vandenberg Governing Board Member Matthew Pottinger, and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Vandenberg Advisory Board Member David Stilwell.

 

As this article notes, the Essex Court barrister’s chambers has recently seen members depart because they can no longer do business in Asia.  The effectiveness of CCP sanctions will be reduced, as the costs of not doing business with China are also reduced.  The United States should encourage solidarity within the U.S. and with our partners in standing against these measures and take steps to help insulate government officials from their effects.

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Middle East

Israel: The Longer View

By Michel Gurfinkiel

First Things

April 20, 2021

 

Bottom Line:  French journalist Michel Gurfinkiel highlights several counter-intuitive facts regarding the March 23 Israeli general election, arguing that the results were not simply confirmation of systemic political deadlock resulting from the country’s electoral system.  He asserts the following: first, whereas the election was inconclusive in terms of seats, the Netanyahu-led right clearly won in terms of the popular vote; second, Israel is now emerging as the most conservative nation in the democratic world; third, it is misleading to describe the Israeli parliamentary deadlock as a duel between two political blocs of equal strength; fourth, the 2021 election signals drastic political change among Israeli Arabs.

 

What to Do: Taking the longer view of the elections leads Gurfinkiel to several conclusions worth attention, including the following: the possibility of a direct, quasi-presidential election of the prime minister on an exceptional basis; the potential for Israel’s conservative turn to influence Israeli media, academia, and the courts, as well as inspire conservatives in other democratic countries; the likelihood that the “anti-Netanyahu bloc” is not strong enough to lead a government majority; and the possibility for the Abraham Accords to increasingly lead Israeli Arabs and Muslim parties to embrace Jewish-Arab cooperation alongside a growing number of Arab states. Gurfinkiel encourages Western nations to pay close attention to this development, noting that conservative policies may do a better job of addressing Muslim immigration than liberal policies like those implemented in Europe or North America.

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Middle East

As Netanyahu Eyes a Fifth Election Is He Driving Bennett into Lapid’s Arms?

By Haviv Rettig Gur

The Times of Israel

April 22, 2021

 
Bottom Line:  Gur argues that Netanyahu’s attacks on Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett are a result of Netanyahu’s decision to go for a fifth election, which requires ensuring that Yair Lapid, chairman of Yesh Atid, does not piece together a coalition with Bennett after he fails.  However, Gur points out that there’s a tipping point Netanyahu doesn’t see, and he may not be able to tell when he’s crossed the line at which the effect of his vilification campaign on Bennett is reversed.
 
What to Do:  Paying attention to strategic incentives and consequences surrounding the Netanyahu-Bennett exchange may provide useful insights about the direction of Israeli politics.

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China

Look to the Reagan Administration for the Answer to the China Challenge

By H.R. McMaster and Jonathan D.T. Ward

LA Times

March 15, 2021

 

Bottom Line: In the great power competition with China today, the United States must apply Reagan’s fundamental insight from the Cold War — to win against a rival of China’s magnitude requires sustained pressure against the true sources of the adversary’s power.

 

What to Do: The United States and its partners should restrict investment into Chinese companies and industries that support the CCP’s goals and human rights abuses. The United States should block China’s access to Western technology in areas that contribute to military advantage and construct a new trade and supply chain system that reduces dependency on China. With India, Australia, and Japan, the U.S. must maintain preponderant military power in the Indo-Pacific. In all of this, America and its allies should be confident.

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Europe

Biden Must Follow the Law and Sanction Nord Stream Now

By Michael McCaul and Jim Risch

Foreign Policy

March 29, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Nord Stream 2 pipeline poses a significant national security risk to the United States and NATO partners, and the Biden administration must urgently implement the mandatory U.S. sanctions on all vessels and companies currently working to complete the Nord Stream 2 project.

