The Seven Deadly Sins of a Bad Nuclear Deal

As the Trump administration debates the contours of a prospective new nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran, there has been much speculation on what that deal should entail. While the Islamic Republic of Iran is now at its weakest point in decades thanks to the strong actions of our ally Israel, a bad deal could turn the tide and strengthen the Iranian regime’s hand. That is why, in partnership with FDD Action, National Union for Democracy in Iran, Veterans on Duty, and Advancing American Freedom, the Vandenberg Coalition pulled together the most critical lessons from the failures of President Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It is our hope these lessons will help guide and inform the current administration’s approach.

The first Trump administration’s strong policies on Iran were put in place because of hard-won lessons from the failures of a bad nuclear deal. We cannot forget those lessons now.

Read these lessons and how a strong deal will preserve peace here.

State Department Reform

State Department Reform Throughout 2024, the Vandenberg Coalition engaged on a multi-month project including focus groups and interviews with dozens of foreign service officers and political appointees to address a central question: How can we reorient America’s State Department toward its core diplomatic mission? For decades, the State Department has suffered from bloat, mismanagement, and a culture that disincentives both creativity and achievement. In light of President Trump and Secretary Rubio’s emphasis on reform, there is no better time than now to propose realistic policies that can help address the State Department’s failures and make sure we build a strong,

“Hell to Pay” Policies: Reframing America’s hostage policy to disincentivize attacks against Americans

President Trump has left little to the imagination when it comes to his commitment to protect those currently
held as hostages by Hamas through his December 2 and January 7 statements that there will be “hell to pay”
if the hostages are not returned prior to his inauguration. After all, Israel was not the only country attacked on
October 7th — so was the United States. Every day American citizens remain in captivity is another day the
attack continues. While ongoing negotiations suggest news in the coming days regarding Americans held by Hamas, there are still many obstacles – the deal may not go through, for example, or it may not include all the hostages…

Deals of the Century: Solving the Middle East

This report is the product of a months-long working group composed of conservative Middle East experts.
It was convened in 2024 and 2025 under the auspices of The Vandenberg Coalition.

Hamas’ October 7 attacks, during which nearly 1,200 Israelis and over 40 Americans were slaughtered
and hundreds of others taken hostage in Gaza, should serve as a reminder that American retreat results
in chaos. The current state of affairs in the Middle East underscores this fact. Lebanese Hezbollah
threatened civilian and military targets across Israel. The Houthis’ drone and missile attacks have
disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea and regularly target civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia,
the United Arab Emirates (UAE)…

PRIMER: U.S. Response to International Criminal Court (ICC) Arrest Warrants on Israeli Officials

On the 79th anniversary of the Nuremberg Trials, the ICC affirmed its decision to issue arrest warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This decision, which would obligate the 124 member nations of the ICC to arrest these officials upon entry into their territory, is demonstrative of the erosion of moral clarity and the repugnant antisemitism that has festered within international institutions undermining the noble principles upon which they were founded. The United States must take action to hold the ICC accountable for this egregious decision and maintain its unwavering commitment not only to Israel’s security and sovereignty but to our own.

A Running Start: An Economic Strategy for Victory over the CCP

The Vandenberg Coalition partnered with the China Economic & Strategy Initiative (CESI) in the public launch of their remarkable new report, “Defeating the CCP: A Running Start.” In this conversation CESI Commissioners Randy Schriver, Dan Blumenthal, Nazak Nikakhtar, and Peter Berkowitz, moderated by Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) Michael Sobolik, discuss their new report and why now is the time the president must lead America in the development and execution of an economic strategy to address the growing threat from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)…

The Russia Policy Platform

The McCain Institute and The Vandenberg Coalition are honored to convene top conservative thought leaders to outline their view of a United States strategy for countering the Russia threat. Russia remains one of the U.S. and its democratic allies’ most destructive adversaries. No clearer example of the Russia threat exists
than its full-scale, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which has since
claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. Russia is simultaneously waging non-
kinetic warfare against the world’s democracies, including the U.S., through information manipulation, cyber-attacks, election interference, and malign finance…

Myth vs. Fact Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Battery Deployment to Israel

In response to Iran’s unprecedented ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1, the United States
temporarily deployed a single THAAD battery and 95 U.S. soldiers to Israel. This is a necessary and
welcome demonstration of the American commitment to Israel’s self-defense. Understanding that many
remain skeptical about this decision, it is critical to debunk some of the myths and concerns surrounding
the deployment of THAAD to Israel.

2024 Poll Results

The Vandenberg Coalition worked with J.L. Partners to survey 1,400 likely voters—including an oversampling of 400 undecided voters—in swing states following the second presidential debate from September 13–26. Our poll measured voters’ views of how former President Trump and Vice President Harris would handle foreign policy challenges if elected…

Taking the Iran Threat Seriously: Policy Options for Congress to Hold the Islamic Republic Accountable

America finds itself at a critical juncture. Iran’s regime continues to threaten the security of the United States and our allies, yet America’s current policies only encourage further aggression by Tehran. In its 45 years in power, Iran’s leadership has funded terrorist groups including Hamas and Hezbollah, brutalized its own people, taken Americans hostage, and plotted to assassinate Americans on U.S. soil. The Vandenberg Coalition and FDD Action partner together…

Stop-and-Go: How Washington Can Speed Up Strategic Decoupling with China

Stop-and-Go: How Washington Can Speed Up Strategic Decoupling with China When China became a member of the World Trade Organization twenty-two years ago, many U.S. policy makers believed it would result in greater economic and political freedoms for the Chinese people, international stability, and improved U.S.-China relations. Since then, the U.S. government has shifted its policy to counter China’s goal of replacing the United States as the global dominant power. Key to the United States’ efforts to counter China is ensuring our commercial engagement does not fuel the growth of China’s strategic industries, military modernization, or its surveillance state. The

A Weapon Against the West: Antisemitism and its anti-American Objectives

On July 22, 2024, The Vandenberg Coalition convened leading experts to highlight the relationship between anti-Americanism and antisemitism, showing how the toxic spread of antisemitism is part of a larger effort—spurred on by America’s adversaries—to undermine U.S. national security interests and values, sow distrust among our citizens, and ultimately chip away at the very foundation of the United States.

HOW TO WIN: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A STRONGER AND SAFER AMERICA

To America’s detriment, policymakers over the last few years have failed to address the challenges facing
the U.S. Department of Defense. From the military recruitment crisis to persistently inadequate defense
budgets, the Pentagon finds itself without the hard power tools and capabilities necessary to keep
America safe in a global threat environment dominated by great power competition. In the limited release “How to Win” series, The Vandenberg Coalition spoke with national security
experts about the threats to America’s national defense. Based on these discussions…

Call to Action: Americans Must Take the Iran Threat Seriously

Call to Action: Americans Must Take the Iran Threat Seriously The Vandenberg Coalition and FDD Action led a letter signed by Advancing American Freedom (AAF), Christians United for Israel Action Fund (CUFI Action), National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), The Philos Project, Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), Texas-Israel Alliance, United Against Nuclear Iran Action (UANI Action), Veterans on Duty, and Zionist Organization of America (ZOA). This letter, endorsed by bipartisan foreign policy and advocacy organizations, urges U.S. policy makers to refocus U.S. efforts to counter the Iranian nuclear program which is closer than ever to weaponization. The letter also provides

Myths Vs Facts on House Passed TikTok Bill

Myths Vs Facts on Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act [House Passed TikTok Bill]

TikTok Letter

The Vandenberg Coalition Letter in Support of TikTok Divestment Bill Powered By EmbedPress

American Crossroads: National Security and Foreign Policy in 2024 Election

On November 9, 2023, The Vandenberg Coalition, the nation’s premier American foreign policy advocacy organization, and The Jesse Helms Center, the country’s leading advocate of free enterprise and U.S. Constitutional principles hosted a panel on national security and foreign policy in 2024 election.

The Day After: A Plan for Gaza

The Day After: A Plan for Gaza A joint project of JINSA and The Vandenberg Coalition, this Gaza Futures Task Force convened a group of former U.S. national security officials who served in both Republican and Democratic administrations to assess the impact of the October 7 terrorist attack and strategies for establishing a post-Hamas future for Gaza that advances the interests of the United States, Israel, other key partners, the Palestinian people, and the cause of long-term stability and peace in the Middle East. In Addition to the full report, the Task Force also produced a short proposal describing its

Statement from Conservative Leaders in Support of Ukraine Aid

Conservative Leaders Call for Additional Military Aid to Ukraine
October 4, 2023 —The Vandenberg Coalition, a network of conservative national security professionals that promotes a strong and proud American foreign policy, released a public letter signed by over 100 leading conservatives urging Congressional Republicans to increase support for Ukraine.

U.S.-Supplied Weapons to Taiwan and Ukraine

It is crucial that the United States supply Taiwan with military equipment to deter and defend against a prospective Chinese attack; at the same time, the United States has a clear national interest in providing military aid to Ukraine to defeat Russia’s unprovoked invasion.
This document details what equipment the United States has pledged to Taiwan,1 what equipment the United States has pledged to Ukraine, where there are overlaps, and where there are backlogs. It is important to note that there is no way to know the exact number of any particular weapons system in U.S. stockpiles, as this information is kept classified so as to not alert adversaries of our full range of capabilities.

A Path to Victory: A Conservative Strategy to Advance American Interests in Ukraine

For more than a year, Ukrainian patriots have valiantly fought to defend their homeland from Russia’s barbaric and unprovoked invasion. Thousands of Ukrainians, military and civilian, have laid down their lives to protect their nation and their freedom in the war. In this bloody battle, Ukrainians are not asking for American forces, only American arms and aid.

Sample Africa National Security Document

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Key Issues Primer

Recent articles & reports from Vandenberg Coalition advisory board members and others on key issues facing the United States.

Around the World: Essential Foreign Policy Issues for Leaders

The world is safer when America leads. Compiled with the help of our expert network, this book of policy recommendations covers key challenges facing U.S. foreign policy & national security to arm American leaders with the knowledge to protect our interests & values in a dangerous world.

A Conservative Consensus on Key Principles of Trade and Investment

The Vandenberg Coalition hosted a panel discussion on the future of conservative trade and investment policy featuring former members of the National Economic Council, National Security Council, and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

A Conservative Consensus on Key Principles of Trade and Investment

The United States should pursue an active and pragmatic trade policy that seeks to advance its interests around the world.

What’s Missing From Mearsheimer’s Analysis of Ukraine War

Joe Cirincione | Russia Matters | July 29, 2022 Bottom Line: Prominent critics who argue that NATO expansion provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignore Moscow’s own statements of intent, minimize the criminal brutality of Russia’s actions, and deny the agency of both Russia and the allies who chose to join NATO for protection from Moscow’s predation.

Germany Has Only Itself to Blame

TVC Advisory Board Member James Kirchick | Washington Post | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: Moscow is restricting energy sales to Europe—and in particular Germany—to limit its support to Ukraine. Between the decision to phase out nuclear power and its blind loyalty to the NordStream program, Berlin has only itself to blame as the price of energy skyrockets.

Is the Pentagon at Risk of Running Out of Weapons?

Maj. Gen. John Ferrari (U.S. Army, ret.) | The Dispatch | July 27, 2022 Bottom Line: The American defense industrial base is in steep decline, calling into question our ability prevail in a long war against a capable adversary. The decline of U.S. manufacturing, dearth of STEM talent, high regulatory burden, and the uncertainty of Congressional appropriations have atrophied a once vital U.S. strategic asset.

Tehran, the Day After

TVC Advisory Board Members Reuel Marc Gerecht & Ray Takeyh | National Review | July 28, 2022 Bottom Line: A military strike on Iran’s nuclear program would be designed to eliminate the regime’s capacity to build a bomb; however, if successful it could also undermine the legitimacy of the Khamenei regime and spark a revolt from the Iranian people.

Here’s How Biden’s Attempts to Resurrect the Iran Deal is Sabotaging His Middle East Agenda

Michaela Burrow | The Daily Caller | August 1, 2022 Bottom Line: The Biden Administration’s insistence on resurrecting the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is working at cross purposes with the President’s larger agenda in the Middle East to promote economic and security cooperation between America’s allies.

CHIPS Act Won’t Help China

Oren Cass | The American Conservative | July 27, 2022 Bottom Line: Opponents of the CHIPS Act who erroneously claim that the legislation would subsidize semiconductor production in China make the perfect the enemy of the good and twist the facts of the bill to score their own political points.

China is No. 1 Domestic National Security Threat and the Biden Administration Won’t Admit It

Michael Ellis | Fox News | July 29, 2022 Bottom Line: From industrial espionage to influence operations targeting state and local politicians, the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party is as much a problem of domestic security as it is foreign policy. Nevertheless, the Biden administration has seen fit to cancel programs designed to thwart CCP activities inside the country.

Chinese Leaders Know They Have No Claim to Taiwan

Michael Rubin | National Interest | July 29, 2022 Bottom Line: Despite belligerent rhetoric from Beijing this week in response to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, the PRC’s claim to the island is baseless. PRC leaders as far back as Mao recognized Taiwan as politically distinct from the mainland.

China Warns of ‘Serious Consequences’ if Pelosi Visits Taiwan

Eryk Bagshaw | Sydney Morning Herald | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: America’s allies in the Pacific reiterate the importance of maintaining solidarity among the free peoples of the world as Beijing rattles its saber over U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan next month.

America’s Schools Are Creating a National Security Crisis

Garrett Exner | Washington Examiner | July 22, 2022 Bottom Line: As a new cohort of youth reach the prime age to enter the military, the Pentagon is facing a recruiting crisis. Schools have created a generation of Americans who fear the intellectual, physical, and emotional adversity required by military service.

The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn’t That Enough?

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense News | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: The vast majority of Pentagon spending is on autopilot, with only 10 to 15 percent shifting to address changing strategic priorities year over year. Many of America’s defense woes can be attributed to the tangle of bureaucratic barnacles that have built up on the Pentagon budgeting process over the decades.

Inside the Pentagon Slugfest Over the Future of the Fleet

Lara Seligman, Lee Hudson, & Paul McLeary | Politico | July 24, 2022 Bottom Line: The relationship between the Secretary of the Navy, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and other senior DOD officials is marked by deep disagreements over the correct size and shape of the Navy’s future fleet, limiting the Pentagon’s ability to invest in the ships and infrastructure necessary to counter Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific.

American Withdrawal Is America Last

TVC Advisory Board Member Rebeccah Heinrichs | Providence Magazine | July 22, 2022 Bottom Line: The intellectual backers of the ‘New Right’ pushing for America to retreat from the world stage loudly claim the mantle of ‘realism’, but in reality their arguments are nearly indistinguishable from those of the ‘Blame America First’ leftists of the Cold War.

Sri Lanka’s President Resigns in the Face of Massive Protests

The Economist | July 9, 2022

Bottom Line: Skyrocketing food & energy prices have driven tens of thousands of protesters into the streets of Colombo. The President, Prime Minister, and multiple cabinet members have resigned or fled the capital. Sri Lanka may be a harbinger of things to come in other countries if the cost of living continues to become less and less affordable.

Ban TikTok Now

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen | The Dispatch | July 7, 2022

Bottom Line: Recent reporting reveals that when it comes to TikTok’s data on American users—including children—the Chinese government “has access to everything.” The time has come to dispense with excuses—the federal government must ban the app in the U.S.

Are American Concessions Funding Iran’s Quest to Rebuild Its Air Force?

Michael Rubin | 1945 | July 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s air force has grown increasingly outdated and under-equipped. Now, however, Tehran may be using the Biden administration’s peace talks & sanctions relief to acquire the resources to recapitalize its aircraft fleet.

Will Biden Seize His Middle East Moment?

TVC Advisory Board Member John Hannah | Jewish Institute for the National Security of America | July 11, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite the Biden administration’s earlier attempts to appease Iran and chastise Saudi Arabia, the President’s upcoming trip to the Middle East offers a unique opportunity to bolster regional security cooperation by Israel and its Arab neighbors.

Americans’ Preparedness to Pay a Price for Supporting Ukraine Remains Robust

Shibley Telhami | Brookings Institution | July 5, 2022

Bottom Line: Recent polling shows that a strong majority of Americans want the United States government to continue supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion—even if it means higher energy prices and inflation here at home.

Fighting Back: How Democracies Can Check Authoritarian Aggression

TVC Advisory Board Members Dan Twining & Patrick Quirk | National Interest | July 11, 2022

Bottom Line: As Beijing and Moscow deepen their authoritarian partnership, the U.S. and its allies must think thoroughly about how to deploy their moral, legal, and financial resources as part of a larger campaign to help democracies resist authoritarian influence.

