The Vandenberg Coalition brings you reports and research from critical regions around the globe.
Mailys Pene-Lassus | Nikkei Asia | July 1, 2022
Bottom Line: War in Europe has renewed NATO’s purpose as the bulwark against Russian aggression, but for the first time, the alliance has also turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific and the “systemic challenges” posed by the People’s Republic of China.
Robert Pszczel | Royal United Services Institute | June 29, 2022
Bottom Line: Contra the narrative that NATO has provoked Russian aggression, the alliance has prioritized conflict prevention for decades. NATO must view Russia’s war on Ukraine with clear eyes and commit to a policy of military containment of aggression.
Yonah Jeremy Bob | The Jerusalem Post | June 27, 2022
Bottom Line: The operations of one of Iran’s largest steel companies have ground to a halt following a cyber attack launched by the hacktivist group Predatory Sparrow in retaliation against “Tehran’s terrorist regime.”
Alex Lawson | The Guardian | June 26, 2022
Bottom Line: As European countries swear off Russian “blood oil,” Indian refineries continue to launder Moscow’s product onto the international market. Ukraine’s president argues that European companies using this oil are complicit in Moscow’s war crimes.
CK Tan | Nikkei Asia | June 23, 2022
Bottom Line: At a recent summit, the Chinese president attempted to dissuade the rising “BRICS” countries from aligning themselves with Western “hegemony” and deployed practiced rhetoric to shield Moscow from responsibility for its crimes in Ukraine.
TVC Advisory Board Member Nate Sibley | The Wall Street Journal | June 26, 2022
Bottom Line: Despite Xi’s vaunted anti-corruption campaign, the CCP continues to operate as a kleptocratic regime. The West can erode the party’s domestic legitimacy and international influence by drawing attention to corruption emanating from Beijing.
David Barno & Nora Bensahel | War on the Rocks | June 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers the U.S. military a valuable case study into the changing character of contemporary warfare. However, the Army in particular needs to draw the right lessons from this conflict in order to best prepare for the future.
Peter Rough | Foreign Policy | June 16, 2022
Bottom Line: Despite initial pledges of support for the defense of Ukraine, Germany’s government does not appear to view Moscow as a major threat. Berlin continues to slow-roll military aid and may yet walk back its promised investment in NATO defenses.
TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen | 19FortyFive | June 23, 2022
Bottom Line: With inflation on the rise, Congress plans to supplement the Biden administration’s FY23 defense budget request. However, a delay in passing the budget would wipe out any benefits of a top line funding increase, decimating military readiness.
Maj. Gen. John Ferrari (USA, ret.)
Breaking Defense
June 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Decades of poor management, failed modernization projects, and unsustainable shipbuilding programs have caused the Navy to fall into disrepair. Congress must create an independent commission like those applied to the post-Vietnam “hollow” U.S. Army to chart a new course for the Navy in the twenty-first century.
MercoPress
June 10, 2022
Bottom Line: President Ortega has invited Russian forces to enter Nicaragua and join in training exercises and policing missions alongside the country’s military. Russian media has celebrated the opportunity to deploy troops in the United States’ backyard.
Ryan C. Berg & Evan Ellis
CSIS
June 9, 2022
Bottom Line: China has worked to develop exploitive economic ties to multiple Central American countries. Investing in existing Honduran economic institutions offers the U.S. an opportunity to counter PRC influence in the region.
TVC Advisory Board Member Danielle Pletka
The Dispatch
June 9, 2022
Bottom Line: The Biden administration continues to pursue a renewal of the Iran nuclear deal; however, with midterm elections looming the incentives for both the U.S. Congress and Tehran to accede to a new agreement are fast diminishing.
Saeed Ghasseminejad
National Interest
June 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Russia’s war has stalled grain exports which feed tens of millions of people across the Middle East & North Africa. Domestic unrest in countries including Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran will continue to grow as long as food remains scarce and expensive.
John Raine
IISS
June 8, 2022
Bottom Line: As Russia’s war on Ukraine challenges the security of Europe, the West’s response hints at how future security guarantees may operate in the Indo-Pacific, with emphasis on economic, diplomatic, and technological leverage over sheer military mass.
Bottom Line Up Front: ● Russia’s war of aggression has nearly halted grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, destabilizing a fragile world food market already stressed by the pandemic and recent droughts. ● Prices of grain and other staple crops are up 50 percent on world markets, which the UN estimates could drive hundreds of millions into food insecurity and provoke famine in the developing world. ● Food instability will continue to drive up costs for Americans here at home and could destabilize countries in the developing world, exacerbating the risk of conflict and terrorism. Read the Full Document
Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
May 9, 2022
Bottom Line: The voices who insisted that the United States needed to strike a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons at any price are now arguing Washington cannot aid Ukraine for risk of war with Russia. The underlying sentiment is the same: appease brutal dictators.
Mark Tooley
Providence Magazine
May 5, 2022
Bottom Line: Poland was brutalized by Nazis and Soviets alike in the 20th century but emerged victorious and independent by century’s end. Like Poland before it, Ukraine has found the strength to defend itself and inspires others to resist aggression.
Chuck Ross
The Washington Free Beacon
May 6, 2022
Bottom Line: As organizations inside the Beltway and across America work to cut ties with China, the Association of Former Members of Congress remains deeply enmeshed with a known CCP United Front organization working to influence U.S. opinion & policy.
