Projects & Events

A Running Start: An Economic Strategy for Victory over the CCP

The Vandenberg Coalition partnered with the China Economic & Strategy Initiative (CESI) in the public launch of their remarkable new report, “Defeating the CCP: A Running Start.” In this conversation CESI Commissioners Randy Schriver, Dan Blumenthal, Nazak Nikakhtar, and Peter Berkowitz, moderated by Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) Michael Sobolik, discuss their new report and why now is the time the president must lead America in the development and execution of an economic strategy to address the growing threat from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)…

2024 Poll Results

The Vandenberg Coalition worked with J.L. Partners to survey 1,400 likely voters—including an oversampling of 400 undecided voters—in swing states following the second presidential debate from September 13–26. Our poll measured voters’ views of how former President Trump and Vice President Harris would handle foreign policy challenges if elected…

Taking the Iran Threat Seriously: Policy Options for Congress to Hold the Islamic Republic Accountable

America finds itself at a critical juncture. Iran’s regime continues to threaten the security of the United States and our allies, yet America’s current policies only encourage further aggression by Tehran. In its 45 years in power, Iran’s leadership has funded terrorist groups including Hamas and Hezbollah, brutalized its own people, taken Americans hostage, and plotted to assassinate Americans on U.S. soil. The Vandenberg Coalition and FDD Action partner together…

A Weapon Against the West: Antisemitism and its anti-American Objectives

On July 22, 2024, The Vandenberg Coalition convened leading experts to highlight the relationship between anti-Americanism and antisemitism, showing how the toxic spread of antisemitism is part of a larger effort—spurred on by America’s adversaries—to undermine U.S. national security interests and values, sow distrust among our citizens, and ultimately chip away at the very foundation of the United States.

Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power

Vandenberg is joined by authors Richard Fontaine and Robert Blackwill to discuss their new book, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power moderated by Vandenberg Director of Strategic Partnerships Sydney Novak.

Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance

Vandenberg is joined by author Michael Sobolik to discuss his new book, Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance.

We Win They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War

Vandenberg is joined by authors Dan Negrea & Matthew Kroenig to discuss their new book, We Win, They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War.

American Crossroads: National Security and Foreign Policy in 2024 Election

On November 9, 2023, The Vandenberg Coalition, the nation’s premier American foreign policy advocacy organization, and The Jesse Helms Center, the country’s leading advocate of free enterprise and U.S. Constitutional principles hosted a panel on national security and foreign policy in 2024 election.

2024 Summer Intern Applications Now Open!

The Vandenberg Coalition is seeking two PAID interns for summer 2023. Apply today!

Ukraine

Statement from Conservative Leaders in Support of Ukraine Aid

Conservative Leaders Call for Additional Military Aid to Ukraine
October 4, 2023 —The Vandenberg Coalition, a network of conservative national security professionals that promotes a strong and proud American foreign policy, released a public letter signed by over 100 leading conservatives urging Congressional Republicans to increase support for Ukraine.

Event

Conservative Foreign Policy Series: Senator Joni Ernst

Foreign Policy is continuing to drastically impact the everyday lives of American citizens. From Chinese purchases of American land, to balloons surveilling our country, to the deadly fentanyl epidemic, the connection between what is happening abroad and what is happening here at home is clearer than ever. And yet, the last few years have seen America’s dramatic retreat from the world stage and put America’s credibility at stake. Join Senator Joni Ernst and Vandenberg’s Executive Director, Carrie Filipetti for a discussion on these issues, and the Senator’s vision of a stronger, prouder American foreign policy.

Event

The Decisive Decade: American Grand Strategy to Triumph Over China

What kind of grand strategy should the United States pursue to prevail in long term competition with China? What moves does Washington need to make today to set us up to win over the long term?

Upcoming Book Talk: The Decisive Decade

Join us Thursday, May 4th at 3:00 PM for a virtual discussion with author Jonathan Ward about his new book, The Decisive Decade: American Grand Strategy for Triumph Over China

Event

Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America

How should the United States compete against China and its other adversaries? How can domestic renewal of American institutions empower the U.S. to succeed abroad?