South Korea Ventures Into Its Indo-Pacific Strategy

Seungjoo Lee | East Asia Forum | July 11, 2022

Bottom Line: In contrast to his predecessor—who strove to balance Chinese economic integration and the U.S.-ROK security relationship—South Korea’s new president is working to deepen his country’s economic ties with America & its allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Shinzo Abe Invented the ‘Indo-Pacific’

TVC Board Member Matt Pottinger | Wall Street Journal | July 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe—who was assassinated at a campaign rally last week—died knowing that his signature geopolitical vision for a “free & open Indo-Pacific” has been embraced by Japan’s friends across the region and beyond.

Turkey and the War In Ukraine: An Opportunity to Unify NATO’s Southern Flank

Neil Bultman | Small Wars Journal | June 30, 2022

Bottom Line: As Russia becomes a more unstable actor and Turkey explores new energy sources and markets for its agricultural products, the war in Ukraine could serve as the catalyst for rapprochement between Ankara, its NATO allies, and the European Union.

Why Sweden And Finland Joining NATO Makes Perfect Sense

TVC Advisory Board Member James Jay Carafano | 19FortyFive | June 30, 2022

Bottom Line: The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO would bolster the defense of the alliance’s northern members. With the appetite for Nordic neutrality fast diminishing, alliance membership for Sweden and Finland is a rare win-win decision for all involved.

Don’t Let Russia Dominate the Strategic Concept

Jordan Becker, Douglas Lute, & Simon Smith | War on the Rocks | June 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Although the war in Ukraine took center stage at NATO’s summit in Madrid last week, U.S. focus on Russian aggression cannot come at the exclusion of the persistent national security threat posed by China, which is likely to be a rival for decades.

NATO Finds Old Purpose in Russia, New One in China

Mailys Pene-Lassus | Nikkei Asia | July 1, 2022

Bottom Line: War in Europe has renewed NATO’s purpose as the bulwark against Russian aggression, but for the first time, the alliance has also turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific and the “systemic challenges” posed by the People’s Republic of China.

Russia and NATO: How Did We Get Here and How Should We Respond?

Robert Pszczel | Royal United Services Institute | June 29, 2022

Bottom Line: Contra the narrative that NATO has provoked Russian aggression, the alliance has prioritized conflict prevention for decades. NATO must view Russia’s war on Ukraine with clear eyes and commit to a policy of military containment of aggression.

Iran’s Steel Industry Halted by Cyber Attack

Yonah Jeremy Bob | The Jerusalem Post | June 27, 2022

Bottom Line: The operations of one of Iran’s largest steel companies have ground to a halt following a cyber attack launched by the hacktivist group Predatory Sparrow in retaliation against “Tehran’s terrorist regime.”

Concerns Grow That India is ‘Back Door’ Into Europe for Russian Oil

Alex Lawson | The Guardian | June 26, 2022

Bottom Line: As European countries swear off Russian “blood oil,” Indian refineries continue to launder Moscow’s product onto the international market. Ukraine’s president argues that European companies using this oil are complicit in Moscow’s war crimes.

Xi Rallies BRICS Against Sanctions ‘Abuse,’ Cold War Mentality

CK Tan | Nikkei Asia | June 23, 2022

Bottom Line: At a recent summit, the Chinese president attempted to dissuade the rising “BRICS” countries from aligning themselves with Western “hegemony” and deployed practiced rhetoric to shield Moscow from responsibility for its crimes in Ukraine.

Now is the Time to Expose Chinese Corruption

TVC Advisory Board Member Nate Sibley | The Wall Street Journal | June 26, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite Xi’s vaunted anti-corruption campaign, the CCP continues to operate as a kleptocratic regime. The West can erode the party’s domestic legitimacy and international influence by drawing attention to corruption emanating from Beijing.

The Other Big Lessons That the U.S. Army Should Learn From Ukraine

David Barno & Nora Bensahel | War on the Rocks | June 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers the U.S. military a valuable case study into the changing character of contemporary warfare. However, the Army in particular needs to draw the right lessons from this conflict in order to best prepare for the future.

Germany’s New Resolve on Russia is Already Flagging

Peter Rough | Foreign Policy | June 16, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite initial pledges of support for the defense of Ukraine, Germany’s government does not appear to view Moscow as a major threat. Berlin continues to slow-roll military aid and may yet walk back its promised investment in NATO defenses.

The U.S. Military Needs An On-Time Defense Budget

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen | 19FortyFive | June 23, 2022

Bottom Line: With inflation on the rise, Congress plans to supplement the Biden administration’s FY23 defense budget request. However, a delay in passing the budget would wipe out any benefits of a top line funding increase, decimating military readiness.

The Navy Is Broken. Congress Must Launch a Commission to Find a Path Forward

Maj. Gen. John Ferrari (USA, ret.)

Breaking Defense

June 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Decades of poor management, failed modernization projects, and unsustainable shipbuilding programs have caused the Navy to fall into disrepair. Congress must create an independent commission like those applied to the post-Vietnam “hollow” U.S. Army to chart a new course for the Navy in the twenty-first century.

Nicaragua Opens the Door for Russian Troops to Land in Central America

MercoPress

June 10, 2022

Bottom Line: President Ortega has invited Russian forces to enter Nicaragua and join in training exercises and policing missions alongside the country’s military. Russian media has celebrated the opportunity to deploy troops in the United States’ backyard.

The Geopolitics of Honduras’s Special Economic Zones

Ryan C. Berg & Evan Ellis

CSIS

June 9, 2022

Bottom Line: China has worked to develop exploitive economic ties to multiple Central American countries. Investing in existing Honduran economic institutions offers the U.S. an opportunity to counter PRC influence in the region.

Bad News for Biden: Congress Cooling on Idea of an Iran Deal

TVC Advisory Board Member Danielle Pletka

The Dispatch

June 9, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration continues to pursue a renewal of the Iran nuclear deal; however, with midterm elections looming the incentives for both the U.S. Congress and Tehran to accede to a new agreement are fast diminishing.

War in Ukraine Is Destabilizing the Middle East and North Africa

Saeed Ghasseminejad

National Interest

June 13, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s war has stalled grain exports which feed tens of millions of people across the Middle East & North Africa. Domestic unrest in countries including Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran will continue to grow as long as food remains scarce and expensive.

The Ukraine War and the New Meaning of Security Guarantees for the Indo-Pacific

John Raine

IISS

June 8, 2022

Bottom Line: As Russia’s war on Ukraine challenges the security of Europe, the West’s response hints at how future security guarantees may operate in the Indo-Pacific, with emphasis on economic, diplomatic, and technological leverage over sheer military mass.

Russia’s War Exacerbates Global Food Crisis

Bottom Line Up Front: ● Russia’s war of aggression has nearly halted grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, destabilizing a fragile world food market already stressed by the pandemic and recent droughts. ● Prices of grain and other staple crops are up 50 percent on world markets, which the UN estimates could drive hundreds of millions into food insecurity and provoke famine in the developing world. ● Food instability will continue to drive up costs for Americans here at home and could destabilize countries in the developing world, exacerbating the risk of conflict and terrorism. Read the Full Document

How the Pro-Iran Lobby Became the Russia Appeasement Lobby

Seth J. Frantzman

The Jerusalem Post

May 9, 2022

Bottom Line: The voices who insisted that the United States needed to strike a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons at any price are now arguing Washington cannot aid Ukraine for risk of war with Russia. The underlying sentiment is the same: appease brutal dictators.

Ukraine as the New Martyr Nation

Mark Tooley

Providence Magazine

May 5, 2022

Bottom Line: Poland was brutalized by Nazis and Soviets alike in the 20th century but emerged victorious and independent by century’s end. Like Poland before it, Ukraine has found the strength to defend itself and inspires others to resist aggression.

‘Pretty Gross’: How a Network of Retired Lawmakers Boosts CCP Influence in Washington

Chuck Ross

The Washington Free Beacon

May 6, 2022

Bottom Line: As organizations inside the Beltway and across America work to cut ties with China, the Association of Former Members of Congress remains deeply enmeshed with a known CCP United Front organization working to influence U.S. opinion & policy.

Australia’s Thin Red Line on China in the Solomons

Richard Herr

Australian Strategic Policy Institute

May 5, 2022

Bottom Line: China’s recent security pact with the nearby Solomon Islands has become a campaign issue in Australia’s upcoming federal elections, with Prime Minister Morrison vowing to take action if China builds naval bases in the archipelago.

Putin and Xi Are Accelerating Their Push Against Democracy. Here’s How the U.S. Can Fight Back.

TVC Advisory Board Member Patrick Quirk with David O. Shullman

The Atlantic Council

May 6, 2022

Bottom Line: The leaders of both Russia and China believe the spread of democracy is a threat to their grip on power. Putin & Xi promote authoritarianism around the world in order to undermine American power and influence and bolster their own security.

What Would Finland Bring to the Table for NATO?

Heljä Ossa and Tommi Koivula

War On the Rocks

May 9, 2022

Bottom Line: Two Finnish defense researchers argue that if Finland applies for NATO membership this month, the Nordic republic would punch well above its weight militarily. Finland’s modern equipment, well-trained reserve corps, strong culture of self-defense, and history of staring down Russia would make it a valuable member of the alliance.

Foil the Financiers of Iran’s Terrorism

TVC Advisory Board Member Richard Goldberg

The Wall Street Journal

May 1, 2022

Bottom Line: Biden appears to have rejected Iran’s demand to remove the IRGC from the U.S. list for “foreign terrorist organizations.” The administration should go further and refuse to lift sanctions on the banks that finance the organization’s terror campaigns.

Present Your China Contingency Plan at Your Next Board Meeting

TVC Advisory Board Member Keith Krach

Fortune

April 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Board directors and company officers have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shown the risks of investing in authoritarian regimes. Companies must prepare now to insulate themselves from Xi Jinping & the CCP.

The Dark Side of AI

TVC Advisory Board Member Bonnie Glick & Kennedy Lee

Deseret News

April 27, 2022

Bottom Line: While artificial intelligence is often presented as a net-good for humanity, technology poses a grave risk to religious liberty. From China to Venezuela to Iran, governments are using AI to surveil, track, and oppress religious minorities.

Western Leaders Must Prepare the Public for a War Economy

Martin Sandbu

The Financial Times

May 1, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin has weaponized energy & food supplies in his war on Ukraine. Whether the West aids Ukraine or not, decisions made in Moscow will drive up prices for consumers here at home and around the world. That cannot stop us from aiding Kyiv.

Send Ukraine Cyber Help, Not Bureaucratic Gridlock

Michael Ellis & Dustin Carmack

RealClear Defense

April 26, 2022

Bottom Line: The NSC should remove the bureaucratic roadblocks preventing the Pentagon’s offensive cyber operators from giving Ukraine ready-made capabilities to disable and destroy Russian networks, just like we supply Ukraine with physical weapons.

The U.S. Needs a New Approach to Producing Weapons. Just Look at Ukraine.

Thomas G. Mahnken

Defense News

April 26, 2022

Bottom Line: U.S. & allied support for Ukraine has revealed both the value of precision munitions on the modern battlefield and the fact that the Western defense industrial base is currently inadequate to provide a steady stream of advanced weapons to allied militaries during a high-intensity, protracted conflict with either China or Russia.

President Biden, Why is Your National Security Strategy Still Unavailable?

TVC Advisory Board Member Clifford D. May

The Washington Times

April 28, 2022

Bottom Line: After a year in office, why have we yet to see President Biden’s strategy for confronting America’s adversaries? Is the administration prepared to lead the free world against the tyrannical regimes of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea?

Red Flags for Faith-Based Liberty in Hong Kong

Susan Crabtree

RealClear Policy

April 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Under the flag of draconian COVID lockdowns, the CCP once again prevented Chinese Christians in Hong Kong & on the mainland from gathering to celebrate Easter. The CCP routinely oppresses Christians and other religious minorities in China.

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Why America Must Ensure Taiwan is Included

Russell Hsiao
1945
April 21, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration has taken laudable steps to bring together market-based democratic states to confront the PRC. In the Indo-Pacific, the United States cannot afford to try to appease Beijing by leaving Taiwan out of multilateral initiatives.

Growing Ambitions: On China-Solomon Islands Pact

The Hindu Editorial Board

April 22, 2022

Bottom Line: The PRC’s recently-sealed military & security pact with the Solomon Islands left American policymakers scrambling to catch up. The deal confirms Beijing’s intention to secure a strategic foothold astride the sea lines of communication between the U.S. and its major Indo-Pacific allies, opening a new front in the New Cold War.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Must Be Dismantled, Not Delisted

TVC Advisory Board Member David Shedd

The National Interest

April 21, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration foolishly believes it can change Iranian regime’s behavior by returning to the 2015 nuclear deal. Revoking the IRGC’s terrorism designation would only serve to reward Tehran for its long track record of backing terrorist violence.

Russia is Set to Weaponize the Food Supply in Their Latest Assault on Ukraine

Maria Chapila

Independent Women’s Forum

April 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia is currently preventing all agricultural exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea. Tens of millions of people in dozens of countries dependent on Ukrainian grain for survival face the prospect of famine as long as the war continues.

How Joe Biden is Vetoing American Interests in the UN

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

April 25, 2022

Bottom Line: The U.S. veto over binding decisions by the United Nations protects American interests from being steamrolled by an anti-American majority. However, the Biden administration does not seem worried about the ongoing attempt by the General Assembly to seize review power over Security Council vetoes.

China’s Military-Business Fund Aims to Secure War Tech

Focus Taiwan

Bottom Line: Business & military institutions in the PRC have made significant investments in a venture capital fund aimed at securing access to high-end war technology and circumventing U.S.-led sanctions in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.

The West Must Not Let Xi Jinping Protect Putin and Give the CCP Another “Strategic Opportunity”

Providence Magazine

Bottom Line: Putin’s struggle to conquer Ukraine is likely to drive Russia and China closer together, not farther apart. The West cannot pretend that Xi will give up any of his geopolitical leverage over Russia nor that he has abandoned his plan to invade Taiwan.

The Navy Owes Congress Independent Honesty, Not Joint Harmony

CIMSEC

Bottom Line: Generations of bureaucratic centralization have deprived the military services of independence in strategic planning and budget advocacy. As Biden’s FY23 budget proposes cutting the size of the fleet, the Navy needs to remember it owes Congress an independent professional assessment of its needs—not the executive branch party line.

The War at Sea: Naval Power Has Been the Ukraine War’s Most Underrated Element

RealClear Defense

Bottom Line: Last week, Ukrainian forces sunk the Russian cruiser Moskva—the largest warship lost to enemy action since WWII. The action highlights the fundamental naval dimension of the conflict as Putin seeks to seize control of the Black Sea coast.

Top Trump White House Staffers: We Want to Arm Ukraine to the Teeth—Why Won’t Biden Do It?

Western Journal

Bottom Line: Former senior Trump administration officials argue that ‘America First’ does not equate to ‘isolationism’. The U.S. can and should provide military aid to Ukrainians fighting for their independence while enhancing American strength at home.

Helping Ukraine Win Against Russia is a Vital NATO Interest

Wall Street Journal

Bottom Line: Ukraine shares the West’s aspiration for liberty that is based on fundamental human rights, not race or nationality. More than just holding the line against Russian invasion, it is in NATO’s interest for Ukraine to win this war.

America Needs to Win the Clean Energy Arms Race

RealClear Politics

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made clear the need to change how we think about the nexus between energy security & national security. We can only prevent American dependence on Russia and China by prioritizing short & medium term investments in American oil & gas and long term investments in clean energy.

Foreign Cash Flees China As Investors Shun Autocracies

Takeshi Kihara & Akira Inujima

Nikkei Asia

April 10, 2022

Bottom Line: China has seen “unprecedented” outflows of foreign capital since the beginning of 2022. Sanctions on Russia over Ukraine may be pushing investors to look at China in a new light and reevaluate the risk inherent in investing in autocratic regimes.

Balkanization is the Future of the Global Economy

Brad Glosserman

Japan Times

April 5, 2022

Bottom Line: On top of the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 economic dislocation, we are now seeing a flurry of sanctions and embargoes in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the time being, global economic integration may have crested.

A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Response Would Americans Support?

TVC Advisory Board Member Victoria Coates

1945

April 11, 2022

Bottom Line: If China invades Taiwan, there is broad support among the American people of all political persuasions for economic sanctions and military aid to help the island nation defend itself. Only six percent of Americans think we should to nothing.

Virginia’s Universities Should Not Support China’s Military

Craig Singleton

Washington Post

April 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Virginia’s public universities are involved in a myriad of programs that support the Chinese military and security services. They provide a snapshot of the work the PRC has done to co-opt American institutions of higher education for nefarious ends.

Iran’s Master Class in Evading Sanctions

TVC Advisory Board Member Mark Dubowitz and Matthew Zweig

Wall Street Journal

April 5, 2022

Bottom Line: Iran has evolved sophisticated measures to get around U.S. nuclear weapons & terrorism sanctions. U.S. policymakers need to learn from past mistakes if they want to stop Tehran from helping Moscow evade punishment for its invasion of Ukraine.

