The Vandenberg Coalition brings you reports and research from critical regions around the globe.
Western Journal
Bottom Line: Former senior Trump administration officials argue that ‘America First’ does not equate to ‘isolationism’. The U.S. can and should provide military aid to Ukrainians fighting for their independence while enhancing American strength at home.
Wall Street Journal
Bottom Line: Ukraine shares the West’s aspiration for liberty that is based on fundamental human rights, not race or nationality. More than just holding the line against Russian invasion, it is in NATO’s interest for Ukraine to win this war.
RealClear Politics
Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made clear the need to change how we think about the nexus between energy security & national security. We can only prevent American dependence on Russia and China by prioritizing short & medium term investments in American oil & gas and long term investments in clean energy.
Takeshi Kihara & Akira Inujima
Nikkei Asia
April 10, 2022
Bottom Line: China has seen “unprecedented” outflows of foreign capital since the beginning of 2022. Sanctions on Russia over Ukraine may be pushing investors to look at China in a new light and reevaluate the risk inherent in investing in autocratic regimes.
Brad Glosserman
Japan Times
April 5, 2022
Bottom Line: On top of the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 economic dislocation, we are now seeing a flurry of sanctions and embargoes in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the time being, global economic integration may have crested.
TVC Advisory Board Member Victoria Coates
1945
April 11, 2022
Bottom Line: If China invades Taiwan, there is broad support among the American people of all political persuasions for economic sanctions and military aid to help the island nation defend itself. Only six percent of Americans think we should to nothing.
Craig Singleton
Washington Post
April 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Virginia’s public universities are involved in a myriad of programs that support the Chinese military and security services. They provide a snapshot of the work the PRC has done to co-opt American institutions of higher education for nefarious ends.
TVC Advisory Board Member Mark Dubowitz and Matthew Zweig
Wall Street Journal
April 5, 2022
Bottom Line: Iran has evolved sophisticated measures to get around U.S. nuclear weapons & terrorism sanctions. U.S. policymakers need to learn from past mistakes if they want to stop Tehran from helping Moscow evade punishment for its invasion of Ukraine.
Ryosuke Hanada
The Lowy Institute Interpreter
April 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Following Japanese PM Kishida’s recent visit to New Delhi, India issued a statement slightly more critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its prior unilateral pronouncements, highlighting the value of the nascent “Quad” framework.
TVC Advisory Board Member Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu
New York Sun
April 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Finland survived the Cold War through neutrality. Just a few short weeks ago, it seemed unthinkable that Finland would join NATO, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finnish public support for joining the alliance has skyrocketed to 60 percent.
Stephen Kotkin
Foreign Affairs
April 10, 2022
Bottom Line: The end of the original Cold War was a mirage. Russia is plagued by the same geopolitical constraints and autocratic political system as it was during the Cold War, leading Putin to strike at Ukraine in the same manner as Soviet leaders before him.
RealClear Defense
Bottom Line: We cannot afford to rely on alliances alone to keep the peace in Europe or Asia. The time has come to fashion a national security strategy that builds a military sufficient to defeat our primary adversary, China, while effectively deterring Russia & Iran.
Roll Call
Bottom Line: Biden’s defense budget is allegedly the largest of all time, but with record inflation, it has less buying power than last year’s. Uncontrolled inflation stands to further erode DOD’s ability to buy the products and services required for national defense.
Defense One
Bottom Line: Despite the Pentagon Comptroller’s claim that DOD will be less affected by inflation than the general economy, we know the opposite is true. Congress must use its authority to fully address the impacts of inflation on the FY23 defense budget.
National Review
Bottom Line: The long peace is over. Since the Cold War we have systematically underfunded the Defense Department for the missions asked of it. To make up for lost time, DOD’s budget must increase by at least 3-5% above the rate of inflation every year.
Sandboxx
Bottom Line: Congress has mandated for years that the Navy grow to 355+ ships. Biden’s budget cuts the fleet to 280 and puts us on a path for the Chinese Navy to be double the size of America’s within a decade.
Substack
Bottom Line: By cutting the size of the U.S. Navy, Biden’s FY23 defense budget doesn’t just ensure that China will replace us as the premier world power—it hands supremacy to the PRC on a silver platter.
The Hill
Bottom Line: Just as NATO weakness invited Russian aggression against Ukraine, Biden’s plans to cut the size of the Navy will galvanize Chinese aggression against our allies, partners, and interests in the Indo-Pacific.
