Senator Vandenberg called for “honest candor” in discussions on U.S. foreign policy. The Vandenberg Coalition is proud to continue this tradition by sharing the best analysis from across the country and around the world.
James Jay Carafano
Fox News
June 17, 2021
Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Jim Carafano provides a brief overview of lessons learned from Biden’s first foreign trip, focusing on the G7 meetings.
Konstantin Eggert
Deutsche Welle (English)
June 18, 2021
Bottom Line: Russian journalist Konstantin Eggert provides a detailed analysis of the Biden-Putin summit. Eggert covers many of the key issues discussed and argues that Biden may have made a conceptual error in judging Putin on Cold War merits.
Editorial
Kyiv Post
June 18, 2021
Bottom Line: The Kyiv Post argues that Ukraine came out worse from the three big events of Biden’s foreign trip — the G7, NATO summit, and Biden-Putin meeting — highlighting for instance the dire consequences for Ukraine of Biden’s green light to Nord Stream 2.
Morgan Ortagus
The Hill
June 14, 2021
Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Morgan Ortagus identifies the specific steps corporations can take to offset business ties with China.
Colleen Graffy
The Telegraph
June 10, 2021
Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Colleen Graffy highlights the consequences of a unique taxation problem faced by Americans living overseas.
BBC News
June 19, 2021
Bottom Line: This BBC article briefly details the consequences of the Iranian presidential election for Iran and the world.
Paul Stott
Henry Jackson Society
June 7, 2021
Bottom line: As President Biden visits the United Kingdom, a 100-page paper details Iran’s interference in British political, cultural, and religious life, including by promoting Scottish independence, and attacking Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the fight against terrorism
Peter Rough and Tim Morrison
National Review
June 14, 2021
Bottom Line: In light of the Biden-Putin meeting this week, Rough and Morrison argue that the administration’s policies on Russia need significant improvement.
Daniel Baer and David J. Kramer
The Bulwark
June 14, 2021
Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member David Kramer joins Daniel Baer in offering specific advice to President Biden for his meeting with the Russian president.
Paul Kapur
National Interest
June 6, 2021
Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Paul Kapur offers strategic advice to the Biden administration on the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. He concludes that although a reset in the relationship sounds attractive, it is unlikely to succeed.
Casey Michel and Paul Massaro
Foreign Policy
June 3, 2021
Bottom Line: Michel and Massaro draw important attention to kleptocracies’ destructive actions in working class towns and detail the June 10th launch of the Congressional Caucus Against Foreign Corruption and Kleptocracy.
Emily Green
Vice World News
June 9, 2021
Bottom Line: Drawing on interviews with Guatemalans, Mexico-city based and Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Emily Green offers a unique perspective on VP Harris’s trip.
Mike Pompeo and Lewis Libby
Washington Post
June 7, 2021
Bottom Line: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Lewis Libby join forces in a timely op-ed urging the Biden administration to lead a fair and effective international response to the Chinese Communist Party’s malfeasance in the spread of Covid-19.
David Asher, Thomas DiNanno, David Feith, Miles Yu, and Matthew Zweig
Hudson Institute
June 6, 2021
Bottom Line: Five former Trump administration officials, including those who were central to shaping the U.S. foreign policy response to Covid, outline specific steps the Biden administration and Congress should take to get answers from China.
Jesse D. Bloom, Yujia Alina Chan, Ralph S. Baric, Pamela J. Bjorkman, Sarah Cobey, Benjami
Science
May 14, 2021
Bottom Line: A group of distinguished scientists speaks out on Covid debates in Science magazine, calling for further investigation into the origins of the pandemic and noting that both accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover remain viable theories.
Donald G. McNeil Jr
May 17, 2021
Bottom Line: Former New York Times science and health reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. provides a reflective and detailed firsthand account of reporting on Covid origins.
Nicholas Wade
May 2, 2021
Bottom Line: In an informative and meticulous essay, science writer Nicholas Wade sorts through the available facts on the origins of the Covid virus, providing readers with a wealth of evidence to make their own judgments about the roots of the pandemic.