How Japan Can Help Nudge India Away from Russia

Ryosuke Hanada

The Lowy Institute Interpreter

April 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Following Japanese PM Kishida’s recent visit to New Delhi, India issued a statement slightly more critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its prior unilateral pronouncements, highlighting the value of the nascent “Quad” framework.

Finland, Rattled By Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, Thinks the Unthinkable—NATO Membership

TVC Advisory Board Member Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu

New York Sun

April 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Finland survived the Cold War through neutrality. Just a few short weeks ago, it seemed unthinkable that Finland would join NATO, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finnish public support for joining the alliance has skyrocketed to 60 percent.

The Cold War Never Ended

Stephen Kotkin

Foreign Affairs

April 10, 2022

Bottom Line: The end of the original Cold War was a mirage. Russia is plagued by the same geopolitical constraints and autocratic political system as it was during the Cold War, leading Putin to strike at Ukraine in the same manner as Soviet leaders before him.

Roadmap for a Stronger Defense Strategy

RealClear Defense

Bottom Line: We cannot afford to rely on alliances alone to keep the peace in Europe or Asia. The time has come to fashion a national security strategy that builds a military sufficient to defeat our primary adversary, China, while effectively deterring Russia & Iran.

The $773 Billion Question: Inflation’s Impact on Defense Spending

March 28, 2022

Inflation May Shrink Biden’s Big Defense Plan

Roll Call

Bottom Line: Biden’s defense budget is allegedly the largest of all time, but with record inflation, it has less buying power than last year’s. Uncontrolled inflation stands to further erode DOD’s ability to buy the products and services required for national defense.

Inflation is the New Sequestration

Defense One

Bottom Line: Despite the Pentagon Comptroller’s claim that DOD will be less affected by inflation than the general economy, we know the opposite is true. Congress must use its authority to fully address the impacts of inflation on the FY23 defense budget.

The Defense Budget We Need

National Review

Bottom Line: The long peace is over. Since the Cold War we have systematically underfunded the Defense Department for the missions asked of it. To make up for lost time, DOD’s budget must increase by at least 3-5% above the rate of inflation every year.

Are the Navy’s Plans for a 355-ship Fleet Dead?

Sandboxx

Bottom Line: Congress has mandated for years that the Navy grow to 355+ ships. Biden’s budget cuts the fleet to 280 and puts us on a path for the Chinese Navy to be double the size of America’s within a decade.

We Chose Decline

Substack

Bottom Line: By cutting the size of the U.S. Navy, Biden’s FY23 defense budget doesn’t just ensure that China will replace us as the premier world power—it hands supremacy to the PRC on a silver platter.

Biden’s Plan to Cut Navy Ships: Handing China Victory at Sea

The Hill

Bottom Line: Just as NATO weakness invited Russian aggression against Ukraine, Biden’s plans to cut the size of the Navy will galvanize Chinese aggression against our allies, partners, and interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Biden’s Weak Defense Budget

March 31, 2022

Left Behind in Afghanistan

As the world rightly focuses on the war in Ukraine, it is critical that we
do not forget the crisis generated by America’s premature withdrawal
from Afghanistan. There are currently thousands of Afghan National Army
veterans who fought alongside U.S. troops being hunted by the Taliban on
a daily basis. At the same time, Afghanistan’s women and girls
continue to have their lives and livelihoods taken from them.

Fertiliser Inflation Presages A Global Food Supply Crisis

Rana Forodoohar

Financial Times

March 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Not only are Russia and Ukraine both top-five grain exporters, but Russia is the second largest producer of fertilizer in the world. Expect sharp rises in food prices and dislocation in global food markets for years to come.

Don’t Let Putin’s War in Ukraine Damage U.S.-India Ties

Jeff M. Smith

RealClear World

March 22, 2022

Bottom Line: American policymakers have been frustrated by New Delhi’s reluctance to take a hard line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the U.S. must see past this disagreement and continue to work with India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

Germany’s Progressives Have a Putin Problem

Aaron Gasch Burnett

The Spectator

March 27, 2022

Bottom Line: The ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has a long history of cozy relations with Moscow. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has little choice but to quickly remedy his party’s biggest and most shameful mistake.

How Russia’s War on Ukraine Will Change the World

TVC Advisory Board Member John Hillen

National Review

March 26, 2022

Bottom Line: It is not yet clear how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will end now that Putin’s first strike has been blunted. However, from Beijing to Tehran to Washington, leaders are adjusting their approach to existing problems based on Moscow’s experience.

Shields Up! The Biden Administration Tells Industry to Prepare for Russian Cyber Attacks

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen

The Dispatch

March 24, 2022

Bottom Line: Ransomware and similar attacks by non-government hackers are the most likely threat against American infrastructure. Cyber attacks by Russian military or intelligence services would be a significant escalation that could not go unpunished.

Without Logistics Our Weapons ‘Become Paperweights’

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen

AEI Blog

March 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Unparalleled logistical capability has allowed the U.S. military to surge troops to NATO’s eastern front virtually overnight. However, we must invest now in peacetime to ensure we have the logistics networks we will need when crisis strikes.

Saint Javelin of Limited Supply

John Schaus

CSIS

March 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Supporting Ukraine has shown the precariousness of military manufacturing and the need to invest in greater capacity. Canada has run out of munitions to donate. The U.S. has sent half of the Javelin missiles it purchased over the past decade. This level of support is unsustainable in the long run without additional production.

Judge the CHIPs Act as Defense Policy, Not Industrial Policy

TVC Advisory Board Member Will Inboden (with Adam Klein)

The Hill

March 20, 2022

Bottom Line: Supply of high-end semiconductors is essential to U.S. qualitative military advantage. Those who criticize the CHIPs Act for distorting the market need to recognize that its aim is to help secure this critical supply chain for U.S. industry & the military.

How Blue State Policies Are Making America More Dependent on Hostile Foreign Oil

Isaac Schorr

National Review

March 21, 2022

Bottom Line: Led by California and New York, for years blue state governors have held up and cancelled new exploration, production, and pipelines that would mitigate American dependence on foreign oil and gas, driving up prices for working Americans in the process.

Three Critical Defense Reallocations for U.S. Strategic Competition with China

Harrison Bradon Morgan

Strategy Bridge

March 15, 2022

Bottom Line: To meet the challenge of great power competition, DoD must reallocate scarce resources. It can start by shrinking the Army to grow the fleet, re-deploying assets to the Indo-Pacific, and investing in cognitive—not just technological—capabilities.

The U.S. Needs a National Security Strategy

The Forum for American Leadership

March 18, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration is behind schedule releasing its National Security Strategy. The U.S. cannot afford to meet complex challenges like Ukraine without the overarching grand strategic guidance provided by the NSS.

The Ukraine Crisis Shows the Need for a Bigger Defense Budget

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen

The Dispatch

March 17, 2022

Bottom Line: To deter China and Russia, DoD needs predictable, flexible, and robust budgets. Congress must take the lead to end continuing destructive resolutions and ensure DoD’s budget grows above the rate of inflation.

Whither Hybrid War?

Seth Cropsey

RealClear Defense

March 15, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows us that the direct application of force still takes precedence over the much-vaunted strategy of “hybrid war” that analysts have long described as a game-changer for Russia on the battlefield.

Ukraine’s Lessons for Taiwan

Jeffrey W. Hornung

War on the Rocks

March 17, 2022

Bottom Line: Rather than treating a Chinese victory over Taiwan as inevitable, the example of Ukraine shows us that the U.S. and its allies should start reinforcing the island now to help Taipei defend itself against communist aggression.

Russia, China, and the New Cold War

Interview with TVC Board Member Matt Pottinger

Adam O’Neal

The Wall Street Journal

March 18, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine evokes stark parallels to the Korean War, which helped wake up the West to the treat posed by communism. “We would be remiss not to learn lessons from the original Cold War, not least because we won.”

Vandenberg Afghanistan Report

We convened a diverse group of national security professionals to provide policy recommendations for the Biden administration and Congress in the wake of the 2021 Afghanistan crisis.

This Isn’t Obama’s Iran Deal. It’s Much, Much Worse

Tablet Magazine

Bottom Line: The Biden administration may try to sell its upcoming Iran deal as a “return” to pre-Trump status quo, but it is anything but. The U.S. will lift sanctions on dozens of organizations and individuals responsible for terrorist violence against civilians, the Iranian people, and American service members in exchange for little in return.

The Coming Surrender to Iran

The Dispatch

Bottom Line: While the world’s attention has been focused on Ukraine, the Biden administration’s negotiators have been hard at work making dramatic concessions to Iran in ongoing nuclear negotiations—with the help of Russia, no less!

‘Limited’ Wars Could Make a Bloody Return

USNI Proceedings

Bottom Line: In the age of nuclear weapons, we are primed to think of mutual deterrence as a guarantee against great power war. But history is replete with examples of great powers fighting near-total wars below the existential level.

Targeting Putin’s Kleptocracy: A Strategic Approach During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Hudson Institute

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted numerous calls to “sanction the oligarchs” and “seize Putin’s wealth”. But the complex, kleptocratic governance structure of Russia means that this is not as straightforward a task as many in the West assume.

Space and Time: With The Costs of War Mounting and His Army in Disarray Putin is Running Out of Options

Substack

Bottom Line: Russian front lines are stagnating and time is not on Moscow’s side. In a long war the ability to feed the war machine over time becomes paramount. The Kremlin should fear protracted fighting against a Ukrainian force supplied by the U.S. and Europe.

Four Ways the War in Ukraine Might End

Atlantic Council

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not shaping up to be the quick and easy strike he had hoped. However, whether by a miraculous Ukrainian victory, a protracted Russian quagmire, partition, or escalation, like all wars this conflict will one day end.

Why China Is Struggling to Deal with Russia’s War in Ukraine

Ian Johnson & Kathy Huang

Council on Foreign Relations

February 25, 2022

Bottom Line: China is in an awkward position, as evidenced by its abstention from the UN Security Council vote condemning Russia’s invasion. Although Beijing and Moscow enjoy close ties, respecting territorial integrity is a core pillar of Chinese foreign policy.

Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine May Supercharge Nuclear Proliferation

Bradley Bowman, Ryan Probst, & Anthony Ruggiero

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

February 25, 2022

Bottom Line: In 1994, Ukraine gave up its ex-Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity from the U.S., UK, and Russia. Russia’s invasion may cause other states to decide they need nuclear weapons to guarantee their sovereignty.

Russia’s Financial Meltdown and the Global Dollar System

Adam Tooze

Substack

February 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Economic sanctions imposed on Russia last week are already having an effect at market open Monday. Most devastating of all: the threat to freeze Russia’s Central Bank out of European financial networks.

Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Scrambled Biden’s Green Agenda

Susan Crabtree

RealClear Politics

February 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Oil & gas exports are Russia’s economic lifeblood, but they are conspicuously untouched by the Biden administration’s sanctions package against Moscow. Ramping up energy production at home could crater the Kremlin’s revenue to wage war, but at the expense of the President’s climate agenda.

How to Respond to the Russian War of Aggression

Forum for American Leadership

February 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Responsibility for this war lies with Putin alone, but the Biden administration’s vacillation towards Russia made conflict more likely. Now is the time for the President to take decisive action to deter further aggression.

What Should the United States Do Now?

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen

The Dispatch

February 26, 2022

Bottom Line: The United States can and should aid the Ukrainian war effort by taking offensive cyber action against Russian-aligned non-state cyber actors, providing a flow of weapons and battlefield intelligence to Kyiv, and dialing sanctions up to “11.”

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine will Impact Ohioans

Rhonda Bletner

Galion Inquirer

February 26, 2022

Bottom Line: From higher gas prices at the pump to disrupted supply chains and diverted European investment in the United States, Ohio native and TVC Advisory Board member Rebeccah Heinrichs details how Americans will feel the effects of Putin’s aggression here at home.

The Long Weekend That Changed History

Richard Fontaine

The Atlantic

March 1, 2022

Bottom Line: The post-Cold War era may have just ended overnight. Mere days ago, Russia was viewed in Washington and European capitals as a “sullen and revisionist power.” Today, Western leaders understand Moscow presents a clear and present danger.

Even an ‘Asia First’ Strategy Needs to Deter Russia in Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Members Michael J. Green and Gabriel Scheinmann

Foreign Policy

February 17, 2022

Bottom Line: Competition with China can only be approached as part of a comprehensive global strategy, not a regional “Asia first” formulation. Washington cannot effectively resist China in the east by ignoring Ukraine in the west.

Russia’s Losing Hand in Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Member Seth G. Jones (with Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)

CSIS Briefs

February 18, 2022

Bottom Line: The U.S. and Europe should be prepared to wage a sustained diplomatic, economic, military aid, and humanitarian campaign to assist Ukraine and raise the price for Russia of invasion.

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Target of Putin’s Aggression

TVC Advisory Board Member David J. Kramer (with Ian Kelly)

The Bulwark

February 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is only part of a larger strategy to keep Russia’s neighbors aligned with Moscow rather than looking towards the West.

The Pros and Cons of ‘Deterrence by Disclosure’

TVC Board Member Eric Edelman

The Dispatch

February 21, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration has played a weak hand well by routinely making select intelligence about Russian invasion preparations public, however, this policy still entails risks and leaves much to be desired.

‘Kill Your Commanding Officer’: On the Front Lines of Putin’s Digital War With Ukraine

Kenneth R. Rosen

POLITICO

February 15, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia has been engaged in a protracted cyber- and psychological-warfare campaign targeting Ukrainian service members as preparation for an invasion.

Even if Russia Attacks, Ukraine’s Fall is Not Predestined

Illia Ponomarenko

Kyiv Independent

February 15, 2022

Bottom Line: After eight years of proxy war, the Ukrainian military and people are more ready to defend their country now than they were when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. If the nation is willing to fight, no fate is predestined.

5 Key Questions That Could Determine The Shape of Russia’s Invasion

Dave Lawler

Axios

February 22, 2022

Bottom Line: The situation on the ground in Ukraine will be shaped by multiple decisions in the next few days, including whether and how Russian forces move beyond separatist-controlled portions of the Donbas.

Russia Likely to Pursue Phased Invasion of Unoccupied Ukrainian Territory

TVC Advisory Board Member Fred Kagan (with Mason Clark)

AEI Critical Threats Project

February 21, 2022

Bottom Line: Russian troops will move to seize Ukrainian territory in the coming days supported by a sustained air and missile campaign against unoccupied Ukraine. The Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics recognized as independent by Putin extend far beyond territory currently under the control of separatist forces.

Statement on the Russian War of Aggression Against Ukraine

Vandenberg Open Letter to Amnesty International

We urge the board members of the Amnesty International to condemn the recent anti-Semitic report published by their organization.

Democrats Press Biden on Iran as Window for Deal Narrows

Katherine Doyle

Washington Examiner

February 13, 2022

Bottom Line: Failure to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran would be a major blow to the Biden administration’s foreign policy aims. The President’s negotiating team is coming under intense scrutiny from members of his own party on Capitol Hill.

Iran Nuclear Deal Will Be a Tough Sell in Congress

TVC Advisory Board Member Stephen Rademaker

Al-Monitor

February 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Any nuclear deal with Iran must by law be submitted to Congress for review. Based on bipartisan sentiment in both chambers, only an agreement that enacts meaningful, long-term nuclear restrictions is likely to pass congressional muster.

Elemental Strategy: Countering Chinese Communist Party Efforts to Dominate the Rare Earth Industry

Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

February 9, 2022

Bottom Line: Long-term U.S. success in great power competition depends on securing critical supply chains. For decades, however, China has been maneuvering to control the world’s supply of rare earth elements essential to producing high-end electronics.

Another University Learns the Hard Way About Chinese Censorship on Campus

Josh Rogin

Washington Post

February 9, 2022

Bottom Line: George Washington University’s administration found itself under pressure from CCP-backed student protesters over artwork by a Chinese exile displayed on campus. Led by groups like the Athenai Institute, many universities are realizing the importance of divesting from state-backed Chinese companies complicit in Uyghur genocide and PLA military modernization.

Why the West’s Diplomacy with Russia Keeps Failing

Anne Applebaum

The Atlantic

February 12, 2022

Bottom Line: Western diplomats fundamentally misapprehend Russian leaders’ priorities when they emphasize dialogue, diplomacy, and reputation in negotiations. In truth, Foreign Minister Lavrov and his officials respect strength and consequences.

The U.S. Should Want a Cold War with China

TVC Advisory Board Member Gabe Scheinmann

The Wall Street Journal

February 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Contrary to popular belief, a new Cold War with China makes direct military confrontation between the U.S. and the PRC less—not more—likely. Moreover, a Cold War would be an eminently winnable struggle for the U.S. and its allies.

The Old—and Incoherent—Foreign Policy of the New Right

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen

The Dispatch

February 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Arguments for restraint advanced in a recent NYT article by self-proclaimed national conservatives are worth taking seriously, but on sober reflection they are neither novel nor particularly compelling and rely heavily on a strawman characterization of policymakers as a monolithic, hawkish blob.