Upcoming Book Talk: Superpower in Peril

Join us Thursday April 6th at 3:00 PM for a virtual discussion with former U.S. Senate candidate David H. McCormick to discuss his new book, Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America

Press Release: The Vandenberg Coalition’s National Security Media Fellowship

The Vandenberg Coalition Press Release As part of our mission to promote a strong and proud U.S. foreign policy and to develop future leaders, we launched our inaugural National Security Media Fellowship from Tuesday, February 28 to Thursday, March 2, 2023. The purpose of the fellowship is to identify emerging leaders in American journalism and provide strong policy ideas and resources for them over the course of their careers. Both national security leaders and the press share a commitment to advancing American values. It is critical that we remove any obstacles in the way of strong relationships between both groups, given

Event

The American Imperative: Reclaiming Leadership Through Soft Power

What should our global strategy look like in an age of renewed great power competition? And what must America offer to a newly empowered developing world when we’re no longer the only major player?

Upcoming Book Talk: The American Imperative

Join us Monday February 13th at 4:00 PM for a virtual discussion with Vandenberg advisory board member Daniel F. Runde on his new book, The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power.

Future of Conservative Foreign Policy

Future of Conservative Foreign Policy with Senator Tom Cotton

The Vandenberg Coalition kicked off Season Two of its Future of Conservative Foreign Policy Series with a conversation with U.S. Senator Tom Cotton to discuss his vision for American foreign policy & national security, what he expects from the incoming 118th Congress, his new book ‘Only the Strong’, and more.

Newsletter

Beyond the Water’s Edge Special Edition: Biden’s NSS | October 19, 2022

What Grade Does Biden’s National Security Strategy Get? | Biden’s Rather Rhetorical National Strategy | Why Biden’s National Security Strategy is Destined to Fail | Biden’s New National Security Strategy: A Lot of Trump, Very Little Obama | In U.S. Security Strategy, China ‘Only Competitor’, India Key Partner | Towards a Biden Doctrine: U.S. National Interest or Global Commitment

Newsletter

Beyond the Water’s Edge October 12, 2022

Troubled Bridge Over Stolen Waters | Who Will Control the Black Sea? | The West Should Welcome the Middle Corridor | Death, Corruption, and Despair: The Darien Hell that Thousands of Venezuelans Cross Every Day to Reach the U.S. | Offshore Balancing: The British Analogy

Newsletter

Beyond the Water’s Edge October 5, 2022

The Women Burning Hijabs Want the Iranian Regime to Fall. Does Joe Biden? | How Iran’s Protests Differ from Past Movements | On Ukraine | Why Arming America’s Allies is America’s Smartest, Safest Strategy | The American Public Thinks It’s Time to End China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations Status | Why Beijing is Allegedly Opening Police Stations on Canadian Soil

A Conservative Consensus on Key Principles of Trade and Investment

The Vandenberg Coalition hosted a panel discussion on the future of conservative trade and investment policy featuring former members of the National Economic Council, National Security Council, and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Ukraine

What’s Missing From Mearsheimer’s Analysis of Ukraine War

Joe Cirincione | Russia Matters | July 29, 2022 Bottom Line: Prominent critics who argue that NATO expansion provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignore Moscow’s own statements of intent, minimize the criminal brutality of Russia’s actions, and deny the agency of both Russia and the allies who chose to join NATO for protection from Moscow’s predation.

Europe

Germany Has Only Itself to Blame

TVC Advisory Board Member James Kirchick | Washington Post | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: Moscow is restricting energy sales to Europe—and in particular Germany—to limit its support to Ukraine. Between the decision to phase out nuclear power and its blind loyalty to the NordStream program, Berlin has only itself to blame as the price of energy skyrockets.

Defense Budget

Is the Pentagon at Risk of Running Out of Weapons?

Maj. Gen. John Ferrari (U.S. Army, ret.) | The Dispatch | July 27, 2022 Bottom Line: The American defense industrial base is in steep decline, calling into question our ability prevail in a long war against a capable adversary. The decline of U.S. manufacturing, dearth of STEM talent, high regulatory burden, and the uncertainty of Congressional appropriations have atrophied a once vital U.S. strategic asset.