Katherine Eban
Vanity Fair
June 3, 2021
Bottom Line: TVC Governance Board member Matthew Pottinger and Advisory Board member David Feith, who both served at high levels in the Trump administration, are quoted extensively in this Vanity Fair essay on Covid origins. The piece draws on months of investigation, more than 40 interviews, and the review of numerous documents.
Yanzhong Huang
China Leadership Monitor
June 1, 2021
Bottom Line: Huang examines whether China’s authoritarian model is better suited to crisis management than liberal democracy, using the pandemic response as a case study. Huang concludes that China’s authoritarian model does not perform better.
Jim Carafano
Heritage
May 25, 2021
Bottom Line: Carafano argues that the same people who incorrectly branded President Trump’s foreign policy as isolationist are now embracing an internationalism on the part of President Biden that in fact constitutes the kind of pernicious isolationism likely to invite aggression, as we saw during the Obama administration in multiple regions.
Junnosuke Kobara
Nikkei Asia
May 20, 2021
Bottom Line: Japan to scrap traditional 1-percent GDP cap on defense spending, as it looks to increase defensive capabilities to counter dangerous security threats.
Stephen Rademaker
ABA-ICC Project
May 24, 2021
Bottom Line: Rademaker provides a critical overview of the ICC’s fundamental design flaws as part of a series on the U.S.-ICC relationship.
Alexander Cooley, Tena Prelec, John Heathershaw, Tom Mayne
National Endowment for Democracy International Forum for Democratic Studies Working Paper
May 2021, 2021
Bottom Line: The authors explore the effects of kleptocratic reputational laundering through donations and other means at universities and think tanks. They argue that addressing this type of laundering must be a priority for academic institutions, recommending a number of changes to donation and giving policies.
Timothy W. Crawford
Cornell University Press Blog
May 25, 2021
Bottom Line: Crawford notes that the geopolitics behind Biden’s push for a “strategic stability dialogue” with Russia are of a trilateral — not bilateral — nature in light of the looming U.S.-China-Russia triangle. In this context, Crawford asks “If Russia and China are using wedge strategies to weaken U.S.-led alliances in Europe and East Asia, can the U.S. use them to divide Russia from China?”
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs and Tim Morrison
The Dispatch
May 20, 2021
Bottom Line: The Biden administration has begun reviewing U.S. nuclear posture in advance of a formal nuclear posture review (NPR). Heinrichs and Morrison advise the administration to maintain the bipartisan consensus to fully modernize the U.S. nuclear deterrent, emphasizing the need to embrace plans to reconstitute a plutonium pit production capability at two sites.
Yasmeen Serhan
The Atlantic
May 26, 2021
Bottom Line: The Atlantic interviews a Belarusian opposition leader on the recent Ryanair plane grounding and the practical steps governments could take in response.
Roger Zakheim
National Review
May 24, 2021
Bottom Line: Zakheim argues that President Biden’s plan to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan needs a dose of realism, arguing that a reimagined military presence in the Middle East is essential to furthering U.S. national security interests.
Elliott Abrams
The Hill
May 24, 2021
Bottom Line: Abrams explores lessons learned from the recent Israel-Hamas war. He provides a detailed analysis of Palestinian politics and offers several insightful suggestions for the Biden administration, Arab states, Israel, and others seeking peace and stability.
Sen. Bill Hagerty and H.R. McMaster
Real Clear Politics
May 11, 2021
Bottom Line: Hagerty and McMaster argue that President Biden must reverse course on Iran before it is too late. He should preserve sanctions and acknowledge that maximum pressure, not conciliation, is the best way to force the Iranian regime to choose either behaving like a normal nation or facing economic ruin
Editorial
National Review
May 12, 2021
Bottom Line: This National Review editorial provides background on the crisis in Israel, linking to several other informative articles. The editorial concludes that the Mideast policies pursued by the current administration have emboldened Israel’s enemies.