As the world rightly focuses on the war in Ukraine, it is critical that we
do not forget the crisis generated by America’s premature withdrawal
from Afghanistan. There are currently thousands of Afghan National Army
veterans who fought alongside U.S. troops being hunted by the Taliban on
a daily basis. At the same time, Afghanistan’s women and girls
continue to have their lives and livelihoods taken from them.
Rana Forodoohar
Financial Times
March 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Not only are Russia and Ukraine both top-five grain exporters, but Russia is the second largest producer of fertilizer in the world. Expect sharp rises in food prices and dislocation in global food markets for years to come.
Jeff M. Smith
RealClear World
March 22, 2022
Bottom Line: American policymakers have been frustrated by New Delhi’s reluctance to take a hard line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the U.S. must see past this disagreement and continue to work with India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.
Aaron Gasch Burnett
The Spectator
March 27, 2022
Bottom Line: The ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has a long history of cozy relations with Moscow. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has little choice but to quickly remedy his party’s biggest and most shameful mistake.
TVC Advisory Board Member John Hillen
National Review
March 26, 2022
Bottom Line: It is not yet clear how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will end now that Putin’s first strike has been blunted. However, from Beijing to Tehran to Washington, leaders are adjusting their approach to existing problems based on Moscow’s experience.
TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen
The Dispatch
March 24, 2022
Bottom Line: Ransomware and similar attacks by non-government hackers are the most likely threat against American infrastructure. Cyber attacks by Russian military or intelligence services would be a significant escalation that could not go unpunished.
TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen
AEI Blog
March 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Unparalleled logistical capability has allowed the U.S. military to surge troops to NATO’s eastern front virtually overnight. However, we must invest now in peacetime to ensure we have the logistics networks we will need when crisis strikes.
John Schaus
CSIS
March 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Supporting Ukraine has shown the precariousness of military manufacturing and the need to invest in greater capacity. Canada has run out of munitions to donate. The U.S. has sent half of the Javelin missiles it purchased over the past decade. This level of support is unsustainable in the long run without additional production.
TVC Advisory Board Member Will Inboden (with Adam Klein)
The Hill
March 20, 2022
Bottom Line: Supply of high-end semiconductors is essential to U.S. qualitative military advantage. Those who criticize the CHIPs Act for distorting the market need to recognize that its aim is to help secure this critical supply chain for U.S. industry & the military.
Isaac Schorr
National Review
March 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Led by California and New York, for years blue state governors have held up and cancelled new exploration, production, and pipelines that would mitigate American dependence on foreign oil and gas, driving up prices for working Americans in the process.
Harrison Bradon Morgan
Strategy Bridge
March 15, 2022
Bottom Line: To meet the challenge of great power competition, DoD must reallocate scarce resources. It can start by shrinking the Army to grow the fleet, re-deploying assets to the Indo-Pacific, and investing in cognitive—not just technological—capabilities.
The Forum for American Leadership
March 18, 2022
Bottom Line: The Biden administration is behind schedule releasing its National Security Strategy. The U.S. cannot afford to meet complex challenges like Ukraine without the overarching grand strategic guidance provided by the NSS.
TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen
The Dispatch
March 17, 2022
Bottom Line: To deter China and Russia, DoD needs predictable, flexible, and robust budgets. Congress must take the lead to end continuing destructive resolutions and ensure DoD’s budget grows above the rate of inflation.
Seth Cropsey
RealClear Defense
March 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows us that the direct application of force still takes precedence over the much-vaunted strategy of “hybrid war” that analysts have long described as a game-changer for Russia on the battlefield.
Jeffrey W. Hornung
War on the Rocks
March 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Rather than treating a Chinese victory over Taiwan as inevitable, the example of Ukraine shows us that the U.S. and its allies should start reinforcing the island now to help Taipei defend itself against communist aggression.
Interview with TVC Board Member Matt Pottinger
Adam O’Neal
The Wall Street Journal
March 18, 2022
Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine evokes stark parallels to the Korean War, which helped wake up the West to the treat posed by communism. “We would be remiss not to learn lessons from the original Cold War, not least because we won.”
We convened a diverse group of national security professionals to provide policy recommendations for the Biden administration and Congress in the wake of the 2021 Afghanistan crisis.
Tablet Magazine
Bottom Line: The Biden administration may try to sell its upcoming Iran deal as a “return” to pre-Trump status quo, but it is anything but. The U.S. will lift sanctions on dozens of organizations and individuals responsible for terrorist violence against civilians, the Iranian people, and American service members in exchange for little in return.
The Dispatch
Bottom Line: While the world’s attention has been focused on Ukraine, the Biden administration’s negotiators have been hard at work making dramatic concessions to Iran in ongoing nuclear negotiations—with the help of Russia, no less!