Experts Put Aside Differences to Offer Next Steps on Afghanistan

Susan Crabtree

RealClear Politics

February 16, 2022

RCP provides a detailed account of the Vandenberg Coalition’s Afghanistan Working Group and how our experts joined forces to ensure the United States could address the full security consequences of the crisis.

Xi Jinping and the CCP’s Expanding Technology Agenda

Kai von Carnap

RealClear Defense

February 7, 2022

Bottom Line: CCP senior leadership devote significant time to learning about new technologies in a formal setting in order to better bend them to the Party’s will. Chinese efforts to standardize emerging technologies should be viewed with caution in this light.

Beijing Olympics: The New Frontline in the U.S.-China Cold War

Demetri Sevastopulo, Christopher Grimes, Sara Germano, and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson

Financial Times

February 3, 2022

Bottom Line: Multinational corporations sponsoring the 2022 Olympics are staying silent on the issue of Uyghur genocide and hope they can avoid getting caught in the cross-hairs of the heightening political disputes between Washington and Beijing.

The Lessons of Britain’s Commitment to Belgium for U.S. Policy on the Taiwan Strait

Connor Pfeiffer

Providence Magazine

February 1, 2022

Bottom Line: Like Belgium, Taiwan is a small country occupying an exposed, strategic position. The history of London’s 19th century security commitments to the former indicate that strategic clarity backed by diplomacy and strong military capabilities is essential if Washington is to successfully deter a Chinese invasion of the latter.

Why Conservatives Should Be Eager to Deter Putin on Ukraine

Rich Lowry

POLITICO

February 3, 2022

Bottom Line: While an increasingly influential faction on the right argues that we have no business defending Ukraine, the country should still matter to conservatives enough to deter Putin and impose costs on his regime if he invades.

Amnesty International Joins the Anti-Israel Jackals

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

February 2, 2022

Bottom Line: Amnesty International’s latest report is laced with spurious claims and invective against Israel, echoing language from the Soviet playbook and holding Israel to standards expected of no other state.

Putin’s Green Fifth Column

Robert Zubrin

National Review

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: German dependence on Russian natural gas finances Putin’s military adventures—and prevents Berlin from standing up to Moscow’s bullying. That dependence is entirely the responsibility of the country’s short-sighted green movement, which shuttered German nuclear plants and made the country more dependent on carbon fuels.

Pentagon Under Fire for Not Sending Ukraine the Weapons it Needs

Jamie McIntyre

Washington Examiner

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: The Pentagon is happy to talk about the dollar-value of the military equipment it is sending to Ukraine, but has not been supplying Kyiv with the surface-to-air missiles critical to repelling a Russian attack.

Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Member Fred Kagan (et al.)

Institute for the Study of War

January 27, 2022

Bottom Line: An invasion of Ukraine would advance Putin’s goal of regaining control over the country while simultaneously undermining Moscow’s objective of fracturing the unity of the NATO alliance.

Xi Jinping is Watching His Back

Craig Singleton

Foreign Policy

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: The Chinese president has been hunkered down in Beijing for the past 700 days. While he may appear to be focused on the COVID pandemic, the safer bet is that Xi’s reclusiveness is due to growing fears of a challenge to his power from within the CCP.

U.S. Underinvesting in 6G

Jon Harper

National Defense Magazine

January 31, 2022

Bottom Line: While policymakers have woken up to the importance of competing with China for dominance in 5G network development, the U.S. may already be falling behind the curve in the creation of its eventual successors.

Iran Nuclear Talks in Vienna Won’t Result in a Better Deal

TVC Advisory Board Member Mark Dubowitz (with Jacob Nagel)

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: With prospects for a return to the 2015 nuclear deal rapidly dwindling, the most likely possibility to come out of ongoing talks in Vienna is a limited freeze of Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief.

Ukraine Tinderbox Could Affect Taiwan

Editorial Board

Taipei Times

January 21, 2022

Bottom Line: As tensions ratchet up over Ukraine, there is no doubt that Xi Jinping is using Washington’s response to a crisis in Europe to judge how the United States would respond to an invasion of Taiwan.

The Situation in Ukraine

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace

January 17, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin’s arguments about NATO ‘encirclement’ are nothing more than a straw man designed to create a pretext for conflict.

Biden’s Record on Dealing With Dictators, One Year In

TVC Advisory Board Member Matt Kroenig (with Jeffrey Cimmino)

The Dispatch

January 20, 2022

Bottom Line: While the Biden administration has been tough on China in its first year, despite strong rhetoric and escalating crises, he has been unwilling to adequately confront other authoritarian regimes, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

Putin Needs ‘General Frost’ on His Side to Win in Ukraine

Tim Marshall

Engelsberg Ideas

January 18, 2022

Bottom Line: From Napoleon to Hitler, Russia has been saved from outside invasion by the timely intervention of ‘General Frost’. Now, the tables are turned—if the winter continues to be mild and the ground does not freeze, heavy Russian mechanized units may have difficulty moving across the eastern Ukrainian plains & marshland.

To Deter Putin in Ukraine, Biden Must Stand Up to the Russian Strongman

TVC Advisory Board Member Nathan Sales

Fox News

January 23, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin senses weakness from Washington—and aggression is the predictable result—but there is still time for the Biden administration to take take tangible steps to deter a Russian invasion.

Washington In Slumber

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

January 23, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite major unfolding crises around the world, Washington today gives off the impression of somnolence, not vigor. On Ukraine, rather than taking action, the Biden administration seems to be waiting on Putin’s next move.

Securing Taiwan Requires Imminent Unprecedented Cyber Action

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen (with Bill Drexel)

Lawfare

January 13, 2022

Bottom Line: Because of Taiwan’s unique, indispensable role in the high-tech supply chain, Washington must work with Taipei to secure the country’s cyber infrastructure.

Reinserting Canada into America’s Indo-Pacific Perspective

TVC Advisory Board Member Zack Cooper

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

January 12, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite Canada’s long Pacific coast and growing trade with Asia, America’s neighbor to the north has yet to figure significantly into U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

Imagining the Unimaginable: The U.S., China, and War Over Taiwan

Joshua Keating

Grid News

January 13, 2022

Bottom Line: With or without U.S. intervention, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will certainly begin with the largest amphibious invasion in history—and likely end in deadly house-to-house fighting in one of the most densely-populated countries on Earth.

Washington’s Missing China Strategy

TVC Advisory Board Member Richard Fontaine

Foreign Affairs

January 14, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite the ubiquitous talk in Washington about the importance of “competition” with China, the foreign policy establishment has yet to articulate a clear objective for the United States.

Senate Democrats Use the Jim Crow Filibuster to Protect the Kremlin

Glenn Greenwald

Substack

January 14, 2022

Bottom Line: In the same week that President Biden compared anyone opposed to eliminating the filibuster to segregationists, Democrats used the procedure to block sanctions on the Nord Stream II pipeline supported by a bipartisan majority of Senators.

Boycott the Beijing Olympics

Brian T. Kennedy

RealClear Politics

January 18, 2022

Bottom Line: For the CCP, the Olympics are fundamentally a political tool to legitimize their totalitarian regime. The free peoples of the world shouldn’t make it easier for them.

Biden’s Ready-Made Excuse for a New Iran Deal

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

January 14, 2022

Bottom Line: “How could the Biden administration defend a terrible nuclear deal with Iran? Simple: blame Trump.”

American Orphans in the Wasteland

Andrew Doran

The American Conservative

January 3, 2022

In this moving and important essay, Doran details the stories of two young American service members and the challenges they faced returning home from war. The piece is neither about foreign policy nor politics, but deserves to be read.

U.S. Adversaries are Becoming South American Conquistadores

TVC Advisory Board Member Clifford D. May

The Washington Times

January 4, 2022

Bottom Line: In the eight years since Secretary of State John Kerry declared that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over,” China and Iran have broadened and deepened their influence operations in Latin America.

The Biden Team Knows Its Iran Policy Is Failing

Anthony Ruggiero

Foundation for Defense of Democracy

December 31, 2021

Bottom Line: Despite the his administration’s attempts to pin the blame for failing Iran nuclear talks on its predecessor, the regime’s most aggressive moves towards nuclear weapons occurred after Biden’s election.

Biden’s Moment of Truth in Iran

TVC Advisory Board Members Mark Dubowitz and Matt Kroenig

Wall Street Journal

January 6, 2022

Bottom Line: With negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program failing to deliver substantive progress, Biden will soon face a stark choice: allow Iran to become a nuclear power or use military force to stop it while he still can.

No, Putin Has Not Backed Himself into a Corner on Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Member David J. Kramer

The Dispatch

January 7, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin has convinced the Russian people that the West is the aggressor over Ukraine. Even if Russia does not invade, he has succeeded in forcing NATO and the U.S. to come to the negotiating table as his equals.

How Kazakhstan Could Shift Putin’s Calculus on Ukraine

John E. Herbst

The Atlantic Council

January 6, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s deployment of troops to bolster an unpopular regime in Kazakhstan underscores the importance of the region for Moscow, but if the situation there or in Ukraine worsens, Putin could find himself on the horns of a dilemma.

RIP, Soviet Union: One of the Greatest Revolutions of Modern Times

Lean Aron

1945

December 30, 2021

Bottom Line: Christmas Day marked the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union. As Putin tightens his grip on power, it is more important than ever to remember those who stood up for the liberty & human dignity of the Russian people in overthrowing the USSR.

The Beginning of the End of the Arab-Israeli Conflict?

Dan Schueftan

Institute for National Security Studies

November 2021

Bottom Line: Shifting geopolitical foundations have transformed what used to be thought of as the ‘Arab-Israeli’ struggle into a confrontation between an Arab-Israeli coalition on the one hand and Iran’s Islamic Revolution & Erdogan’s Turkey on the other.

Central Asia Will Cement Its Turn Against the West in 2022

Raffaello Pantucci

Nikkei Asia

December 30, 2021

Bottom Line: Following the U.S. retreat from Afghanistan, the countries of Central Asia will be hard-pressed to avoid falling into China’s, Russia’s, & Iran’s anti-Western bloc.

What Putin, Xi, and Khamenei Want

Aaron MacLean

Wall Street Journal

December 27, 2021

Bottom Line: Western leaders and their citizens habitually make the mistake of thinking that Putin, Xi, and Khamenei want what Westerners want for themselves, their citizens, and their nations. They don’t.

Lithuania Is the ‘Canary’ of World Order

Tod Lindberg & Peter Rough

Wall Street Journal

December 28, 2021

Bottom Line: Both Moscow and now Beijing are exerting pressure on tiny Lithuania in order to test the strength of U.S. and European resolve as they prepare for greater aggression against countries like Ukraine and Taiwan.

Putin Does Not Need to Invade Ukraine to Get His Way

Keir Giles

Chatham House

December 21, 2021

Bottom Line: A full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be costly for Russia. However, by threatening aggressive action, Moscow may be able to claim victory if the West backs down and grants concessions.

China Continues to Exploit U.S. Universities to Bolster Military Modernization, Report Finds

Caitlin McFall

Fox News

December 11, 2021

Bottom Line: Amid growing fears of Chinese influence in the U.S., a new report reveals the People’s Republic of China is using its existing relationships with U.S. universities to harvest information that it believe will facilitate “Chinese military dominance.”

WTO Can End Its Malaise if Small Member Groups Band Together

TVC Advisory Board Member Jamieson Greer

Bloomberg Law

December 20, 2021

Bottom Line: The World Trade Organization must face the reality of the political and economic moment and recognize that while it won’t revert to its former prominence in global trade regulation, it still has a role to play in facilitating plurilateral agreements.

Ending Our Corporate Dependence on China

Michael R. Auslin

Spectator

December 12, 2021

Bottom Line: Despite the growing anti-CCP consensus in Washington, the fact that U.S. corporations lobbied against the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act demonstrates how Beijing still exerts significant influence over American business.

Reagan National Defense Survey

Ronald Reagan Institute

December 2021

Bottom Line: The Reagan Institute’s annual survey of American attitudes on national security shows marked changes in public opinion, most ominously a steep decline in trust towards the military and growing ambivalence about U.S. leadership in the world.

One Year in, Biden’s Foreign Policy Record is a Catastrophe

Daniel Roman

AMAC

December 16, 2021

Bottom Line: When asked last week to name the biggest foreign policy achievement of the Biden Administration’s first year in office, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki dodged the question, underscoring a year of foreign policy missteps on almost every front.

Biden’s Summit of Babble

TVC Advisory Board Member Colin Dueck

National Review

December 17, 2021

Bottom Line: In addition to the inherent weaknesses of its garbled invite list and virtual format, Biden’s “Democracy Summit” reveals the absurdity of the notion that the U.S. will rally all of the world’s liberal democracies to oppose all of the world’s authoritarians.

The Empty Rhetoric at the Summit for Democracy

TVC Advisory Board Member Danielle Pletka

The Dispatch

December 14, 2021

Bottom Line: President Biden’s much-vaunted “Democracy Summit” is high on virtue signaling but low on substantive content and is indicative of a larger preference for talk over action within the Administration.

American Leadership is Required in International Organizations

Brett D. Schaefer

Stand for America

December 2021

Bottom Line: Powerful countries like China are reshaping the United Nations and other international organizations in ways that undermine American interests. U.S. leadership can advance our priorities while restoring the original purpose of these institutions.

America’s Response to China Is Crippled by Paralysis in Washington, Analyst Warns

Guy Taylor

Washington Examiner

December 8, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Michael Pillsbury warns that although Washington is increasingly focused on competition with China, its response so far has come in the form of “pinpricks” that are neither comprehensive nor coordinated.

Congress’ Spending Freeze Puts A Deep Chill On U.S. Military Modernization

Mackenzie Eaglen

1945

December 11, 2021

Bottom Line: As the possibility of a multi-month continuing resolution looms, the DOD needs to communicate the high costs of a funding freeze to Congress and take steps to protect essential programs and supply chains from disruption.

What’s at Stake in Ukraine

Fred Kagan

The Hill

December 7, 2021

Bottom Line: The United States and Europe cannot afford to allow Russia to seize further territory from Ukraine. Doing so would threaten the flanks of NATO, undermine American security guarantees, and legitimate Russia’s false accusations of “provocation”.

Values ARE Interests

Richard Fontaine and Daniel Twining

American Purpose

December 8, 2021

Bottom Line: Rather than being in conflict, America’s interests and values are two sides of the came coin. Biden can use his Democracy Summit to highlight this essential truth.

Why is Germany–With Its History–Enabling China’s Genocide?

Amanda Rothschild

Newsweek

December 10, 2021

Bottom Line: Germany’s repeated pledges to never forget the Holocaust ring hollow when Berlin’s foreign policy abets China’s genocide of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

China Is Racing Ahead to Lock in Asian Trade. Time to Worry.

Kelly Ann Shaw

Barron’s

December 3, 2021

Bottom Line: The China-led Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership trade agreement is set to come into force with the new year. The Biden administration needs to move aggressively to protect and expand U.S. trading interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

How China Wrested Control of the Congo’s Critical Minerals

David Uren

Australia Strategic Policy Institute

December 6, 2021

Bottom Line: Despite long-stated American concern over PRC control of critical rare earth mineral supply chains, recent reports detail how inaction on the part of both the Obama and Trump administrations allowed a Chinese state-owned company to take control of the world’s largest cobalt mine from an American firm.

In the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Standing Up to Putin is Our Only Credible Option

David J. Kramer & Toomas Hendrick Ilves

Politico

December 2, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member David Feith argues that the United States cannot afford–morally or strategically–to pressure Ukraine to make a deal with Putin in the face of invasion. The U.S. must respond resolutely to deter Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.

The Most Powerful Data Broker in the World Is Winning the War Against the U.S.

Matt Pottinger & David Feith

The New York Times

November 30, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC board member Matt Pottinger and Advisory Board member David Feith argue that data is the oil of the 21st century. Although the U.S. cannot afford to cede control of this indispensable resource to a rival, China has made dangerous moves to dominate the economic lifeblood of the new economy.

Our Country is Skeptical About Whether ‘America is Back,’ More Uncertain About U.S. Global Leadership

Roger Zakheim & Rachel Hoff

Fox News

December 1, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board members Roger Zakheim and Rachel Hoff report that although for the first time, a majority of Americans view China as the preeminent threat to the United States, citizens are less confident about the role of the U.S. in the world.

U.S. Has Unlearned the Lessons of Pearl Harbor

Brandon Weichert

The Asia Times

December 6, 2021

Bottom Line: As we mark the 80th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, Brandon Weichert reflects that U.S. military, civilian, and intelligence leaders are committing many of the same blunders that led to America being blindsided by the Japanese Empire in 1941.

Why Won’t Washington Speak Out About the Latest Crisis in Iran?