Michal Doran and Tony Badran
Tablet
May 10, 2021
Bottom Line: In this detailed essay, Doran and Badran provide a discerning overview of recent U.S. policy toward the Middle East, arguing that the Biden administration is continuing a misguided Obama-era approach to the region.
Amanda J. Rothschild
Newsweek
May 14, 2021
Bottom Line: Debates on student visas for foreign nationals often obscure the profound moral and economic consequences of higher education’s financial dependence on China, including preferencing foreign nationals in admission and perpetuating ballooning tuition costs. A true “foreign policy for the middle class” must address these issues.
James Jay Carafano
Detroit News
April 7, 2021
Bottom Line: Carafano argues that achieving sustained border security is an achievable goal, outlining seven steps for sustained border security.
Klon Kitchen
The Kitchen Sync
May 11, 2021
Bottom Line: Kitchen’s newsletter returns to an article he penned with Dr. Megan Reiss in 2018 on the growing risk of ransomware to highlight new dangers and possible solutions. An important read in light of the recent Colonial Pipeline crisis.
Alexander B. Gray and Jacob McCarty
Defense Dossier
May 17, 2021
Bottom Line: Several articles of interest in this issue of Defense Dossier, including Klon Kitchen’s “The Chinese Threat to Privacy” and Alexander Gray’s “Protecting the U.S. Supply Chain from China.” Other articles include pieces on 5G competition, countering China in Africa, and Chinese human rights abuses.
Peter Berkowitz
Real Clear Politics
May 16, 2021
Bottom Line: Berkowitz argues that the United States should promote diverse associations within international civil society to secure freedom and meet the China Challenge.
Kurt Volker
CEPA
May 21, 2021
Bottom Line: Volker provides a detailed agenda for NATO Allies to address Russian aggression at the summit in Brussels next month.
Eric Edelman
The Dispatch
May 10, 2021
Bottom Line: Despite limited discussion on foreign policy in Biden’s address to a Joint Session of Congress, it is critical to track the Biden administration’s approach. Edelman provides a thoughtful assessment of where the administration has made important inroads – and what consequences may arise if other policies are not re-evaluated.
Paul Lettow
Texas National Security Review
Spring 2021
Bottom Line: The Biden team is likely to produce a national security strategy in the next year or two. To succeed, the Biden administration will need to heed lessons from previous presidential administrations. Lettow provides a detailed history of the processes and strategies of several past administrations, beginning with the Eisenhower administration.
Ray Takeyh
Wall Street Journal
May 2, 2021
Bottom Line: Ray Takeyh urges the United States to follow the example of the Helsinki Accords with the Soviet Union and include human rights in any negotiations with Iran.
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Ryan Berg and Allison Schwartz Georgetown Security Studies Review May 4, 2021
Bottom Line: The United States should pay more attention to the role of Latin America and the Caribbean in strategic competition with China. Amid growing security and economic threats to the region, the United States must develop a comprehensive plan to avert geopolitical insolvency and win the great power competition in its neighborhood. |
Bonnie Glick and Erik Bethel
Newsweek
April 28, 2021
Bottom Line: Former U.S. Executive Director of the World Bank and Deputy Administrator of USAID under the Trump administration highlight the critical importance of digital currencies in great power competition. Bethel and Glick warn that China is poised to lead the charge into a digital global economy.
Michele A. Flournoy
Foreign Affairs
May/June 2021
Bottom Line: Former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy, warns of critical deficiencies in America’s military preparedness to meet growing great power threats, particularly those posed by the Chinese Communist Party. Flournoy outlines several urgent recommendations for the Department of Defense to ensure that the United States maintains its military and technological edge over competitors.
Thomas Spoehr
Breaking Defense
May 5, 2021
Bottom Line: Spoehr argues that now is the wrong time to constrain defense spending. The Biden administration should instead work with Congress to establish a higher defense topline. Secretary Austin and Chairman Milley must articulate the need for sufficient resourcing and stop self-defeating rivalries.
Announcing the launch of the Vandenberg Coalition! Our network promotes a strong and proud American foreign policy grounded in six foundational principles.