Richard Herr
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
May 5, 2022
Bottom Line: China’s recent security pact with the nearby Solomon Islands has become a campaign issue in Australia’s upcoming federal elections, with Prime Minister Morrison vowing to take action if China builds naval bases in the archipelago.
TVC Advisory Board Member Patrick Quirk with David O. Shullman
The Atlantic Council
May 6, 2022
Bottom Line: The leaders of both Russia and China believe the spread of democracy is a threat to their grip on power. Putin & Xi promote authoritarianism around the world in order to undermine American power and influence and bolster their own security.
Heljä Ossa and Tommi Koivula
War On the Rocks
May 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Two Finnish defense researchers argue that if Finland applies for NATO membership this month, the Nordic republic would punch well above its weight militarily. Finland’s modern equipment, well-trained reserve corps, strong culture of self-defense, and history of staring down Russia would make it a valuable member of the alliance.
TVC Advisory Board Member Richard Goldberg
The Wall Street Journal
May 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Biden appears to have rejected Iran’s demand to remove the IRGC from the U.S. list for “foreign terrorist organizations.” The administration should go further and refuse to lift sanctions on the banks that finance the organization’s terror campaigns.
TVC Advisory Board Member Keith Krach
Fortune
April 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Board directors and company officers have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shown the risks of investing in authoritarian regimes. Companies must prepare now to insulate themselves from Xi Jinping & the CCP.
TVC Advisory Board Member Bonnie Glick & Kennedy Lee
Deseret News
April 27, 2022
Bottom Line: While artificial intelligence is often presented as a net-good for humanity, technology poses a grave risk to religious liberty. From China to Venezuela to Iran, governments are using AI to surveil, track, and oppress religious minorities.
Martin Sandbu
The Financial Times
May 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Putin has weaponized energy & food supplies in his war on Ukraine. Whether the West aids Ukraine or not, decisions made in Moscow will drive up prices for consumers here at home and around the world. That cannot stop us from aiding Kyiv.
Michael Ellis & Dustin Carmack
RealClear Defense
April 26, 2022
Bottom Line: The NSC should remove the bureaucratic roadblocks preventing the Pentagon’s offensive cyber operators from giving Ukraine ready-made capabilities to disable and destroy Russian networks, just like we supply Ukraine with physical weapons.
Thomas G. Mahnken
Defense News
April 26, 2022
Bottom Line: U.S. & allied support for Ukraine has revealed both the value of precision munitions on the modern battlefield and the fact that the Western defense industrial base is currently inadequate to provide a steady stream of advanced weapons to allied militaries during a high-intensity, protracted conflict with either China or Russia.
TVC Advisory Board Member Clifford D. May
The Washington Times
April 28, 2022
Bottom Line: After a year in office, why have we yet to see President Biden’s strategy for confronting America’s adversaries? Is the administration prepared to lead the free world against the tyrannical regimes of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea?
Susan Crabtree
RealClear Policy
April 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Under the flag of draconian COVID lockdowns, the CCP once again prevented Chinese Christians in Hong Kong & on the mainland from gathering to celebrate Easter. The CCP routinely oppresses Christians and other religious minorities in China.
Russell Hsiao
1945
April 21, 2022
Bottom Line: The Biden administration has taken laudable steps to bring together market-based democratic states to confront the PRC. In the Indo-Pacific, the United States cannot afford to try to appease Beijing by leaving Taiwan out of multilateral initiatives.
The Hindu Editorial Board
April 22, 2022
Bottom Line: The PRC’s recently-sealed military & security pact with the Solomon Islands left American policymakers scrambling to catch up. The deal confirms Beijing’s intention to secure a strategic foothold astride the sea lines of communication between the U.S. and its major Indo-Pacific allies, opening a new front in the New Cold War.
TVC Advisory Board Member David Shedd
The National Interest
April 21, 2022
Bottom Line: The Biden administration foolishly believes it can change Iranian regime’s behavior by returning to the 2015 nuclear deal. Revoking the IRGC’s terrorism designation would only serve to reward Tehran for its long track record of backing terrorist violence.
Maria Chapila
Independent Women’s Forum
April 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Russia is currently preventing all agricultural exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea. Tens of millions of people in dozens of countries dependent on Ukrainian grain for survival face the prospect of famine as long as the war continues.
TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams
National Review
April 25, 2022
Bottom Line: The U.S. veto over binding decisions by the United Nations protects American interests from being steamrolled by an anti-American majority. However, the Biden administration does not seem worried about the ongoing attempt by the General Assembly to seize review power over Security Council vetoes.
Focus Taiwan
Bottom Line: Business & military institutions in the PRC have made significant investments in a venture capital fund aimed at securing access to high-end war technology and circumventing U.S.-led sanctions in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
Providence Magazine
Bottom Line: Putin’s struggle to conquer Ukraine is likely to drive Russia and China closer together, not farther apart. The West cannot pretend that Xi will give up any of his geopolitical leverage over Russia nor that he has abandoned his plan to invade Taiwan.
CIMSEC
Bottom Line: Generations of bureaucratic centralization have deprived the military services of independence in strategic planning and budget advocacy. As Biden’s FY23 budget proposes cutting the size of the fleet, the Navy needs to remember it owes Congress an independent professional assessment of its needs—not the executive branch party line.
RealClear Defense
Bottom Line: Last week, Ukrainian forces sunk the Russian cruiser Moskva—the largest warship lost to enemy action since WWII. The action highlights the fundamental naval dimension of the conflict as Putin seeks to seize control of the Black Sea coast.