Victoria Coates

National Review

November 27, 2021

Bottom Line: Victoria Coates asks why the Biden administration–which has claimed to put human rights and climate issues at the center of its foreign policy–has failed to speak out over Tehran’s crackdown on protests against egregious environmental mismanagement which has left much of the country in a dangerous state of drought.

Israeli Military Readying for ‘Plan B’ if Nuclear Talks Fail

Anna Aaronheim

The Jerusalem Post

November 28, 2021

Bottom Line: The Israeli Defense Force is enhancing training with U.S. and Arab military forces with whom it might cooperate to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if talks in Vienna fail.

How America Lost Its Leverage on Iran

Richard Goldberg

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

November 23, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Goldberg argues that Congress has a unique opportunity to show bipartisan unity in the name of national security by passing legislation to reinforce sanctions until Iran gives up its nuclear program and sponsorship of terrorist organizations.

Iran’s Nuclear Choices and Ours

Richard Haass

Project Syndicate

November 17, 2021

Bottom Line: While many welcome the resumption of nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna this month, it is time to face the fact that they are unlikely to succeed and formal diplomacy may have to be supplanted by more coercive means to prevent a nuclear Iran.

‘Less for More’ Is the Worst Deal of All

Jacob Nagel & Mark Dubowitz

Newsweek

November 8, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mark Dubowitz argues that the Biden administration is poised offer greater concessions to Iran in exchange for fewer constraints on the country’s nuclear program than existed in the original 2015 nuclear deal, undermining non-proliferation and regional & U.S. security.

A Sign That Iran Is Still Pursuing Nukes

Behnam Ben Taleblu

The Dispatch

November 17, 2021

Bottom Line: The new head of Iran’s nuclear research institute has a long resume of service with organizations under U.S. sanctions for military nuclear activity, raising doubts about the regime’s sincerity at nuclear non-proliferation negotiations underway in Vienna.

Iran’s Nuclear Negotiators Make the U.S. Sit at the Kiddie Table

Reuel Marc Gerecht & Ray Takeyh

The Wall Street Journal

November 28, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board members Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh highlight how the Iranian delegation to the Vienna talks has relished humiliating their U.S. counterparts by refusing to negotiate in the same room as them.

How the Next Republican President Can Restore U.S. Leadership on Climate Change

Nate Sibley

POLITICO Magazine

November 18, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Nate Sibley argues that as climate emerges as an important issue for young conservatives, the GOP can chart a middle course between the climate alarmism of the left and climate denialism of the old right by embracing market-oriented solutions and a tough line against the world’s worst polluters.

Vaccine Mandate is Last Straw for U.S. Shipyards Already Facing Labor Shortages

Mackenzie Eaglen

Defense News

November 19, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mackenzie Eaglen illuminates how the Biden administration’s employer vaccine mandate damages the shipbuilding industrial base. Even limited refusal to comply within the highly-specialized shipyard workforce threatens to undermine the industry’s ability to meet the Navy’s construction and repair needs.

The Ramifications of Russia’s Reckless Anti-Satellite Test

Malcom Davis

Real Clear Defense

November 22, 2021

Bottom Line: Russia’s recent live-fire test of an anti-satellite weapon created a cloud of orbiting debris which threatens the International Space Station, the Chinese Tiangong space station, and every country’s ability to safely navigate in orbit.

Russia Preparing to Attack Ukraine by Late January

Howard Altman

Military Times

November 20, 2021

Bottom Line: According to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, the Russian troop buildup on the border would enable Moscow to mount an attack on his country early next year.

What are the Chinese After? Everything.

Danielle Pletka

The Dispatch

November 19, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Danielle Pletka argues that Beijing has been making a calculated longterm play to dominate the commanding heights of the next generation economy — from AI to advanced surveillance systems to aerospace technology. Now that Western leaders are waking up to this fact, they must respond.

Where Politicians are Failing to Act on Peng Shuai, Angry Athletes are Taking a Stand

Gaby Hinsliff

The Guardian

November 22, 2021

While International Olympic Committee officials take a ‘softly softly’ approach towards China after the disappearance of tennis star Peng Shuai in Beijing, athletes around the world are demanding accountability from the CCP.

Human Rights Must Not be Forgotten Amid China’s Empty Climate Change Promises

Louisa Greve.

The Hill.

November 13, 2021.

Bottom Line: While progressive groups downplay Chinese human rights abuses in the hopes of striking a deal on climate change, the two issues are intimately linked. The United States cannot advance green policies by turning a blind eye to forced labor and genocide.

5 key updates in the Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report

Zack Cooper.

AEI Blog.

November 8, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Zack Cooper highlights advances in Chinese nuclear, missile, and power projection capabilities as the biggest changes in DOD’s annual index of Chinese military strength.

Deterring Chinese Strategic Attack

Matt Kroenig.

Atlantic Council Reports.

November 2, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Matt Kroenig argues that with the People’s Republic of China poised to more than double the size of its nuclear arsenal within the decade, the U.S. government must maintain superiority in strategic nuclear weapons.

We Must Stand with Taiwan

Kevin Andrews.

Spectator Australia.

November 13, 2021.

Bottom Line: Former Australian Defense Minister Kevin Andrews calls on the free peoples of the world to defend Taiwanese democracy against totalitarian PRC aggression.

All Over the Map

Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic.

Foundation for Defense of Democracies Monographs.

November 15, 2021.

Bottom Line: The Chinese Communist Party is engaged in a sustained “united front” campaign to put pressure on Washington by influencing state and local leaders in the U.S. to back CCP positions.

Beijing Urges U.S. Businesses to Lobby Against China-Related Bills in Congress

The Guardian.

November 12, 2021.

Bottom Line: Chinese diplomats threaten to undercut U.S. businesses’ operations in China if they do not lobby against pending bills in Congress designed to boost U.S. economic and technological competitiveness.

It’s the Ideology, Stupid.

Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu.

Substack. August 27, 2021.

Bottom Line: The actions and motivations of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese government can only be understood through the Marxist-Leninist-Maoist ideology that under girds the party-state. The West may still debate whether we are in a battle of ideas with China; China has already answered this question.

What Will Drive China to War?

Michael Beckley and Hal Brands.

The Atlantic.

November 1, 2021.

Bottom Line: Since 1949, the PRC has demonstrated a clear pattern–shooting first to gain the element of surprise rather than waiting to be attacked, even when it is facing a more powerful foe. Beckley and Brands explain how this history should inform strategy.

What the New China Focus Gets Wrong

Richard Fontaine.

Foreign Affairs.

November 2, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Fontaine argues that while the recent shift towards a focus on China is a useful corrective to years of neglect, Washington is running the risk of subsuming all U.S. foreign policy goals under the China framework.

Denying China’s Quest for Regional–and Global–Hegemony

Peter Berkowitz.

RealClearPolitics.

November 14, 2021.

Bottom Line: In a review of Colby’s Strategy of Denial, TVC Advisory Board member and former State Department Director of Policy Planning Peter Berkowitz explains how the United States can build coalitions to confront all aspects of the China Challenge.

President Biden, Don’t Help Our Adversaries Break NATO

Eric Edelman & Franklin Miller.

The Washington Post.

November 4, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board members Eric Edelman and Franklin Miller argue that adopting a “no first use” nuclear policy would abrogate our responsibility to allies who depend on American strategic deterrence for their security.

What Will End Russia’s Forever War in Ukraine?

Mark Temnycky.

Center for European Policy Analysis.

November 4, 2021.

Bottom Line: Continued conflict and instability in Ukraine serves Moscow’s strategic goals; however, Ukraine’s defeat would also be a failure for U.S. interests.

The U.S. Can Secure Critical Supply Chains to Advance Decarbonization Goals, But It Will Take a Fresh, Nuanced Approach

J. Peter Pham.

Real Clear Energy.

November 4, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member J. Peter Pham argues that “reshoring” is not the right way to secure rare earth supply chains and that the U.S. should instead leverage its relationships with allies and partners to achieve this shared goal.

China Consolidates Rare Earth Supply Chain

Annie Fixler & Louis Gilbertson.

FDD Policy Brief.

November 5, 2021.

Bottom Line: Recent moves to consolidate state-owned mining and refinery firms stand to increase China’s leverage over the global rare earth mineral supply chain.

“Less for More” Is the Worst Deal of All

Jacob Nagel & Mark Dubowitz.

Newsweek.

November 8, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mark Dubowitz and Jacob Nagel argue that the Biden administration is poised to trade greater sanctions relief for fewer restrictions on Iranian nuclear proliferation than in the original 2015 nuclear deal.

Anomalous Health Incidents: The Havana Syndrome–Update

Dustin Carmack and Brett Schaefer.

Heritage Foundation Report.

November 8, 2021.

Bottom Line: It remains an open question whether U.S. diplomats in Havana were sickened by a deliberate energy weapon or as a byproduct of signals-intelligence gathering.

Bennett, Lapid in United Front: “No place for U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem”

Times of Israel.

November 6, 2021.

Bottom Line: Israel’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister declare that a dedicated U.S. consulate to the Palestinians should be in Ramallah, not Jerusalem.

Internet Shutdowns Are a Political Weapon. It’s Time to Disarm.

Scott Carpenter.

Tech Crunch.

October 30, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Scott Carpenter warns that authoritarian regimes are increasing their use of internet shutdowns to control the flow of information and thereby their populations. Democratic governments should oppose this.

China Has Started Making the Same Mistakes as the Soviets

Hal Brands.

Bloomberg Opinion.

October 27, 2021.

Bottom Line: Drawing on lessons from history, Hal Brands describes how China is making the same mistakes as the Soviet Union in today’s “new Cold War.”

What’s at Stake in the Indo-Pacific

Aaron Friedberg.

Proceedings.

October 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Aaron Friedberg argues that what happens at sea will determine what happens on land in a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific.

What We Risk If We Fail to Fully Modernize the US Nuclear Deterrent

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs.

The Heritage Foundation Essays.

October 20, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Rebeccah Heinrichs lays out what the United States risks in delaying funding for various parts of the nuclear modernization project.

Allies Lobby Biden to Prevent Shift to “no first use” of Nuclear Arms

Demetri Sevastopulo and Henry Foy.

Financial Times.

October 29, 2021.

Bottom Line: As the administration completes its nuclear posture review, several allies are lobbying President Biden against the proposed adoption of a “no first use” nuclear policy, calling it “a huge gift to China and Russia.” Read this article from TVC Advisory Board member Rebeccah Heinrichs on why such a policy would be a mistake: Reject ‘No First Use’ Nuclear Policy – by Rebeccah L. Heinrichs.

10 Years After ‘The Pivot’: Still America’s Pacific century?

Zack Cooper.

AEI Report.

October 19, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Zack Cooper argues that over the past decade, U.S. rhetoric on the importance of Asia has not matched action, outlining three course corrections the Biden team and Congress must prioritize to improve U.S. strategy.

Biden Must Build on Trump’s Partnership with India

Paul Kapur.

The National Interest.

October 24, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Paul Kapur explains the strategic importance of the U.S. partnership with India, arguing that the Biden team should ground U.S. policy in five key principles to expand on the Trump administration’s India policy.

The Taliban Can’t Take on the Islamic State Alone

Amira Jadoon and Andrew Mines.

War on the Rocks.

October 14, 2021.

Bottom Line: Jadoon and Mines examine the rivalry between the Islamic State and the Taliban, arguing that the Taliban faces several challenges in confronting the Islamic State independently. They make several consequent recommendations for U.S. policy.

Border security is national security

Clifford May.

Washington Times.

October 20, 2021.

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Clifford May argues that the Biden border crisis will have lasting implications for U.S. national security, suggesting that Biden should choose moderation, bipartisanship, and common sense when dealing with the border.

Americans Still Believe in Powell’s Principles

Karl Rove.

Wall Street Journal.

October 20, 2021.

Bottom Line: Citing Vandenberg’s new polling research, Karl Rove argues that the American still believe in the power of American leadership to defend American interests.

Playing for Keeps: China Has Made the Free Market a Fool’s Market

Keith Krach and David Stilwell

National Interest

October 16, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board members Keith Krach and David Stilwell join forces to highlight the growing threat from China’s weaponized economic competition. In this important piece, they explain why free trade falls apart when states don’t play by the rules.

China’s Nuclear Weapons Buildup, Geopolitical Ambition, and Strategic Threat

Christopher Ford

New Paradigms Forum

October 17, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Christopher Ford offers a survey of Chinese nuclear, cyberspace, counterspace, and conventional threats.

How To Get Congress To Dump Old U.S. Military Equipment For Good

MacKenzie Eaglen

1945

October 17, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mackenzie Eaglen provides an insightful analysis on how Congress can ensure a ready, healthy, and modern U.S. military.

The Fallacy of Joe Biden’s ‘Bank of Multilateral Goodwill’

Colin Dueck

The National Interest

October 14, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Colin Dueck offers a critical take on President Biden’s approach to multilateral institutions, arguing that the invisible Bank of Multilateral Goodwill does not exist.

France And America: A Vital Alliance To Ensure An Open And Free Indo-Pacific

Robert C. O’Brien and Alexander Gray

1945

October 19, 2021

Bottom Line: Former National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien and Alexander Gray explain why the U.S.-France alliance is essential to ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

The Moment of Truth over Taiwan is Getting Closer

Gideon Rachman

Financial Times

October 11, 2021

Bottom Line: Rachman argues that the question of whether the United States will defend Taiwan is becoming increasingly urgent, providing a detailed analysis of the likely calculations on the issue by both the United States and China.

Washington Should Deter an Attack on Taiwan

Matthew Kroenig and Jeffrey Cimmino

The Dispatch

October 8, 2021

Bottom Line: As the danger of war grows, TVC Advisory Board member Matthew Kroenig and Jeffrey Cimmino argue that the U.S. must establish more effective deterrence.

How Little Lithuania Dragged the EU into its Showdown with China

Stuart Lau

Politico EU

October 6, 2021

Bottom Line: Stuart Lau explains how the small country of Lithuania is boldly standing up to China and urging other European Union members to follow its example.

Major Power Rivalry in South Asia

Tanvi Madan

Council on Foreign Relations

October 2021

Bottom Line: Tanvi Madan authors a discussion paper providing extensive context on the U.S.-China and China-India rivalries and how the United States can manage them.

It’s the Ideology, Stupid

Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu

Magipie

August 27, 2021

Bottom Line: Aleksandra Tirziu pens a detailed essay that seeks to understand and explain why ideology matters in great power competition with China.

The Age of America First: Washington’s Flawed New Foreign Policy Consensus

Richard Haass

Foreign Affairs

Nov/Dec 2021

Bottom Line: Haass argues that a new foreign policy consensus is emerging — the “Age of America First.” Noting that this new consensus is not isolationist, Haass points to areas of convergence and divergence in the past administrations, highlighting key challenges and areas that require increased attention to advance American security and prosperity.

What is America’s role in the world?

Various Contributors

Washington Examiner

September 30, 2021

Bottom Line: The Washington Examiner argues that the foreign policy consensus in D.C. has broken apart, and it is time to reassess America’s role in the world. The newspaper asked 11 foreign policy experts — including TVC Advisory Board member Rebeccah Heinrichs — for their views in this compilation of short essays.

Faster, Higher, Stronger: China’s 2022 Coronation Plan and the Need to Boycott the Beijing Games

Nathan Picarsic and Emily de La Bruyère

FDD

September 30, 2021

Bottom Line: Picarsic and de La Bruyère argue for a boycott of the Beijing Games in this detailed report through FDD.

A profound move for both Canberra and Washington

Richard Fontaine

Australian Financial Review

September 16, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Fontaine outlines why the new AUKUS agreement represents a major step on both the defense and diplomatic fronts.

Does Joe Biden Really Want To Reform The UN Human Rights Council?

Brett D. Schaefer and Danielle Pletka

1945

October 3, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Danielle Pletka and Brett Schaefer examine the Biden administration’s approach to the UN Human Rights Council, arguing that the administration has not done enough to pursue necessary reforms.

Germany after Merkel may prove a grumpier and more difficult ally than the Biden administration expects

Josh Groeneveld

Business Insider

October 1, 2021

Bottom Line: Groeneveld, a writer for Business Insider’s German sister site, provides a detailed analysis of the end of the Merkel era in Germany and what it means for U.S.-German relations under the Biden administration and broader European politics.

Fostering the Emerging Consensus About the China Challenge

Peter Berkowitz

Real Clear Politics

September 26, 2021

Bottom Line: Citing Rush Doshi’s new book on China, TVC Advisory Board member Peter Berkowitz argues that partisan posturing must not stand in the way of recognizing an emerging bipartisan consensus on threats from the China Challenge.

What to Expect When You’re Expecting a National Defense Strategy

Mackenzie Eaglen, Thomas Spoehr, Bradley Bowman, and Bryan Clark

War on the Rocks

September 27, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mackenzie Eaglen and company propose ideas for how the Biden team’s National Defense Strategy can secure American interests.