The U.S. is at a critical crossroads when it comes to the defense of American freedom, security and prosperity. Around the world, the U.S. faces significant national-security threats […]
By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
The Federalist
April 12, 2021
Bottom Line: Communist China may soon attempt to seize free and democratic Taiwan. If the United States has not adapted its weapons deployments in time to win against the PRC at acceptable costs, the United States will not defend Taiwan from attack, allowing the Chinese Communist Party to score a “death blow” to the United States in today’s great power competition. If, on the other hand, the CCP miscalculates U.S. and allied will to defend Taiwan, a serious and potentially “nightmarish” war would ensue. The United States and its partners should work together urgently now to prevent these outcomes.
What to Do: To bolster deterrence, the United States should provide greater strategic clarity on U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan. The U.S. should also push for greater weapons sales to Taiwan, implement a robust forward posture in the Indo-Pacific theater, fortify Guam against potential attack by the PRC, quickly produce and deploy ground-launched cruise missiles, and emphasize close cooperation with regional allies and partners, as the United States already has through the Quad partnership with India, Australia, and Japan.
By Hugo Gye
The i
April 9, 2021
Bottom Line: British Commons Foreign Affairs Chief Tom Tugendhat claimed to have been targeted by a Chinese “psyops” attack after an email in his name was sent to fellow MPs claiming he had resigned because of sanctions imposed on him by the Chinese Communist Party.
What to Do: British MPs targeted with sanctions by China are outspoken critics of the CCP. Twenty-eight former Trump administration officials were also recently sanctioned by the CCP, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Deputy National Security Adviser and Vandenberg Governing Board Member Matthew Pottinger, and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Vandenberg Advisory Board Member David Stilwell.
As this article notes, the Essex Court barrister’s chambers has recently seen members depart because they can no longer do business in Asia. The effectiveness of CCP sanctions will be reduced, as the costs of not doing business with China are also reduced. The United States should encourage solidarity within the U.S. and with our partners in standing against these measures and take steps to help insulate government officials from their effects.
By Michel Gurfinkiel
First Things
April 20, 2021
Bottom Line: French journalist Michel Gurfinkiel highlights several counter-intuitive facts regarding the March 23 Israeli general election, arguing that the results were not simply confirmation of systemic political deadlock resulting from the country’s electoral system. He asserts the following: first, whereas the election was inconclusive in terms of seats, the Netanyahu-led right clearly won in terms of the popular vote; second, Israel is now emerging as the most conservative nation in the democratic world; third, it is misleading to describe the Israeli parliamentary deadlock as a duel between two political blocs of equal strength; fourth, the 2021 election signals drastic political change among Israeli Arabs.
What to Do: Taking the longer view of the elections leads Gurfinkiel to several conclusions worth attention, including the following: the possibility of a direct, quasi-presidential election of the prime minister on an exceptional basis; the potential for Israel’s conservative turn to influence Israeli media, academia, and the courts, as well as inspire conservatives in other democratic countries; the likelihood that the “anti-Netanyahu bloc” is not strong enough to lead a government majority; and the possibility for the Abraham Accords to increasingly lead Israeli Arabs and Muslim parties to embrace Jewish-Arab cooperation alongside a growing number of Arab states. Gurfinkiel encourages Western nations to pay close attention to this development, noting that conservative policies may do a better job of addressing Muslim immigration than liberal policies like those implemented in Europe or North America.
By Haviv Rettig Gur
The Times of Israel
April 22, 2021
Bottom Line: Gur argues that Netanyahu’s attacks on Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett are a result of Netanyahu’s decision to go for a fifth election, which requires ensuring that Yair Lapid, chairman of Yesh Atid, does not piece together a coalition with Bennett after he fails. However, Gur points out that there’s a tipping point Netanyahu doesn’t see, and he may not be able to tell when he’s crossed the line at which the effect of his vilification campaign on Bennett is reversed.
What to Do: Paying attention to strategic incentives and consequences surrounding the Netanyahu-Bennett exchange may provide useful insights about the direction of Israeli politics.