Iran

Tehran, the Day After

TVC Advisory Board Members Reuel Marc Gerecht & Ray Takeyh | National Review | July 28, 2022 Bottom Line: A military strike on Iran’s nuclear program would be designed to eliminate the regime’s capacity to build a bomb; however, if successful it could also undermine the legitimacy of the Khamenei regime and spark a revolt from the Iranian people.

Iran

Here’s How Biden’s Attempts to Resurrect the Iran Deal is Sabotaging His Middle East Agenda

Michaela Burrow | The Daily Caller | August 1, 2022 Bottom Line: The Biden Administration’s insistence on resurrecting the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is working at cross purposes with the President’s larger agenda in the Middle East to promote economic and security cooperation between America’s allies.

Technology

CHIPS Act Won’t Help China

Oren Cass | The American Conservative | July 27, 2022 Bottom Line: Opponents of the CHIPS Act who erroneously claim that the legislation would subsidize semiconductor production in China make the perfect the enemy of the good and twist the facts of the bill to score their own political points.

China and Defense

China is No. 1 Domestic National Security Threat and the Biden Administration Won’t Admit It

Michael Ellis | Fox News | July 29, 2022 Bottom Line: From industrial espionage to influence operations targeting state and local politicians, the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party is as much a problem of domestic security as it is foreign policy. Nevertheless, the Biden administration has seen fit to cancel programs designed to thwart CCP activities inside the country.

Taiwan

Chinese Leaders Know They Have No Claim to Taiwan

Michael Rubin | National Interest | July 29, 2022 Bottom Line: Despite belligerent rhetoric from Beijing this week in response to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, the PRC’s claim to the island is baseless. PRC leaders as far back as Mao recognized Taiwan as politically distinct from the mainland.

Taiwan

China Warns of ‘Serious Consequences’ if Pelosi Visits Taiwan

Eryk Bagshaw | Sydney Morning Herald | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: America’s allies in the Pacific reiterate the importance of maintaining solidarity among the free peoples of the world as Beijing rattles its saber over U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan next month.

China and Economics

How China’s Solar Domination Challenges the World

TVC Advisory Board Members Keith Krach & Kelley E. Currie | Triple Pundit | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: While Western governments and companies continue to double down on solar and other renewable energy sources, the inconvenient truth remains that China has cornered the market on solar technology, much of which is manufactured using Uyghur slave labor in coal-powered factories in the Xinjiang region.

American Politics

America’s Schools Are Creating a National Security Crisis

Garrett Exner | Washington Examiner | July 22, 2022 Bottom Line: As a new cohort of youth reach the prime age to enter the military, the Pentagon is facing a recruiting crisis. Schools have created a generation of Americans who fear the intellectual, physical, and emotional adversity required by military service.

Defense Budget

The Pentagon Gets the Better Part of a Trillion Dollars a Year. Why Isn’t That Enough?

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen | Defense News | July 26, 2022 Bottom Line: The vast majority of Pentagon spending is on autopilot, with only 10 to 15 percent shifting to address changing strategic priorities year over year. Many of America’s defense woes can be attributed to the tangle of bureaucratic barnacles that have built up on the Pentagon budgeting process over the decades.

Defense Budget

Inside the Pentagon Slugfest Over the Future of the Fleet

Lara Seligman, Lee Hudson, & Paul McLeary | Politico | July 24, 2022 Bottom Line: The relationship between the Secretary of the Navy, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and other senior DOD officials is marked by deep disagreements over the correct size and shape of the Navy’s future fleet, limiting the Pentagon’s ability to invest in the ships and infrastructure necessary to counter Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific.

American Politics

American Withdrawal Is America Last

TVC Advisory Board Member Rebeccah Heinrichs | Providence Magazine | July 22, 2022 Bottom Line: The intellectual backers of the ‘New Right’ pushing for America to retreat from the world stage loudly claim the mantle of ‘realism’, but in reality their arguments are nearly indistinguishable from those of the ‘Blame America First’ leftists of the Cold War.