US builds bulwark against China with UK-Australia security pact

Demetri Sevastopulo and Laura Hughes

Financial Times

September 15, 2021

Bottom Line: Financial Times provides a detailed overview of the new trilateral security partnership between the U.S., U.K., and Australia on nuclear-powered submarines.

China goes on an intellectual property offensive

Maki Sagami

Nikkei Asia

September 22, 2021

Bottom Line: Sagami details China’s new intellectual property offensive, arguing that foreign companies need to be ready for an onslaught of lawsuits.

Biden’s Del Rio Bridge Crisis: Far More Than Just Optics Problem

Chad Wolf, Mark Morgan, and Lora Ries

Daily Signal

September 25, 2021

Bottom Line: In this piece on the migration crisis, three experts team up to explain the origins of the Del Rio Bridge crisis and the lasting effects on U.S. national security.

Global Supply-Chain Woes May Imperil More Than Christmas Shopping

Brent Sadler

Real Clear Defense

September 23, 2021

Bottom Line: Sadler outlines how a brewing shipping crisis will not only lead to layoffs, higher prices, and fewer options at the grocery store, but also soon imperil U.S. security.

Beijing’s American Hustle: How Chinese Grand Strategy Exploits U.S. Power

Matt Pottinger

Foreign Affairs

September/October 2021

Bottom Line: In this thought-provoking essay, TVC Boardman and former Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger details how American society and the private sector can effectively guard against CCP threats in partnership with allies.

Those Left Behind in Afghanistan

Amanda J. Rothschild

Newsweek

September 21, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Senior Policy Director Amanda Rothschild responds to previews of President Biden’s UNGA address, arguing that we should not allow the Biden team to shift attention away from Afghanistan while vulnerable populations are left behind.

How America Should Deal With the Taliban: Avoiding the Diplomatic Errors That Doomed the U.S. Withdrawal

Lisa Curtis

Foreign Affairs

September 20, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Lisa Curtis outlines a strategy for dealing with the Taliban, as the United States wrestles with the consequences of the recent crisis.

Why China Loves America’s Defense Budget Inaction

Mackenzie Eaglen

1945

September 20, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mackenzie Eaglen warns that congressional delays on the defense budget hinder America’s ability to compete with China.

Inhumane How Samuel Moyn Evades Hard Choices

Gabriel Schoenfeld

American Purpose

September 13, 2021

Bottom Line: Gabriel Schoenfeld reviews Samuel Moyn’s Humane: How the United States Abandoned Peace and Reinvented War, lauding his engaging intellectual history, but offering a critical take in other key areas, including its political-moral judgment.

No, Trump Didn’t Force Biden’s Withdrawal

Paul Kapur

Wall Street Journal

August 31, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Paul Kapur explains where the Biden team has misrepresented the terms of the Doha agreement and why the administration was not forced to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by August 31.

September 11 from 1981 to 2031

Richard Goldberg

Mosaic

September 13, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Goldberg pens a personal and insightful essay on lessons learned from America’s engagement in Afghanistan.

Yes, We’re Safer From Terrorism Because of Intelligence Reforms After 9/11. However…

David R. Shedd

The Daily Signal

September 8, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member David Shedd evaluates whether the United States is in fact safer from terrorism than it was 20 years ago. The answer is yes, but with important nuances outlined by Shedd in this timely and informative essay.

The Intellectual Conformity of International-Relations Faculty

Gabriel Scheinmann

National Review

September 5, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Gabriel Scheinmann examines the deleterious effects of intellectual conformity in the ivory tower, which extend far beyond near-unanimous attitudes related to U.S. policy toward Afghanistan.

Trust and Diversify: A Geoeconomic Strategy for the Australia-US Alliance

Darren Lim, Zack Cooper, and Ashley Feng

United States Studies Centre

September 2, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Zack Cooper coauthors a new report outlining specific steps for the United States and Australia to increase “geoeconomic” cooperation, combining economic and security issues, such as supply chain resilience.

What If We Are Wrong?

Francis Gavin

Texas National Security Review

Summer 2021

Bottom Line: In this short piece, Gavin examines the uses and misuses of history in foreign policy, offering recommendations on how we can employ history more wisely.

Biden Needs an Effective—and Coercive— Iran Strategy

Mark Dubowitz

Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

September 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mark Dubowitz outlines a multipronged strategy for the U.S. to address threats from the Iranian regime, drawing several lessons from President Reagan’s “victory” strategy against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Lessons of Freedom From 20 Years of War Against Jihadism

Peter Berkowitz

Real Clear Politics

September 5, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Peter Berkowitz pens a detailed essay on the lessons learned from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past 20 years.

For a Humiliated Superpower, Vietnam Shows a Path Back

Hal Brands

Bloomberg

August 18, 2021

Bottom Line: Hal Brands looks to history to understand how a global superpower can rebound from a humiliating defeat, like the one just experienced in Afghanistan, drawing several lessons from the U.S. pivot from defeat in Vietnam to victory in the Cold War.

Why Nation-Building Is Inevitable

Henry Nau

Providence

August 31, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Henry Nau examines the lessons of the Afghanistan case for nation-building, drawing on examples from the Cold War.

The Evolving Taliban-ISK Rivalry

Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, and Abdul Sayed

The Interpreter – Lowy Institute

September 6, 2021

Bottom Line: Jadoon, Mines, and Sayed examine the history of the Taliban-ISK rivalry since ISK’s emergence in 2015, outlining their predictions for future interactions between the groups and highlighting several areas of concern moving forward.

What I Wish the U.S. Had Done About Putin Years Ago – And What Biden Should Do Now

David Kramer

Politico

September 4, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member David Kramer reflects on his government service and the steps he wishes the U.S. had taken years ago to confront the Putin regime.

A Morgenthau Moment for Afghanistan

Amanda J. Rothschild

The Dispatch

August 25, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Senior Policy Director Amanda Rothschild draws on the history of the War Refugee Board to outline a path for the Biden team to avert further disaster.

Beefed-Up Sanctions Could Limit the Damage in Afghanistan

Matthew Zweig and Richard Goldberg

Wall Street Journal

August 29, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Goldberg joins Matthew Zweig in urging the Biden administration to impose hard-hitting sanctions on the Taliban.

A Way Out of Biden’s Afghan Trap

Paula J. Dobriansky and Paul Saunders

Wall Street Journal

August 25, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Paula Dobriansky and Paul Saunders argue for the imposition of a U.N.-authorized safe zone to facilitate evacuations.

Biden’s 5 Mistruths on Afghanistan

Thomas Spoehr

Daily Signal

August 19, 2021

Bottom Line: Spoehr factchecks 5 claims by the Biden administration, including those related to the “over-the-horizon” capability and the inevitability of the current crisis.

It wasn’t hubris that drove America into Afghanistan. It was fear.

Robert Kagan

Washington Post

August 26, 2021

Bottom Line: Robert Kagan pens a reflective essay on the feelings and perceptions that drove the United States to war in Afghanistan following 9/11.

Don’t Let Them Blame the Americans Trapped in Afghanistan for Getting Left Behind

Noah Rothman

Commentary

August 26, 2021

Bottom Line: Rothman warns that we should not let the Biden administration blame Americans for getting left behind in Afghanistan.

A Journey Through Kabul on the Day of the Fall

Mujib Mashal

New York Times

August 28, 2021

Bottom Line: NYT South Asia Correspondent, Mujib Mashal, who grew up in Kabul, provides a firsthand perspective on what the fall means to a generation of Afghans.

Was the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan inevitable?

Shaun Tandon

Times of Israel

August 17, 2021

Bottom Line: Tandon investigates the Biden administration’s claim that the current chaos and disorder in Afghanistan was unavoidable. This piece includes commentary by TVC Advisory Board members H.R. McMaster and Richard Fontaine.

The Biden Administration’s Empathy Problem

Amanda J. Rothschild

Newsweek

August 24, 2021

Bottom Line: Amanda Rothschild, TVC Senior Policy Director and former White House Senior National Security Speechwriter, argues that the Biden team’s multifaceted empathy problem is negatively affecting the president’s remarks and U.S. national security.

After Afghan Withdrawal Debacle, Biden’s Counterterrorism Plan Draws Fire

Bill Powell

Newsweek

August 19, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Amb. Nathan Sales is quoted in this piece by Bill Powell evaluating Biden’s plan for an “over the horizon” counterterrorism policy.

Take Time to Judge Taliban’s Actions, Not Words

Lisa Curtis

Just Security

August 19, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Lisa Curtis urges the Biden administration to pay attention to the Taliban’s actions, not words, in any future diplomatic engagement.

Chaos of Kabul exposes faultlines in UK-US special relationship

Sebastian Payne, Helen Warrell, and Katrina Manson

Financial Times

August 19, 2021

Bottom Line: Payne, Warrell, and Manson at the Financial Times examine the significant faultlines in the special relationship in light of the crisis in Afghanistan.

Tom Tugendhat Speech on the Floor of the House of Commons

Tom Tugendhat MP

House of Commons

August 18, 2021

Bottom Line: MP Tom Tugendhat delivers a moving and compelling address on the disastrous situation in Afghanistan in the House of Commons. We recommend watching the speech in full here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?…

Why We Must Not Abandon the People of Afghanistan – For Their Sakes and Ours

Tony Blair

Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

August 21, 2021

Bottom Line: Tony Blair offers a sobering statement on Afghanistan, outlining specific steps for the U.K. and partners to advance stability and minimize security threats.

Responsible Statecraft Gets Its Moment

Washington Free Beacon Editorial

August 17, 2021

Bottom Line: The Free Beacon editors argue that the toxic mix of isolationism and anti-Americanism at the Quincy Institute bears responsibility for the debacle in Afghanistan.

Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To.

Frederick W. Kagan

The New York Times

August 12, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Frederick Kagan argues that the disastrous Taliban takeover in Afghanistan was not inevitable, detailing where the Biden administration went wrong in executing the withdrawal of American forces.

In Afghanistan, the Tragic Toll of Washington Delusion

H.R. McMaster and Bradley Bowman

The Wall Street Journal

August 15, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member H.R. McMaster and Bradley Bowman explain how the current situation in Afghanistan will exacerbate terrorist threats to the homeland, arguing that policymakers must stop wishful thinking on Afghanistan.

Worse Than Saigon

Ben Sasse

National Review

August 16, 2021

Bottom Line: Senator Ben Sasse outlines the failures of U.S. policy toward Afghanistan, arguing that the retreat is the worst foreign-policy disaster in a generation.

Why We Failed: The American Exit From Afghanistan

Bari Weiss

Common Sense

August 16, 2021

Bottom Line: Bari Weiss asks H.R. McMaster, Nikki Haley, Justin Amash, Elliot Ackerman, Thomas Joscelyn, Eli Lake and Jacob Siegel for their thoughts on Afghanistan.

5 Things to Know about the Taliban’s Advance in Afghanistan

Emily Tavenner

American University

August 13, 2021

Bottom Line: Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne shares the five most important things to know about the Taliban’s advance, including what needs to be done now.

John Allen: Biden Must Reverse His Decision to Quit Afghanistan

John R. Allen

Defense One

August 13, 2021

Bottom Line: John Allen outlines the specific steps the Biden administration can take now to prevent further disaster, violence, and suffering in Afghanistan.

The Strategic Consequences of America’s Loss in Afghanistan

Matthew Kroenig and Jeffrey Cimmino

The Dispatch

August 17, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Matthew Kroenig joins Jeffrey Cimmino to analyze the broader strategic consequences of America’s loss in Afghanistan.

China, Pakistan and Russia set to increase Afghanistan influence

Andrew Roth in Moscow, Hannah Ellis-Petersen in New Delhi, and Vincent Ni, China affairs correspondent

The Guardian

Aug 16, 2021

Bottom Line: Three Guardian correspondents provide an analysis of the likely response of China, Pakistan, and Russia to the recent events in Afghanistan, arguing that all three nations are poised to increase their engagement and influence with Taliban authorities.

India Must Remain Engaged in Afghanistan

Rani D. Mullen

Inkstick

August 13, 2021

Bottom Line: Mullen explains how instability in Afghanistan is likely to affect India’s strategic interests, outlining how India can mitigate threats in this new environment.

From Maximum Pressure to Maximum Deference

Richard Goldberg

The Dispatch

August 6, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Goldberg argues that the Biden administration’s policy of maximum deference to Iran has emboldened the regime.

Biden Needs a Plan B for the Iran Talks

Elliott Abrams

National Review

August 4, 2021

Bottom Line: Abrams argues that the Biden team needs to articulate a Plan B for when a return to the JCPOA inevitably fails. Abrams proposes and evaluates several possibilities.

Will Biden’s Outreach to Iran Increase or Erode Middle East Stability?

Josef Joffe

Strategika

August 2, 2021

Bottom Line: Joffe argues that Biden’s tilt away from the historic alignment of Israel and Arab states toward Iran will have negative consequences for U.S. interests in the region.

Biden Team Discovers Merit of Trump’s Iran Approach

Anthony Ruggiero

Real Clear World

August 6, 2021

Bottom Line: Ruggiero argues that the Biden team may be seeing merit in the Trump admin’s Iran approach, outlining several steps for the Biden admin to get back on track.

Blinken’s Diversity & Inclusion Plan Erodes Equality & Excellence

Peter Berkowitz

Real Clear Politics

August 8, 2021

Bottom Line: Former State Department Director of Policy Planning Peter Berkowitz evaluates the effects of new diversity and inclusion policies at the Department of State.

Prospects for recovery: the global outlook in 2021 and beyond

Jim O’Neill

The Article

July 29, 2021

Bottom Line: O’Neill, Chair of Chatham House and former Conservative government minister, details the prospects for international economic recovery from Covid.

How to Avert Disaster in Afghanistan

H.R. McMaster and Bradley Bowman

Wall Street Journal

July 26, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member H.R. McMaster and Bradley Bowman outline specific steps to mitigate the consequences of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

A U.S. Defense Budget That Makes China Smile

Mackenzie Eaglen

1945

July 28, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Mackenzie Eaglen sounds the alarm on a number of deficiencies in President Biden’s proposed 2022 defense budget.

Cuba Needs a Free Internet

Richard Fontaine and Kara Frederick

Foreign Policy

July 29, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Fontaine and Kara Frederick make the case for the United States to do more to support internet access in Cuba.

Tunisian democracy in turmoil after president sacks government

Tarek Amara and Angus Mcdowall

Reuters

July 26, 2021

Bottom Line: Tarek Amara and Angus Mcdowall provide a detailed account and analysis of the recent democracy crisis in Tunisia.

Biden should reconsider planned reversal of bipartisan US policy on Jerusalem

Elliott Abrams and Amanda J. Rothschild

The Hill

July 27, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Board Chairman Elliott Abrams and Senior Policy Director Amanda Rothschild urge the Biden administration to reconsider plans to open a new Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem, arguing that doing so undermines Israeli sovereignty, sends dangerous and ambiguous signals, and amounts to discriminatory treatment of Israel.

China Evergrande’s troubles are wrecking Xi’s economic story

William Pesek

Nikkei Asia

July 26, 2021

Bottom Line: Tokyo-based journalist William Pesek explains the consequences of Evergrande’s economic troubles for the Chinese Communist Party and President Xi.

Another proxy war in Afghanistan?

Aarti Betigeri

The Interpreter Lowy Institute

July 26, 2021

Bottom Line: Betigeri warns of the possibility of a new proxy war emerging between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, highlighting the consequences for regional stability.

Biden Caves, Gives Putin Another Pipeline to Europe

David J. Kramer and Benjamin Parker

The Bulwark

July 22, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board Member David Kramer joins Benjamin Parker in highlighting the profoundly negative consequences of the Biden administration’s decision to drop its opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany.

The Abraham Accords: Morocco-Israel On Cybersecurity

Bonnie Glick

Newslooks

July 18, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Bonnie Glick outlines the significance of a recent Morocco-Israel cyber agreement in the context of the Abraham Accords.

1972 Munich Olympics Terrorist Attack Explained as Massacred Israeli Athletes Honored

Jenni Fink

Newsweek

July 23, 2021

Bottom Line: This year in Tokyo, the Olympics for the first time honored Israeli athletes and coaches murdered during the 1972 Munich games. Fink explains the gravity of this long overdue memorial nearly a half century after that horrific terrorist attack.

Russia’s National Security Strategy: Same book, new cover

Ian Hill

The Interpreter (Lowy Institute)

July 19, 2021

Bottom Line: Hill offers a detailed analysis of Russia’s recently released National Security Strategy, highlighting elements of continuity and change.

U.S.-German-Polish Cooperation Key to Securing Europe’s Eastern Flank

Andrew A. Mitchta and James Carafano

Real Clear Defense

July 14, 2021

Bottom Line: Mitchta and Carafano make the case for the Biden administration to advance trilateral cooperation between the United States, Germany, and Poland.