By H.R. McMaster and Jonathan D.T. Ward
LA Times
March 15, 2021
Bottom Line: In the great power competition with China today, the United States must apply Reagan’s fundamental insight from the Cold War — to win against a rival of China’s magnitude requires sustained pressure against the true sources of the adversary’s power.
What to Do: The United States and its partners should restrict investment into Chinese companies and industries that support the CCP’s goals and human rights abuses. The United States should block China’s access to Western technology in areas that contribute to military advantage and construct a new trade and supply chain system that reduces dependency on China. With India, Australia, and Japan, the U.S. must maintain preponderant military power in the Indo-Pacific. In all of this, America and its allies should be confident.
By Michael McCaul and Jim Risch
Foreign Policy
March 29, 2021
Bottom Line: The Nord Stream 2 pipeline poses a significant national security risk to the United States and NATO partners, and the Biden administration must urgently implement the mandatory U.S. sanctions on all vessels and companies currently working to complete the Nord Stream 2 project.
What to Do: Urgently implement required sanctions on entities facilitating construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; do not attempt to bolster relations with Germany by placating a Russian energy project that threatens NATO and U.S. security; promote energy independence for the United States and its allies and partners and avoid dependence on foreign adversaries and competitors.
By Lisa Curtis
CNN
March 12, 2021
Bottom Line: The Biden administration is right to continue the Trump administration’s focus on strengthening the “Quad” – a loose alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.
What to Do: Bolster the Quad to deter China from hostile behavior, such as the recent clashes with India and Australia; use the Quad to lead efforts for alternative supply chains that bypass China; pool Quad resources and expand information and data exchange to enhance maritime security in the Indo-Pacific; consider expanding Quad discussions to include South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and others on an issue-by-issue basis.
By Michael J. Green, A. Wess Mitchell, Amanda J. Rothschild, Kori Schake, Daniel Twining
Foreign Policy
February 3, 2021
Bottom Line: Five former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations share their foreign-policy advice for the new team.
What to Do: Impose strategic discipline on the national security team; reform the NATO alliance to prepare for rivalry with Russia and China; don’t abandon key achievements from the Trump administration; avoid making defense excessively subservient to domestic goals; leverage America’s democratic edge to undercut authoritarian rivals.
By Arthur Herman and Nadia Schadlow
The Wall Street Journal
March 30, 2021
Bottom Line: The development and manufacturing of batteries is likely to become a modern-day arms race. Advanced batteries provide energy that can help the Pentagon execute multiple missions across long distances unhindered by the obstacles posed by adversaries. The United States will need to invest in a secure innovation and production base for advanced battery technology.
What to Do: The Defense Department must work closely with battery manufacturers and other parts of government, such as the Energy Department, to reshore this key part of America’s defense innovation base.
By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti
Atlantic Council
March 29, 2021
Bottom Line: Downsizing the ICBM force to three hundred missiles would undermine the major goals of U.S. nuclear strategy by reducing the U.S. ability to achieve its goals if deterrence fails, increasing the risk that adversaries initiate and escalate military challenges, and hindering U.S. ability to hedge against an uncertain future.
What to Do: The Department of Defense should add missiles to fill existing, unused silos, which would be a treaty-compliant and cost-effective way to strengthen U.S. nuclear posture; the United States should modestly increase the size of its ICBM force by deploying an additional twenty-five ICBMs among its existing fifty empty silos in accordance with New START limits.
By Matthew Zais
MENASource
April 6, 2021
Bottom Line: The natural gas debate between climate idealists and energy realists in the Biden administration threatens to diminish the potential and power of America’s international energy diplomacy. Leadership in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum provides the United States an opportunity to bolster its international energy diplomacy in the region and champion the geopolitical power of energy cooperation.
What to Do: The United States should actively participate and be a leader in EMGF in order to: reduce global emissions through natural gas solutions; challenge Turkish aggression by enabling regional energy cooperation and expanding beyond gas and the Mediterranean; counter Russia and China by coupling diplomatic efforts through the EMGF with a re-commitment to U.S. financial institutions like the DFC and EXIM to leverage American energy dominance and realize effective international energy diplomacy.