South Asia

Sri Lanka’s President Resigns in the Face of Massive Protests

The Economist | July 9, 2022

Bottom Line: Skyrocketing food & energy prices have driven tens of thousands of protesters into the streets of Colombo. The President, Prime Minister, and multiple cabinet members have resigned or fled the capital. Sri Lanka may be a harbinger of things to come in other countries if the cost of living continues to become less and less affordable.

Technology

Ban TikTok Now

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen | The Dispatch | July 7, 2022

Bottom Line: Recent reporting reveals that when it comes to TikTok’s data on American users—including children—the Chinese government “has access to everything.” The time has come to dispense with excuses—the federal government must ban the app in the U.S.

Iran

Are American Concessions Funding Iran’s Quest to Rebuild Its Air Force?

Michael Rubin | 1945 | July 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s air force has grown increasingly outdated and under-equipped. Now, however, Tehran may be using the Biden administration’s peace talks & sanctions relief to acquire the resources to recapitalize its aircraft fleet.

Middle East

Will Biden Seize His Middle East Moment?

TVC Advisory Board Member John Hannah | Jewish Institute for the National Security of America | July 11, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite the Biden administration’s earlier attempts to appease Iran and chastise Saudi Arabia, the President’s upcoming trip to the Middle East offers a unique opportunity to bolster regional security cooperation by Israel and its Arab neighbors.

American Politics

Americans’ Preparedness to Pay a Price for Supporting Ukraine Remains Robust

Shibley Telhami | Brookings Institution | July 5, 2022

Bottom Line: Recent polling shows that a strong majority of Americans want the United States government to continue supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion—even if it means higher energy prices and inflation here at home.

Democracy

Fighting Back: How Democracies Can Check Authoritarian Aggression

TVC Advisory Board Members Dan Twining & Patrick Quirk | National Interest | July 11, 2022

Bottom Line: As Beijing and Moscow deepen their authoritarian partnership, the U.S. and its allies must think thoroughly about how to deploy their moral, legal, and financial resources as part of a larger campaign to help democracies resist authoritarian influence.

Indo-Pacific

South Korea Ventures Into Its Indo-Pacific Strategy

Seungjoo Lee | East Asia Forum | July 11, 2022

Bottom Line: In contrast to his predecessor—who strove to balance Chinese economic integration and the U.S.-ROK security relationship—South Korea’s new president is working to deepen his country’s economic ties with America & its allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Indo-Pacific

Shinzo Abe Invented the ‘Indo-Pacific’

TVC Board Member Matt Pottinger | Wall Street Journal | July 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe—who was assassinated at a campaign rally last week—died knowing that his signature geopolitical vision for a “free & open Indo-Pacific” has been embraced by Japan’s friends across the region and beyond.

NATO

Turkey and the War In Ukraine: An Opportunity to Unify NATO’s Southern Flank

Neil Bultman | Small Wars Journal | June 30, 2022

Bottom Line: As Russia becomes a more unstable actor and Turkey explores new energy sources and markets for its agricultural products, the war in Ukraine could serve as the catalyst for rapprochement between Ankara, its NATO allies, and the European Union.

NATO

Why Sweden And Finland Joining NATO Makes Perfect Sense

TVC Advisory Board Member James Jay Carafano | 19FortyFive | June 30, 2022

Bottom Line: The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO would bolster the defense of the alliance’s northern members. With the appetite for Nordic neutrality fast diminishing, alliance membership for Sweden and Finland is a rare win-win decision for all involved.

NATO

Don’t Let Russia Dominate the Strategic Concept

Jordan Becker, Douglas Lute, & Simon Smith | War on the Rocks | June 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Although the war in Ukraine took center stage at NATO’s summit in Madrid last week, U.S. focus on Russian aggression cannot come at the exclusion of the persistent national security threat posed by China, which is likely to be a rival for decades.