The Observer view on South Africa’s problems

Observer Editorial

The Guardian

July 18, 2021

Bottom Line: On the anniversary of the birthday of Nelson Mandela, the Observer examines recent tensions in South Africa, offering hopeful projections for the future.

Cuba’s Hunger for Freedom

Nestor T. Carbonell

National Review

July 16, 2021

Bottom Line: A lifelong opponent of the communist regime in Cuba, Carbonell argues that recent protests in Cuba are driven by a desire for freedom, outlining specific steps the United States can take to support a peaceful democratic transition in Cuba.

Iran Tried to Kidnap a New York Journalist. That’s the Tip of the Iceberg

Tabby Refael

Newsweek

July 15, 2021

Bottom Line: Tabby Refael provides a detailed account of Iran’s recent attempt to kidnap U.S. citizen and regime opponent, Masih Alinejad. Refael also recounts the stories of other regime opponents targeted abroad over the past several decades.

China’s Nuclear Silos and the Arms-Control Fantasy

Matthew Kroenig

The Wall Street Journal

July 7, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Matthew Kroenig warns of China’s growing nuclear arsenal, and urges policymakers to modernize America’s nuclear weapons.

Rhetoric Divorced from Reality: Deciphering Biden’s Foreign Policy Philosophy

Amanda J. Rothschild

The National Interest

July 7, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Senior Policy Director Amanda Rothschild provides an analysis of Biden’s foreign policy doctrine, arguing that a conspicuous gap between rhetoric and action may risk undermining both the strategy and messaging of the Biden team.

Why does Xi Jinping threaten Taiwan? The Chinese know they have a choice

Daniel Johnson

The Article

July 1, 2021

Bottom Line: Daniel Johnson analyzes Beijing’s belligerence toward Taiwan, calling on Western democracies to demonstrate a united commitment to Taiwanese security.

Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way

Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr

The Lowy Institute

May 20, 2021

Bottom Line: Porter and Mazarr offer a middle path for U.S. policy on Taiwan between war and abandonment: the United States should act as an armourer, but not guarantor.

Israeli, Mexican rescuers bring distinct experience to Miami building collapse

Daniel Trotta

Reuters

June 27, 2021

Bottom Line: Trotta provides a detailed account of how international rescue teams from Israel and Mexico are applying their expertise in response to the Surfside tragedy.

What Erdogan’s Tilt to the West Means for Russia–Turkey Relations

Dimitar Bechev

RUSI

July 1, 2021

Bottom Line: Bechev analyzes U.S.-Turkish relations in the context of Erdogan’s charm offensive on Washington, arguing that his broader policy objectives have not changed.

Biden Could Be the German Election’s Biggest Loser

Stefano Graziosi and James Jay Carafano

National Interest

July 4, 2021

Bottom Line: Italian essayist and political analyst Stefano Graziosi and TVC Advisory Board member Jim Carafano analyze the effects of upcoming German elections on a range of important policy issues in the U.S.-German relationship.

Tesla’s Fall From Grace in China Shows Perils of Betting on Beijing

Matthew Campbell

Bloomberg Businessweek

July 5, 2021

Bottom Line: Matthew Campbell highlights the potential dangers of doing business with Beijing in this detailed account of Tesla’s recent difficulties operating in China.

China-US Relations In The Eyes Of The Chinese Communist Party: An Insider’s Perspective

Cai Xia

Hoover Institution

June 29, 2021

Bottom Line: The Hoover Institution recently released an essay in English and Chinese by Cai Xia, a Chinese dissident and former professor at the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party, which provides a firsthand account of the CCP’s worldview.

Israel’s growing ties to China are testing its relationship with the US

David Feith

Washington Post

July 6, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member David Feith examines how Israel’s transition to a post-Netanyahu government might change Israel’s relationship to China.

Cyber Risk Across the U.S. Nuclear Enterprise

Herbert Lin

Texas National Security Review

Summer 2021

Bottom Line: Herbert Lin argues that reliance on modern information technologies could lead to failures of nuclear deterrence or nuclear war, suggesting that the Biden administration has a critical opportunity to address cyber vulnerabilities.

Biden Needs an International Organizations Strategy

Richard Goldberg

Foreign Policy

June 29, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Goldberg draws critical attention to the systematic exploitation of international organizations by hostile actors, calling on the Biden administration to develop a strategy beyond engagement to advance U.S. interests.

The Fight Against Corruption in Central America Needs to Get Ugly

Shannon K. O’Neil

Bloomberg Opinion

June 23, 2021

Bottom Line: O’Neil outlines specific steps the United States should take to root out corruption in Central America and mitigate the border crisis.

Does Ukraine Matter to America?

Jon Lerner

National Interest

June 28, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Jon Lerner highlights critical gains made by the Trump administration in countering Russia’s malign activities and supporting Ukraine and provides a detailed analysis of the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations.

The Biden-Putin Summit Has Opened the Floodgates

Eric Edelman and David J. Kramer

The Dispatch

June 25, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Governance Board member Eric Edelman and Advisory Board member David Kramer evaluate the recent Biden-Putin summit and its unfortunate facilitation of the new German and French outreach to Putin.

How the Afghanistan Withdrawal Costs the U.S. With China

Richard Fontaine and Vance Serchuk

The Atlantic

June 25, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Richard Fontaine and Vance Serchuk challenge the argument that the Afghanistan withdrawal will help the United States technologically, militarily, and economically in great power competition with China.

Is Washington Right to Leave Afghanistan?

Foreign Affairs

June 22, 2021

Bottom Line: Foreign Affairs surveys dozens of experts on the consequences of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Experts offer views across the spectrum in short blurbs.

Biden’s Afghanistan Pullout Could Make the China Problem Harder

Michael J. Green and Gabriel Scheinmann

Foreign Policy

June 24, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board members Michael Green and Gabriel Scheinmann likewise examine the Afghanistan withdrawal in the context of great power competition, arguing that a modest U.S. presence will advance U.S. strategic interests.

Table for Two

David J. Kramer

American Purpose

June 22, 2021

Bottom Line: David Kramer provides a detailed analysis of the Biden-Putin summit, arguing that the meeting did not advance U.S. interests or improve bilateral relations.

G-7 Gives World Three Biden Lessons—Here Are the Surprising Things We’ve Learned

James Jay Carafano

Fox News

June 17, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Jim Carafano provides a brief overview of lessons learned from Biden’s first foreign trip, focusing on the G7 meetings.

Opinion: Biden lifts Putin out of international isolationism

Konstantin Eggert

Deutsche Welle (English)

June 18, 2021

Bottom Line: Russian journalist Konstantin Eggert provides a detailed analysis of the Biden-Putin summit. Eggert covers many of the key issues discussed and argues that Biden may have made a conceptual error in judging Putin on Cold War merits.

Delusional West

Editorial

Kyiv Post

June 18, 2021

Bottom Line: The Kyiv Post argues that Ukraine came out worse from the three big events of Biden’s foreign trip — the G7, NATO summit, and Biden-Putin meeting — highlighting for instance the dire consequences for Ukraine of Biden’s green light to Nord Stream 2.

Corporate social responsibility should mean offsetting business ties in China

Morgan Ortagus

The Hill

June 14, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Morgan Ortagus identifies the specific steps corporations can take to offset business ties with China.

America’s backwards tax system is forcing ex-pats to cut ties with the US

Colleen Graffy

The Telegraph

June 10, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Colleen Graffy highlights the consequences of a unique taxation problem faced by Americans living overseas.

Iran election: Hardliner Raisi will become president

BBC News

June 19, 2021

Bottom Line: This BBC article briefly details the consequences of the Iranian presidential election for Iran and the world.

NEW REPORT – Iranian Influence Networks in the United Kingdom: Audit and Analysis

Paul Stott

Henry Jackson Society

June 7, 2021

Bottom line: As President Biden visits the United Kingdom, a 100-page paper details Iran’s interference in British political, cultural, and religious life, including by promoting Scottish independence, and attacking Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the fight against terrorism

Rome Could Be Washington’s Ideal Partner on China

James Jay Carafano and Stefano Graziosi

Heritage

June 8, 2021

Bottom Line: Carafano and Graziosi argue that Italy may hold the key to ensuring a tougher European stance on China and a united allied position.

It’s Time for Biden to Get Tough on Russia

Peter Rough and Tim Morrison

National Review

June 14, 2021

Bottom Line: In light of the Biden-Putin meeting this week, Rough and Morrison argue that the administration’s policies on Russia need significant improvement.

Five Ways Biden Can Get the Most from His Meeting with Putin

Daniel Baer and David J. Kramer

The Bulwark

June 14, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member David Kramer joins Daniel Baer in offering specific advice to President Biden for his meeting with the Russian president.

Chaos on the Horizon: Pakistan Wants a Risky Reset

Paul Kapur

National Interest

June 6, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Advisory Board member Paul Kapur offers strategic advice to the Biden administration on the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. He concludes that although a reset in the relationship sounds attractive, it is unlikely to succeed.

The U.S. Midwest Is Foreign Oligarchs’ New Playground

Casey Michel and Paul Massaro

Foreign Policy

June 3, 2021

Bottom Line: Michel and Massaro draw important attention to kleptocracies’ destructive actions in working class towns and detail the June 10th launch of the Congressional Caucus Against Foreign Corruption and Kleptocracy.

Human Smugglers Couldn’t Care Less About Kamala Harris’ ‘Do Not Come’ Message

Emily Green

Vice World News

June 9, 2021

Bottom Line: Drawing on interviews with Guatemalans, Mexico-city based and Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Emily Green offers a unique perspective on VP Harris’s trip.

China’s covid wrongdoing warrants punishment by a Biden-led coalition

Mike Pompeo and Lewis Libby

Washington Post

June 7, 2021

Bottom Line: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Lewis Libby join forces in a timely op-ed urging the Biden administration to lead a fair and effective international response to the Chinese Communist Party’s malfeasance in the spread of Covid-19.

A Just Response to Beijing’s COVID-19 Abuses

David Asher, Thomas DiNanno, David Feith, Miles Yu, and Matthew Zweig

Hudson Institute

June 6, 2021

Bottom Line: Five former Trump administration officials, including those who were central to shaping the U.S. foreign policy response to Covid, outline specific steps the Biden administration and Congress should take to get answers from China.

Investigate the origins of COVID-19

Jesse D. Bloom, Yujia Alina Chan, Ralph S. Baric, Pamela J. Bjorkman, Sarah Cobey, Benjamin E. Deverman, David N. Fisman, Ravindra Gupta, Akiko Iwasaki, Marc Lipsitch, Ruslan Medzhitov, Richard A. Neher, Rasmus Nielsen, Nick Patterson, Tim Stearns, Erik van Nimwegen, Michael Worobey, David A. Relman

Science

May 14, 2021

Bottom Line: A group of distinguished scientists speaks out on Covid debates in Science magazine, calling for further investigation into the origins of the pandemic and noting that both accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover remain viable theories.

How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Lab-Leak Theory

Donald G. McNeil Jr

May 17, 2021

Bottom Line: Former New York Times science and health reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. provides a reflective and detailed firsthand account of reporting on Covid origins.

Origin of Covid — Following the Clues

Nicholas Wade

May 2, 2021

Bottom Line: In an informative and meticulous essay, science writer Nicholas Wade sorts through the available facts on the origins of the Covid virus, providing readers with a wealth of evidence to make their own judgments about the roots of the pandemic.

The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Katherine Eban

Vanity Fair

June 3, 2021

Bottom Line: TVC Governance Board member Matthew Pottinger and Advisory Board member David Feith, who both served at high levels in the Trump administration, are quoted extensively in this Vanity Fair essay on Covid origins. The piece draws on months of investigation, more than 40 interviews, and the review of numerous documents.

The Myth of Authoritarian Superiority: China’s Response to Covid-19 Revisited

Yanzhong Huang

China Leadership Monitor

June 1, 2021

Bottom Line: Huang examines whether China’s authoritarian model is better suited to crisis management than liberal democracy, using the pandemic response as a case study. Huang concludes that China’s authoritarian model does not perform better.

Biden’s Risky Risk-Averse Foreign Policy—Why It’s Not Smart To Mimic Obama

Jim Carafano

Heritage

May 25, 2021

Bottom Line: Carafano argues that the same people who incorrectly branded President Trump’s foreign policy as isolationist are now embracing an internationalism on the part of President Biden that in fact constitutes the kind of pernicious isolationism likely to invite aggression, as we saw during the Obama administration in multiple regions.

Japan to scrap 1% GDP cap on defense spending: Minister Kishi

Junnosuke Kobara

Nikkei Asia

May 20, 2021

Bottom Line: Japan to scrap traditional 1-percent GDP cap on defense spending, as it looks to increase defensive capabilities to counter dangerous security threats.

The ICC’s Fundamental Design Flaws Have Only Become More Evident

Stephen Rademaker

ABA-ICC Project

May 24, 2021

Bottom Line: Rademaker provides a critical overview of the ICC’s fundamental design flaws as part of a series on the U.S.-ICC relationship.

Reputation Laundering in the University Sector of Open Societies: An International Forum Working Paper

Alexander Cooley, Tena Prelec, John Heathershaw, Tom Mayne

National Endowment for Democracy International Forum for Democratic Studies Working Paper

May 2021, 2021

Bottom Line: The authors explore the effects of kleptocratic reputational laundering through donations and other means at universities and think tanks. They argue that addressing this type of laundering must be a priority for academic institutions, recommending a number of changes to donation and giving policies.

The Wedge Strategy Logic of U.S.-Russia Dialogue

Timothy W. Crawford

Cornell University Press Blog

May 25, 2021

Bottom Line: Crawford notes that the geopolitics behind Biden’s push for a “strategic stability dialogue” with Russia are of a trilateral — not bilateral — nature in light of the looming U.S.-China-Russia triangle. In this context, Crawford asks “If Russia and China are using wedge strategies to weaken U.S.-led alliances in Europe and East Asia, can the U.S. use them to divide Russia from China?”

Why ‘Plutonium Pits’ Are Key to Updating Our Aging Nuclear Arsenal

Rebeccah L. Heinrichs and Tim Morrison

The Dispatch

May 20, 2021

Bottom Line: The Biden administration has begun reviewing U.S. nuclear posture in advance of a formal nuclear posture review (NPR). Heinrichs and Morrison advise the administration to maintain the bipartisan consensus to fully modernize the U.S. nuclear deterrent, emphasizing the need to embrace plans to reconstitute a plutonium pit production capability at two sites.

Belarusian Opposition Leader: The West Must Do More

Yasmeen Serhan

The Atlantic

May 26, 2021

Bottom Line: The Atlantic interviews a Belarusian opposition leader on the recent Ryanair plane grounding and the practical steps governments could take in response.

Don’t Withdraw U.S. Forces from the Middle East

Roger Zakheim

National Review

May 24, 2021

Bottom Line: Zakheim argues that President Biden’s plan to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan needs a dose of realism, arguing that a reimagined military presence in the Middle East is essential to furthering U.S. national security interests.

After the Conflict: Can Palestinian Politics Replace Violence and Terror?

Elliott Abrams

The Hill

May 24, 2021

Bottom Line: Abrams explores lessons learned from the recent Israel-Hamas war. He provides a detailed analysis of Palestinian politics and offers several insightful suggestions for the Biden administration, Arab states, Israel, and others seeking peace and stability.

Biden Must Reverse Course on Iran — Before It’s Too Late

Sen. Bill Hagerty and H.R. McMaster

Real Clear Politics

May 11, 2021

Bottom Line: Hagerty and McMaster argue that President Biden must reverse course on Iran before it is too late. He should preserve sanctions and acknowledge that maximum pressure, not conciliation, is the best way to force the Iranian regime to choose either behaving like a normal nation or facing economic ruin

Biden Has Emboldened Israel’s Enemies

Editorial

National Review

May 12, 2021

Bottom Line: This National Review editorial provides background on the crisis in Israel, linking to several other informative articles. The editorial concludes that the Mideast policies pursued by the current administration have emboldened Israel’s enemies.

The Realignment

Michal Doran and Tony Badran

Tablet

May 10, 2021

Bottom Line: In this detailed essay, Doran and Badran provide a discerning overview of recent U.S. policy toward the Middle East, arguing that the Biden administration is continuing a misguided Obama-era approach to the region.

A Middle Class Foreign Policy Must Address Universities’ China Dependence

Amanda J. Rothschild

Newsweek

May 14, 2021

Bottom Line: Debates on student visas for foreign nationals often obscure the profound moral and economic consequences of higher education’s financial dependence on China, including preferencing foreign nationals in admission and perpetuating ballooning tuition costs. A true “foreign policy for the middle class” must address these issues.

Seven Steps Joe Biden Should Take To Solve the Border Crisis

James Jay Carafano

Detroit News

April 7, 2021

Bottom Line: Carafano argues that achieving sustained border security is an achievable goal, outlining seven steps for sustained border security.