 

What to Do: Urgently implement required sanctions on entities facilitating construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; do not attempt to bolster relations with Germany by placating a Russian energy project that threatens NATO and U.S. security; promote energy independence for the United States and its allies and partners and avoid dependence on foreign adversaries and competitors.

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Indo-Pacific

How Biden’s Foreign Policy Approach Builds on Trump’s

By Lisa Curtis

CNN

March 12, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Biden administration is right to continue the Trump administration’s focus on strengthening the “Quad” – a loose alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.

 

What to Do: Bolster the Quad to deter China from hostile behavior, such as the recent clashes with India and Australia; use the Quad to lead efforts for alternative supply chains that bypass China; pool Quad resources and expand information and data exchange to enhance maritime security in the Indo-Pacific; consider expanding Quad discussions to include South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and others on an issue-by-issue basis.

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Grand Strategy

Key Republican Lessons for Biden’s Global Agenda

By Michael J. Green, A. Wess Mitchell, Amanda J. Rothschild, Kori Schake, Daniel Twining

Foreign Policy

February 3, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Five former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations share their foreign-policy advice for the new team.

 

What to Do: Impose strategic discipline on the national security team; reform the NATO alliance to prepare for rivalry with Russia and China; don’t abandon key achievements from the Trump administration; avoid making defense excessively subservient to domestic goals; leverage America’s democratic edge to undercut authoritarian rivals.

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Defense

A Good Battery Is the Best Defense Against a Military Assault

By Arthur Herman and Nadia Schadlow

The Wall Street Journal

March 30, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The development and manufacturing of batteries is likely to become a modern-day arms race. Advanced batteries provide energy that can help the Pentagon execute multiple missions across long distances unhindered by the obstacles posed by adversaries. The United States will need to invest in a secure innovation and production base for advanced battery technology.

 

What to Do: The Defense Department must work closely with battery manufacturers and other parts of government, such as the Energy Department, to reshore this key part of America’s defense innovation base.

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Defense

The Downsides of Downsizing: Why the United States Needs Four Hundred ICBMs

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti

Atlantic Council

March 29, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Downsizing the ICBM force to three hundred missiles would undermine the major goals of U.S. nuclear strategy by reducing the U.S. ability to achieve its goals if deterrence fails, increasing the risk that adversaries initiate and escalate military challenges, and hindering U.S. ability to hedge against an uncertain future.

 

What to Do: The Department of Defense should add missiles to fill existing, unused silos, which would be a treaty-compliant and cost-effective way to strengthen U.S. nuclear posture; the United States should modestly increase the size of its ICBM force by deploying an additional twenty-five ICBMs among its existing fifty empty silos in accordance with New START limits.

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Middle East

The Abraham Accords Hold the Key to Biden’s East Med Policy

By Matthew Zais

MENASource

April 6, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The natural gas debate between climate idealists and energy realists in the Biden administration threatens to diminish the potential and power of America’s international energy diplomacy. Leadership in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum provides the United States an opportunity to bolster its international energy diplomacy in the region and champion the geopolitical power of energy cooperation.

 

What to Do: The United States should actively participate and be a leader in EMGF in order to: reduce global emissions through natural gas solutions; challenge Turkish aggression by enabling regional energy cooperation and expanding beyond gas and the Mediterranean; counter Russia and China by coupling diplomatic efforts through the EMGF with a re-commitment to U.S. financial institutions like the DFC and EXIM to leverage American energy dominance and realize effective international energy diplomacy.

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Iran

Is Iran Being Turned into a Chinese Gas Station?

By Elliott Abrams

National Review

March 30, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The figures cited in the recent agreement for China to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years should be viewed with skepticism. Either the amounts are mostly propaganda to boost both the Chinese and Iranian regimes, or if the amounts are accurate, the regime, suffering under U.S. sanctions, is selling the country to China.

 

What to Do: Foreign policy experts and officials should further scrutinize the numbers in the China-Iran deal. The Iranian people should seek more transparent information about what has been agreed to in this partnership.