NATO

NATO Finds Old Purpose in Russia, New One in China

Mailys Pene-Lassus | Nikkei Asia | July 1, 2022

Bottom Line: War in Europe has renewed NATO’s purpose as the bulwark against Russian aggression, but for the first time, the alliance has also turned its attention to the Indo-Pacific and the “systemic challenges” posed by the People’s Republic of China.

NATO

Russia and NATO: How Did We Get Here and How Should We Respond?

Robert Pszczel | Royal United Services Institute | June 29, 2022

Bottom Line: Contra the narrative that NATO has provoked Russian aggression, the alliance has prioritized conflict prevention for decades. NATO must view Russia’s war on Ukraine with clear eyes and commit to a policy of military containment of aggression.

Cybersecurity

Iran’s Steel Industry Halted by Cyber Attack

Yonah Jeremy Bob | The Jerusalem Post | June 27, 2022

Bottom Line: The operations of one of Iran’s largest steel companies have ground to a halt following a cyber attack launched by the hacktivist group Predatory Sparrow in retaliation against “Tehran’s terrorist regime.”

India

Concerns Grow That India is ‘Back Door’ Into Europe for Russian Oil

Alex Lawson | The Guardian | June 26, 2022

Bottom Line: As European countries swear off Russian “blood oil,” Indian refineries continue to launder Moscow’s product onto the international market. Ukraine’s president argues that European companies using this oil are complicit in Moscow’s war crimes.

China and Economics

Xi Rallies BRICS Against Sanctions ‘Abuse,’ Cold War Mentality

CK Tan | Nikkei Asia | June 23, 2022

Bottom Line: At a recent summit, the Chinese president attempted to dissuade the rising “BRICS” countries from aligning themselves with Western “hegemony” and deployed practiced rhetoric to shield Moscow from responsibility for its crimes in Ukraine.

China and Economics

Now is the Time to Expose Chinese Corruption

TVC Advisory Board Member Nate Sibley | The Wall Street Journal | June 26, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite Xi’s vaunted anti-corruption campaign, the CCP continues to operate as a kleptocratic regime. The West can erode the party’s domestic legitimacy and international influence by drawing attention to corruption emanating from Beijing.

Defense

The Other Big Lessons That the U.S. Army Should Learn From Ukraine

David Barno & Nora Bensahel | War on the Rocks | June 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers the U.S. military a valuable case study into the changing character of contemporary warfare. However, the Army in particular needs to draw the right lessons from this conflict in order to best prepare for the future.

Europe

Germany’s New Resolve on Russia is Already Flagging

Peter Rough | Foreign Policy | June 16, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite initial pledges of support for the defense of Ukraine, Germany’s government does not appear to view Moscow as a major threat. Berlin continues to slow-roll military aid and may yet walk back its promised investment in NATO defenses.

Defense Budget

The U.S. Military Needs An On-Time Defense Budget

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen | 19FortyFive | June 23, 2022

Bottom Line: With inflation on the rise, Congress plans to supplement the Biden administration’s FY23 defense budget request. However, a delay in passing the budget would wipe out any benefits of a top line funding increase, decimating military readiness.

Defense

The Navy Is Broken. Congress Must Launch a Commission to Find a Path Forward

Maj. Gen. John Ferrari (USA, ret.)

Breaking Defense

June 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Decades of poor management, failed modernization projects, and unsustainable shipbuilding programs have caused the Navy to fall into disrepair. Congress must create an independent commission like those applied to the post-Vietnam “hollow” U.S. Army to chart a new course for the Navy in the twenty-first century.

Central America

Nicaragua Opens the Door for Russian Troops to Land in Central America

MercoPress

June 10, 2022

Bottom Line: President Ortega has invited Russian forces to enter Nicaragua and join in training exercises and policing missions alongside the country’s military. Russian media has celebrated the opportunity to deploy troops in the United States’ backyard.

Central America

The Geopolitics of Honduras’s Special Economic Zones

Ryan C. Berg & Evan Ellis

CSIS

June 9, 2022

Bottom Line: China has worked to develop exploitive economic ties to multiple Central American countries. Investing in existing Honduran economic institutions offers the U.S. an opportunity to counter PRC influence in the region.