By Elliott Abrams
National Review
March 30, 2021
Bottom Line: The figures cited in the recent agreement for China to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years should be viewed with skepticism. Either the amounts are mostly propaganda to boost both the Chinese and Iranian regimes, or if the amounts are accurate, the regime, suffering under U.S. sanctions, is selling the country to China.
What to Do: Foreign policy experts and officials should further scrutinize the numbers in the China-Iran deal. The Iranian people should seek more transparent information about what has been agreed to in this partnership.
By Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky
The Jerusalem Post
April 12, 2021
Bottom Line: Comprehensive economic and security pacts between the United States, Iran, Israel, and other regional partners are the best way to address the insolvency of the Iranian economy and the regime’s nuclear program.
What to Do: The U.S. should lead in the negotiation of the Cyrus Accords between the United States, Iran, Israel, and other regional partners. The Cyrus Accords should require the renunciation of hostilities between the signatories, use U.S. and Israel public-private partnerships to support Iranian capacity, and promote regional cooperation to assist Iran in upgrading its energy industry and engaging in a collective security construct that would encourage stability.
By Robert Greenway
Hudson Institute
April 21, 2021
Bottom Line: Lifting sanctions before the Iranian regime changes its behavior endangers our national security, undermines the legitimacy of our authorities, erodes the impact of a vital tool with broad bipartisan support, and exposes our actions to an unnecessary legal challenge.
What to Do: As the negotiations on returning to the 2015 JCPOA continue, all sanctions outside the scope of Iran’s nuclear activities should be excluded. If Tehran seeks relief beyond the bounds of the JCPOA, we should pursue a new deal that encompasses all of Iran’s malign behavior. Revoking designations should follow the same process as employing sanctions. The administration should conduct an intelligence assessment to confirm that the conditions that prompted the designation are no longer present. Congress should require the same rigor to remove the State Sponsors of Terrorism designation as to impose it, among other vital actions.
By H.R. McMaster & Riley Walters
Washington Times
March 3, 2021
Bottom Line: The Biden Administration must “build on top” of the already strong U.S.-Japan alliance to effectively counter the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea and the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Chinese Communist Party.
What to Do: The Biden Administration should do the following: select an experienced Asia expert for ambassador to Japan, strengthen the Quad, and work with Tokyo to push through reform of the WHO and other international organizations; work with Tokyo to encourage other countries to enforce U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea and counter the CCP’s aggressive and genocidal practices; and support Japan’s continued leadership on critical regional trade and investment by clarifying the 2019 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement and encouraging the admission of Taiwan to the CPTPP Committee.
By Matthew Pottinger
Wall Street Journal
March 26, 2021
Bottom Line: The United States and the Chinese Communist Party are strategic and ideological competitors. American CEOs, their boards, and their investors have to decide which side they want to help win.
What to Do: U.S. companies should do the following: understand that it will become increasingly difficult to placate both Washington and Beijing; formally review the effects of great power competition and new regulatory, fiduciary, and reputational risks; and draw up contingencies to diversify supply chains. Above all, we must ensure that every policy, bill, and government-industry partnership increases our leverage in the competition.
By S. Paul Kapur
National Interest
April 11, 2021
Bottom Line: The Biden administration’s approach to the U.S.-India partnership has fallen short in a number of important areas. These could cause problems in the months and years ahead.
What to Do: Don’t relegate partners that are not formal treaty allies, like India and Vietnam, to second tier status; avoid publicly commenting on issues that India would prefer be handled privately; embrace the accomplishments of the Trump administration in advancing U.S.-India relations in order to build on these successes.
By Peter Berkowitz
Real Clear Politics
April 24, 2021
Bottom Line: The Biden administration’s focus straight out of the gate on implementing a progressive agenda favored by intellectual and political elites constitutes a repudiation of Trump administration concerns for working families and the middle class.
What to Do: The Administration should focus on developing programs to train a new generation of diplomats and security officials in languages and high-tech know-how.
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