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Iran

The Real Iran Deal Needs to Include All the Relevant Actors

By Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky

The Jerusalem Post

April 12, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Comprehensive economic and security pacts between the United States, Iran, Israel, and other regional partners are the best way to address the insolvency of the Iranian economy and the regime’s nuclear program.

 

What to Do: The U.S. should lead in the negotiation of the Cyrus Accords between the United States, Iran, Israel, and other regional partners. The Cyrus Accords should require the renunciation of hostilities between the signatories, use U.S. and Israel public-private partnerships to support Iranian capacity, and promote regional cooperation to assist Iran in upgrading its energy industry and engaging in a collective security construct that would encourage stability.

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Iran

Holding Iran Accountable: The Importance of Maintaining Sanctions Leverage

By Robert Greenway

Hudson Institute

April 21, 2021

 

Bottom Line: Lifting sanctions before the Iranian regime changes its behavior endangers our national security, undermines the legitimacy of our authorities, erodes the impact of a vital tool with broad bipartisan support, and exposes our actions to an unnecessary legal challenge.

 

What to Do: As the negotiations on returning to the 2015 JCPOA continue, all sanctions outside the scope of Iran’s nuclear activities should be excluded. If Tehran seeks relief beyond the bounds of the JCPOA, we should pursue a new deal that encompasses all of Iran’s malign behavior. Revoking designations should follow the same process as employing sanctions. The administration should conduct an intelligence assessment to confirm that the conditions that prompted the designation are no longer present. Congress should require the same rigor to remove the State Sponsors of Terrorism designation as to impose it, among other vital actions.

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Indo-Pacific

Three Ways the Biden Administration Can Bolster the U.S.-Japan Relationship

By H.R. McMaster & Riley Walters

Washington Times

March 3, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Biden Administration must “build on top” of the already strong U.S.-Japan alliance to effectively counter the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea and the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

What to Do: The Biden Administration should do the following: select an experienced Asia expert for ambassador to Japan, strengthen the Quad, and work with Tokyo to push through reform of the WHO and other international organizations; work with Tokyo to encourage other countries to enforce U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea and counter the CCP’s aggressive and genocidal practices; and support Japan’s continued leadership on critical regional trade and investment by clarifying the 2019 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement and encouraging the admission of Taiwan to the CPTPP Committee.

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China

Beijing Targets American Business

By Matthew Pottinger

Wall Street Journal

March 26, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The United States and the Chinese Communist Party are strategic and ideological competitors. American CEOs, their boards, and their investors have to decide which side they want to help win.

 

What to Do: U.S. companies should do the following: understand that it will become increasingly difficult to placate both Washington and Beijing; formally review the effects of great power competition and new regulatory, fiduciary, and reputational risks; and draw up contingencies to diversify supply chains. Above all, we must ensure that every policy, bill, and government-industry partnership increases our leverage in the competition.

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Indo-Pacific

Significant Shortcomings Alert: Biden is Struggling to Find Success in India

By S. Paul Kapur

National Interest

April 11, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Biden administration’s approach to the U.S.-India partnership has fallen short in a number of important areas. These could cause problems in the months and years ahead.

 

What to Do: Don’t relegate partners that are not formal treaty allies, like India and Vietnam, to second tier status; avoid publicly commenting on issues that India would prefer be handled privately; embrace the accomplishments of the Trump administration in advancing U.S.-India relations in order to build on these successes.

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Grand Strategy

Securing Freedom for the Middle Class, and All Americans

By Peter Berkowitz

Real Clear Politics

April 24, 2021

 

Bottom Line: The Biden administration’s focus straight out of the gate on implementing a progressive agenda favored by intellectual and political elites constitutes a repudiation of Trump administration concerns for working families and the middle class.

 

What to Do: The Administration should focus on developing programs to train a new generation of diplomats and security officials in languages and high-tech know-how.

Read More »

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