The Vandenberg Coalition brings you reports and research from critical regions around the globe.
USNI Proceedings
Bottom Line: In the age of nuclear weapons, we are primed to think of mutual deterrence as a guarantee against great power war. But history is replete with examples of great powers fighting near-total wars below the existential level.
Hudson Institute
Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted numerous calls to “sanction the oligarchs” and “seize Putin’s wealth”. But the complex, kleptocratic governance structure of Russia means that this is not as straightforward a task as many in the West assume.
Substack
Bottom Line: Russian front lines are stagnating and time is not on Moscow’s side. In a long war the ability to feed the war machine over time becomes paramount. The Kremlin should fear protracted fighting against a Ukrainian force supplied by the U.S. and Europe.
Atlantic Council
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not shaping up to be the quick and easy strike he had hoped. However, whether by a miraculous Ukrainian victory, a protracted Russian quagmire, partition, or escalation, like all wars this conflict will one day end.
China is in an awkward position, as evidenced by its abstention from the UN Security Council vote condemning Russia’s invasion. Although Beijing and Moscow enjoy close ties, respecting territorial integrity is a core pillar of Chinese foreign policy.
Bradley Bowman, Ryan Probst, & Anthony Ruggiero
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
February 25, 2022
Bottom Line: In 1994, Ukraine gave up its ex-Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity from the U.S., UK, and Russia. Russia’s invasion may cause other states to decide they need nuclear weapons to guarantee their sovereignty.
Adam Tooze
Substack
February 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Economic sanctions imposed on Russia last week are already having an effect at market open Monday. Most devastating of all: the threat to freeze Russia’s Central Bank out of European financial networks.
Susan Crabtree
RealClear Politics
February 28, 2022
Bottom Line: Oil & gas exports are Russia’s economic lifeblood, but they are conspicuously untouched by the Biden administration’s sanctions package against Moscow. Ramping up energy production at home could crater the Kremlin’s revenue to wage war, but at the expense of the President’s climate agenda.
Forum for American Leadership
February 27, 2022
Bottom Line: Responsibility for this war lies with Putin alone, but the Biden administration’s vacillation towards Russia made conflict more likely. Now is the time for the President to take decisive action to deter further aggression.
TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen
The Dispatch
February 26, 2022
Bottom Line: The United States can and should aid the Ukrainian war effort by taking offensive cyber action against Russian-aligned non-state cyber actors, providing a flow of weapons and battlefield intelligence to Kyiv, and dialing sanctions up to “11.”
Rhonda Bletner
Galion Inquirer
February 26, 2022
Bottom Line: From higher gas prices at the pump to disrupted supply chains and diverted European investment in the United States, Ohio native and TVC Advisory Board member Rebeccah Heinrichs details how Americans will feel the effects of Putin’s aggression here at home.
Richard Fontaine
The Atlantic
March 1, 2022
Bottom Line: The post-Cold War era may have just ended overnight. Mere days ago, Russia was viewed in Washington and European capitals as a “sullen and revisionist power.” Today, Western leaders understand Moscow presents a clear and present danger.
TVC Advisory Board Members Michael J. Green and Gabriel Scheinmann
Foreign Policy
February 17, 2022
Bottom Line: Competition with China can only be approached as part of a comprehensive global strategy, not a regional “Asia first” formulation. Washington cannot effectively resist China in the east by ignoring Ukraine in the west.
TVC Advisory Board Member Seth G. Jones (with Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)
CSIS Briefs
February 18, 2022
Bottom Line: The U.S. and Europe should be prepared to wage a sustained diplomatic, economic, military aid, and humanitarian campaign to assist Ukraine and raise the price for Russia of invasion.
TVC Advisory Board Member David J. Kramer (with Ian Kelly)
The Bulwark
February 22, 2022
Bottom Line: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is only part of a larger strategy to keep Russia’s neighbors aligned with Moscow rather than looking towards the West.
TVC Board Member Eric Edelman
The Dispatch
February 21, 2022
Bottom Line: The Biden administration has played a weak hand well by routinely making select intelligence about Russian invasion preparations public, however, this policy still entails risks and leaves much to be desired.
Kenneth R. Rosen
POLITICO
February 15, 2022
Bottom Line: Russia has been engaged in a protracted cyber- and psychological-warfare campaign targeting Ukrainian service members as preparation for an invasion.
Illia Ponomarenko
Kyiv Independent
February 15, 2022
Bottom Line: After eight years of proxy war, the Ukrainian military and people are more ready to defend their country now than they were when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. If the nation is willing to fight, no fate is predestined.
Dave Lawler
Axios
February 22, 2022
Bottom Line: The situation on the ground in Ukraine will be shaped by multiple decisions in the next few days, including whether and how Russian forces move beyond separatist-controlled portions of the Donbas.
TVC Advisory Board Member Fred Kagan (with Mason Clark)
AEI Critical Threats Project
February 21, 2022
Bottom Line: Russian troops will move to seize Ukrainian territory in the coming days supported by a sustained air and missile campaign against unoccupied Ukraine. The Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics recognized as independent by Putin extend far beyond territory currently under the control of separatist forces.
Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has ignited a needless war and returned the horrifying reality of authoritarian aggression to the European continent. Unless far heavier costs are imposed, the world will see more such murderous assaults-by Putin and others-in Asia as well as in Euroре.
We urge the board members of the Amnesty International to condemn the recent anti-Semitic report published by their organization.
Katherine Doyle
Washington Examiner
February 13, 2022
Bottom Line: Failure to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran would be a major blow to the Biden administration’s foreign policy aims. The President’s negotiating team is coming under intense scrutiny from members of his own party on Capitol Hill.
TVC Advisory Board Member Stephen Rademaker
Al-Monitor
February 8, 2022
Bottom Line: Any nuclear deal with Iran must by law be submitted to Congress for review. Based on bipartisan sentiment in both chambers, only an agreement that enacts meaningful, long-term nuclear restrictions is likely to pass congressional muster.
Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
February 9, 2022
Bottom Line: Long-term U.S. success in great power competition depends on securing critical supply chains. For decades, however, China has been maneuvering to control the world’s supply of rare earth elements essential to producing high-end electronics.
Josh Rogin
Washington Post
February 9, 2022
Bottom Line: George Washington University’s administration found itself under pressure from CCP-backed student protesters over artwork by a Chinese exile displayed on campus. Led by groups like the Athenai Institute, many universities are realizing the importance of divesting from state-backed Chinese companies complicit in Uyghur genocide and PLA military modernization.
Anne Applebaum
The Atlantic
February 12, 2022
Bottom Line: Western diplomats fundamentally misapprehend Russian leaders’ priorities when they emphasize dialogue, diplomacy, and reputation in negotiations. In truth, Foreign Minister Lavrov and his officials respect strength and consequences.
TVC Advisory Board Member Gabe Scheinmann
The Wall Street Journal
February 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Contrary to popular belief, a new Cold War with China makes direct military confrontation between the U.S. and the PRC less—not more—likely. Moreover, a Cold War would be an eminently winnable struggle for the U.S. and its allies.
TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen
The Dispatch
February 10, 2022
Bottom Line: Arguments for restraint advanced in a recent NYT article by self-proclaimed national conservatives are worth taking seriously, but on sober reflection they are neither novel nor particularly compelling and rely heavily on a strawman characterization of policymakers as a monolithic, hawkish blob.
Susan Crabtree
RealClear Politics
February 16, 2022
RCP provides a detailed account of the Vandenberg Coalition’s Afghanistan Working Group and how our experts joined forces to ensure the United States could address the full security consequences of the crisis.
Kai von Carnap
RealClear Defense
February 7, 2022
Bottom Line: CCP senior leadership devote significant time to learning about new technologies in a formal setting in order to better bend them to the Party’s will. Chinese efforts to standardize emerging technologies should be viewed with caution in this light.
Demetri Sevastopulo, Christopher Grimes, Sara Germano, and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson
Financial Times
February 3, 2022
Bottom Line: Multinational corporations sponsoring the 2022 Olympics are staying silent on the issue of Uyghur genocide and hope they can avoid getting caught in the cross-hairs of the heightening political disputes between Washington and Beijing.
Connor Pfeiffer
Providence Magazine
February 1, 2022
Bottom Line: Like Belgium, Taiwan is a small country occupying an exposed, strategic position. The history of London’s 19th century security commitments to the former indicate that strategic clarity backed by diplomacy and strong military capabilities is essential if Washington is to successfully deter a Chinese invasion of the latter.
Rich Lowry
POLITICO
February 3, 2022
Bottom Line: While an increasingly influential faction on the right argues that we have no business defending Ukraine, the country should still matter to conservatives enough to deter Putin and impose costs on his regime if he invades.
TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams
National Review
February 2, 2022
Bottom Line: Amnesty International’s latest report is laced with spurious claims and invective against Israel, echoing language from the Soviet playbook and holding Israel to standards expected of no other state.
Robert Zubrin
National Review
January 28, 2022
Bottom Line: German dependence on Russian natural gas finances Putin’s military adventures—and prevents Berlin from standing up to Moscow’s bullying. That dependence is entirely the responsibility of the country’s short-sighted green movement, which shuttered German nuclear plants and made the country more dependent on carbon fuels.
Jamie McIntyre
Washington Examiner
January 28, 2022
Bottom Line: The Pentagon is happy to talk about the dollar-value of the military equipment it is sending to Ukraine, but has not been supplying Kyiv with the surface-to-air missiles critical to repelling a Russian attack.
TVC Advisory Board Member Fred Kagan (et al.)
Institute for the Study of War
January 27, 2022
Bottom Line: An invasion of Ukraine would advance Putin’s goal of regaining control over the country while simultaneously undermining Moscow’s objective of fracturing the unity of the NATO alliance.
Craig Singleton
Foreign Policy
January 28, 2022
Bottom Line: The Chinese president has been hunkered down in Beijing for the past 700 days. While he may appear to be focused on the COVID pandemic, the safer bet is that Xi’s reclusiveness is due to growing fears of a challenge to his power from within the CCP.