Ransomware Is Coming; It’ll Make You Wannacry

Klon Kitchen

The Kitchen Sync

May 11, 2021

Bottom Line: Kitchen’s newsletter returns to an article he penned with Dr. Megan Reiss in 2018 on the growing risk of ransomware to highlight new dangers and possible solutions. An important read in light of the recent Colonial Pipeline crisis.

The Future of “Great Power Competition”

Alexander B. Gray and Jacob McCarty

Defense Dossier

May 17, 2021

Bottom Line: Several articles of interest in this issue of Defense Dossier, including Klon Kitchen’s “The Chinese Threat to Privacy” and Alexander Gray’s “Protecting the U.S. Supply Chain from China.” Other articles include pieces on 5G competition, countering China in Africa, and Chinese human rights abuses.

Securing Freedom by Multiplying Associations

Peter Berkowitz

Real Clear Politics

May 16, 2021

Bottom Line: Berkowitz argues that the United States should promote diverse associations within international civil society to secure freedom and meet the China Challenge.

A Plan for NATO to Get Serious About Russia

Kurt Volker

CEPA

May 21, 2021

Bottom Line: Volker provides a detailed agenda for NATO Allies to address Russian aggression at the summit in Brussels next month.

What We Have Learned About Biden’s Foreign Policy

Eric Edelman

The Dispatch

May 10, 2021

Bottom Line: Despite limited discussion on foreign policy in Biden’s address to a Joint Session of Congress, it is critical to track the Biden administration’s approach. Edelman provides a thoughtful assessment of where the administration has made important inroads – and what consequences may arise if other policies are not re-evaluated.

U.S. National Security Strategy: Lessons Learned

Paul Lettow

Texas National Security Review

Spring 2021

Bottom Line: The Biden team is likely to produce a national security strategy in the next year or two. To succeed, the Biden administration will need to heed lessons from previous presidential administrations. Lettow provides a detailed history of the processes and strategies of several past administrations, beginning with the Eisenhower administration.

The U.S. Can Support Freedom’s Ferment in Iran: Follow the example of the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which helped bring about the Soviet collapse

Ray Takeyh

Wall Street Journal

May 2, 2021

Bottom Line: Ray Takeyh urges the United States to follow the example of the Helsinki Accords with the Soviet Union and include human rights in any negotiations with Iran.

The Dragon Descends Southwards: Chinese Foreign Policy in Latin America Warrants a U.S. Response

Ryan Berg and Allison Schwartz

Georgetown Security Studies Review

May 4, 2021

Bottom Line: The United States should pay more attention to the role of Latin America and the Caribbean in strategic competition with China. Amid growing security and economic threats to the region, the United States must develop a comprehensive plan to avert geopolitical insolvency and win the great power competition in its neighborhood.

Why Should We Care About Digital Currencies?

Bonnie Glick and Erik Bethel

Newsweek

April 28, 2021

Bottom Line: Former U.S. Executive Director of the World Bank and Deputy Administrator of USAID under the Trump administration highlight the critical importance of digital currencies in great power competition. Bethel and Glick warn that China is poised to lead the charge into a digital global economy.

America’s Military Risks Losing Its Edge: How to Transform the Pentagon for a Competitive Era

Michele A. Flournoy

Foreign Affairs

May/June 2021

Bottom Line: Former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Michele Flournoy, warns of critical deficiencies in America’s military preparedness to meet growing great power threats, particularly those posed by the Chinese Communist Party. Flournoy outlines several urgent recommendations for the Department of Defense to ensure that the United States maintains its military and technological edge over competitors.

Biden Must Boost 2022 Budget To Counter China

Thomas Spoehr

Breaking Defense

May 5, 2021

Bottom Line: Spoehr argues that now is the wrong time to constrain defense spending. The Biden administration should instead work with Congress to establish a higher defense topline. Secretary Austin and Chairman Milley must articulate the need for sufficient resourcing and stop self-defeating rivalries.

A New Coalition to Advance U.S. Global Interests

The U.S. is at a critical crossroads when it comes to the defense of American freedom, security and prosperity. Around the world, the U.S. faces significant national-security threats […]

How The United States Can Avert War By Backing Taiwan Peacefully Now

By Rebeccah L. Heinrichs

The Federalist

April 12, 2021

Bottom Line: Communist China may soon attempt to seize free and democratic Taiwan. If the United States has not adapted its weapons deployments in time to win against the PRC at acceptable costs, the United States will not defend Taiwan from attack, allowing the Chinese Communist Party to score a “death blow” to the United States in today’s great power competition. If, on the other hand, the CCP miscalculates U.S. and allied will to defend Taiwan, a serious and potentially “nightmarish” war would ensue. The United States and its partners should work together urgently now to prevent these outcomes.

What to Do: To bolster deterrence, the United States should provide greater strategic clarity on U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan. The U.S. should also push for greater weapons sales to Taiwan, implement a robust forward posture in the Indo-Pacific theater, fortify Guam against potential attack by the PRC, quickly produce and deploy ground-launched cruise missiles, and emphasize close cooperation with regional allies and partners, as the United States already has through the Quad partnership with India, Australia, and Japan.

Commons Foreign Affairs Chief Tom Tugendhat Hit By Chinese ‘Psyops’ Attack Claiming He Has Quit Over Sanctions

By Hugo Gye

The i

April 9, 2021

Bottom Line: British Commons Foreign Affairs Chief Tom Tugendhat claimed to have been targeted by a Chinese “psyops” attack after an email in his name was sent to fellow MPs claiming he had resigned because of sanctions imposed on him by the Chinese Communist Party.

What to Do: British MPs targeted with sanctions by China are outspoken critics of the CCP. Twenty-eight former Trump administration officials were also recently sanctioned by the CCP, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Deputy National Security Adviser and Vandenberg Governing Board Member Matthew Pottinger, and former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Vandenberg Advisory Board Member David Stilwell.

As this article notes, the Essex Court barrister’s chambers has recently seen members depart because they can no longer do business in Asia. The effectiveness of CCP sanctions will be reduced, as the costs of not doing business with China are also reduced. The United States should encourage solidarity within the U.S. and with our partners in standing against these measures and take steps to help insulate government officials from their effects.

Israel: The Longer View

By Michel Gurfinkiel

First Things

April 20, 2021

Bottom Line: French journalist Michel Gurfinkiel highlights several counter-intuitive facts regarding the March 23 Israeli general election, arguing that the results were not simply confirmation of systemic political deadlock resulting from the country’s electoral system. He asserts the following: first, whereas the election was inconclusive in terms of seats, the Netanyahu-led right clearly won in terms of the popular vote; second, Israel is now emerging as the most conservative nation in the democratic world; third, it is misleading to describe the Israeli parliamentary deadlock as a duel between two political blocs of equal strength; fourth, the 2021 election signals drastic political change among Israeli Arabs.

What to Do: Taking the longer view of the elections leads Gurfinkiel to several conclusions worth attention, including the following: the possibility of a direct, quasi-presidential election of the prime minister on an exceptional basis; the potential for Israel’s conservative turn to influence Israeli media, academia, and the courts, as well as inspire conservatives in other democratic countries; the likelihood that the “anti-Netanyahu bloc” is not strong enough to lead a government majority; and the possibility for the Abraham Accords to increasingly lead Israeli Arabs and Muslim parties to embrace Jewish-Arab cooperation alongside a growing number of Arab states. Gurfinkiel encourages Western nations to pay close attention to this development, noting that conservative policies may do a better job of addressing Muslim immigration than liberal policies like those implemented in Europe or North America.

As Netanyahu Eyes a Fifth Election Is He Driving Bennett into Lapid’s Arms?

By Haviv Rettig Gur

The Times of Israel

April 22, 2021

Bottom Line: Gur argues that Netanyahu’s attacks on Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett are a result of Netanyahu’s decision to go for a fifth election, which requires ensuring that Yair Lapid, chairman of Yesh Atid, does not piece together a coalition with Bennett after he fails. However, Gur points out that there’s a tipping point Netanyahu doesn’t see, and he may not be able to tell when he’s crossed the line at which the effect of his vilification campaign on Bennett is reversed.

What to Do: Paying attention to strategic incentives and consequences surrounding the Netanyahu-Bennett exchange may provide useful insights about the direction of Israeli politics.

Look to the Reagan Administration for the Answer to the China Challenge

By H.R. McMaster and Jonathan D.T. Ward

LA Times

March 15, 2021

Bottom Line: In the great power competition with China today, the United States must apply Reagan’s fundamental insight from the Cold War — to win against a rival of China’s magnitude requires sustained pressure against the true sources of the adversary’s power.

What to Do: The United States and its partners should restrict investment into Chinese companies and industries that support the CCP’s goals and human rights abuses. The United States should block China’s access to Western technology in areas that contribute to military advantage and construct a new trade and supply chain system that reduces dependency on China. With India, Australia, and Japan, the U.S. must maintain preponderant military power in the Indo-Pacific. In all of this, America and its allies should be confident.

Biden Must Follow the Law and Sanction Nord Stream Now

By Michael McCaul and Jim Risch

Foreign Policy

March 29, 2021

Bottom Line: The Nord Stream 2 pipeline poses a significant national security risk to the United States and NATO partners, and the Biden administration must urgently implement the mandatory U.S. sanctions on all vessels and companies currently working to complete the Nord Stream 2 project.

What to Do: Urgently implement required sanctions on entities facilitating construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; do not attempt to bolster relations with Germany by placating a Russian energy project that threatens NATO and U.S. security; promote energy independence for the United States and its allies and partners and avoid dependence on foreign adversaries and competitors.

How Biden’s Foreign Policy Approach Builds on Trump’s

By Lisa Curtis

CNN

March 12, 2021

Bottom Line: The Biden administration is right to continue the Trump administration’s focus on strengthening the “Quad” – a loose alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.

What to Do: Bolster the Quad to deter China from hostile behavior, such as the recent clashes with India and Australia; use the Quad to lead efforts for alternative supply chains that bypass China; pool Quad resources and expand information and data exchange to enhance maritime security in the Indo-Pacific; consider expanding Quad discussions to include South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and others on an issue-by-issue basis.

Key Republican Lessons for Biden’s Global Agenda

By Michael J. Green, A. Wess Mitchell, Amanda J. Rothschild, Kori Schake, Daniel Twining

Foreign Policy

February 3, 2021

Bottom Line: Five former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations share their foreign-policy advice for the new team.

What to Do: Impose strategic discipline on the national security team; reform the NATO alliance to prepare for rivalry with Russia and China; don’t abandon key achievements from the Trump administration; avoid making defense excessively subservient to domestic goals; leverage America’s democratic edge to undercut authoritarian rivals.

A Good Battery Is the Best Defense Against a Military Assault

By Arthur Herman and Nadia Schadlow

The Wall Street Journal

March 30, 2021

Bottom Line: The development and manufacturing of batteries is likely to become a modern-day arms race. Advanced batteries provide energy that can help the Pentagon execute multiple missions across long distances unhindered by the obstacles posed by adversaries. The United States will need to invest in a secure innovation and production base for advanced battery technology.

What to Do: The Defense Department must work closely with battery manufacturers and other parts of government, such as the Energy Department, to reshore this key part of America’s defense innovation base.

The Downsides of Downsizing: Why the United States Needs Four Hundred ICBMs

By Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, Christian Trotti

Atlantic Council

March 29, 2021

Bottom Line: Downsizing the ICBM force to three hundred missiles would undermine the major goals of U.S. nuclear strategy by reducing the U.S. ability to achieve its goals if deterrence fails, increasing the risk that adversaries initiate and escalate military challenges, and hindering U.S. ability to hedge against an uncertain future.

What to Do: The Department of Defense should add missiles to fill existing, unused silos, which would be a treaty-compliant and cost-effective way to strengthen U.S. nuclear posture; the United States should modestly increase the size of its ICBM force by deploying an additional twenty-five ICBMs among its existing fifty empty silos in accordance with New START limits.

The Abraham Accords Hold the Key to Biden’s East Med Policy

By Matthew Zais

MENASource

April 6, 2021

Bottom Line: The natural gas debate between climate idealists and energy realists in the Biden administration threatens to diminish the potential and power of America’s international energy diplomacy. Leadership in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum provides the United States an opportunity to bolster its international energy diplomacy in the region and champion the geopolitical power of energy cooperation.

What to Do: The United States should actively participate and be a leader in EMGF in order to: reduce global emissions through natural gas solutions; challenge Turkish aggression by enabling regional energy cooperation and expanding beyond gas and the Mediterranean; counter Russia and China by coupling diplomatic efforts through the EMGF with a re-commitment to U.S. financial institutions like the DFC and EXIM to leverage American energy dominance and realize effective international energy diplomacy.

Is Iran Being Turned into a Chinese Gas Station?

By Elliott Abrams

National Review

March 30, 2021

Bottom Line: The figures cited in the recent agreement for China to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years should be viewed with skepticism. Either the amounts are mostly propaganda to boost both the Chinese and Iranian regimes, or if the amounts are accurate, the regime, suffering under U.S. sanctions, is selling the country to China.

What to Do: Foreign policy experts and officials should further scrutinize the numbers in the China-Iran deal. The Iranian people should seek more transparent information about what has been agreed to in this partnership.

The Real Iran Deal Needs to Include All the Relevant Actors

By Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky

The Jerusalem Post

April 12, 2021

Bottom Line: Comprehensive economic and security pacts between the United States, Iran, Israel, and other regional partners are the best way to address the insolvency of the Iranian economy and the regime’s nuclear program.

What to Do: The U.S. should lead in the negotiation of the Cyrus Accords between the United States, Iran, Israel, and other regional partners. The Cyrus Accords should require the renunciation of hostilities between the signatories, use U.S. and Israel public-private partnerships to support Iranian capacity, and promote regional cooperation to assist Iran in upgrading its energy industry and engaging in a collective security construct that would encourage stability.

Holding Iran Accountable: The Importance of Maintaining Sanctions Leverage

By Robert Greenway

Hudson Institute

April 21, 2021

Bottom Line: Lifting sanctions before the Iranian regime changes its behavior endangers our national security, undermines the legitimacy of our authorities, erodes the impact of a vital tool with broad bipartisan support, and exposes our actions to an unnecessary legal challenge.

What to Do: As the negotiations on returning to the 2015 JCPOA continue, all sanctions outside the scope of Iran’s nuclear activities should be excluded. If Tehran seeks relief beyond the bounds of the JCPOA, we should pursue a new deal that encompasses all of Iran’s malign behavior. Revoking designations should follow the same process as employing sanctions. The administration should conduct an intelligence assessment to confirm that the conditions that prompted the designation are no longer present. Congress should require the same rigor to remove the State Sponsors of Terrorism designation as to impose it, among other vital actions.

Three Ways the Biden Administration Can Bolster the U.S.-Japan Relationship

By H.R. McMaster & Riley Walters

Washington Times

March 3, 2021

Bottom Line: The Biden Administration must “build on top” of the already strong U.S.-Japan alliance to effectively counter the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea and the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Chinese Communist Party.

What to Do: The Biden Administration should do the following: select an experienced Asia expert for ambassador to Japan, strengthen the Quad, and work with Tokyo to push through reform of the WHO and other international organizations; work with Tokyo to encourage other countries to enforce U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea and counter the CCP’s aggressive and genocidal practices; and support Japan’s continued leadership on critical regional trade and investment by clarifying the 2019 U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement and encouraging the admission of Taiwan to the CPTPP Committee.

Beijing Targets American Business

By Matthew Pottinger

Wall Street Journal

March 26, 2021

Bottom Line: The United States and the Chinese Communist Party are strategic and ideological competitors. American CEOs, their boards, and their investors have to decide which side they want to help win.

What to Do: U.S. companies should do the following: understand that it will become increasingly difficult to placate both Washington and Beijing; formally review the effects of great power competition and new regulatory, fiduciary, and reputational risks; and draw up contingencies to diversify supply chains. Above all, we must ensure that every policy, bill, and government-industry partnership increases our leverage in the competition.

Significant Shortcomings Alert: Biden is Struggling to Find Success in India

By S. Paul Kapur

National Interest

April 11, 2021

Bottom Line: The Biden administration’s approach to the U.S.-India partnership has fallen short in a number of important areas. These could cause problems in the months and years ahead.

What to Do: Don’t relegate partners that are not formal treaty allies, like India and Vietnam, to second tier status; avoid publicly commenting on issues that India would prefer be handled privately; embrace the accomplishments of the Trump administration in advancing U.S.-India relations in order to build on these successes.

Securing Freedom for the Middle Class, and All Americans

By Peter Berkowitz

Real Clear Politics

April 24, 2021

Bottom Line: The Biden administration’s focus straight out of the gate on implementing a progressive agenda favored by intellectual and political elites constitutes a repudiation of Trump administration concerns for working families and the middle class.

What to Do: The Administration should focus on developing programs to train a new generation of diplomats and security officials in languages and high-tech know-how.

Reports & Statements