Iran

Bad News for Biden: Congress Cooling on Idea of an Iran Deal

TVC Advisory Board Member Danielle Pletka

The Dispatch

June 9, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration continues to pursue a renewal of the Iran nuclear deal; however, with midterm elections looming the incentives for both the U.S. Congress and Tehran to accede to a new agreement are fast diminishing.

Food Crisis

War in Ukraine Is Destabilizing the Middle East and North Africa

Saeed Ghasseminejad

National Interest

June 13, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s war has stalled grain exports which feed tens of millions of people across the Middle East & North Africa. Domestic unrest in countries including Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran will continue to grow as long as food remains scarce and expensive.

Indo-Pacific

The Ukraine War and the New Meaning of Security Guarantees for the Indo-Pacific

John Raine

IISS

June 8, 2022

Bottom Line: As Russia’s war on Ukraine challenges the security of Europe, the West’s response hints at how future security guarantees may operate in the Indo-Pacific, with emphasis on economic, diplomatic, and technological leverage over sheer military mass.

Food Crisis

Russia’s War Exacerbates Global Food Crisis

Bottom Line Up Front: ● Russia’s war of aggression has nearly halted grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, destabilizing a fragile world food market already stressed by the pandemic and recent droughts. ● Prices of grain and other staple crops are up 50 percent on world markets, which the UN estimates could drive hundreds of millions into food insecurity and provoke famine in the developing world. ● Food instability will continue to drive up costs for Americans here at home and could destabilize countries in the developing world, exacerbating the risk of conflict and terrorism. Read the Full Document

Iran

How the Pro-Iran Lobby Became the Russia Appeasement Lobby

Seth J. Frantzman

The Jerusalem Post

May 9, 2022

Bottom Line: The voices who insisted that the United States needed to strike a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons at any price are now arguing Washington cannot aid Ukraine for risk of war with Russia. The underlying sentiment is the same: appease brutal dictators.

Ukraine

Ukraine as the New Martyr Nation

Mark Tooley

Providence Magazine

May 5, 2022

Bottom Line: Poland was brutalized by Nazis and Soviets alike in the 20th century but emerged victorious and independent by century’s end. Like Poland before it, Ukraine has found the strength to defend itself and inspires others to resist aggression.

American Politics

‘Pretty Gross’: How a Network of Retired Lawmakers Boosts CCP Influence in Washington

Chuck Ross

The Washington Free Beacon

May 6, 2022

Bottom Line: As organizations inside the Beltway and across America work to cut ties with China, the Association of Former Members of Congress remains deeply enmeshed with a known CCP United Front organization working to influence U.S. opinion & policy.

Indo-Pacific

Australia’s Thin Red Line on China in the Solomons

Richard Herr

Australian Strategic Policy Institute

May 5, 2022

Bottom Line: China’s recent security pact with the nearby Solomon Islands has become a campaign issue in Australia’s upcoming federal elections, with Prime Minister Morrison vowing to take action if China builds naval bases in the archipelago.

Democracy

Putin and Xi Are Accelerating Their Push Against Democracy. Here’s How the U.S. Can Fight Back.

TVC Advisory Board Member Patrick Quirk with David O. Shullman

The Atlantic Council

May 6, 2022

Bottom Line: The leaders of both Russia and China believe the spread of democracy is a threat to their grip on power. Putin & Xi promote authoritarianism around the world in order to undermine American power and influence and bolster their own security.

NATO

What Would Finland Bring to the Table for NATO?

Heljä Ossa and Tommi Koivula

War On the Rocks

May 9, 2022

Bottom Line: Two Finnish defense researchers argue that if Finland applies for NATO membership this month, the Nordic republic would punch well above its weight militarily. Finland’s modern equipment, well-trained reserve corps, strong culture of self-defense, and history of staring down Russia would make it a valuable member of the alliance.

Iran

Foil the Financiers of Iran’s Terrorism

TVC Advisory Board Member Richard Goldberg

The Wall Street Journal

May 1, 2022

Bottom Line: Biden appears to have rejected Iran’s demand to remove the IRGC from the U.S. list for “foreign terrorist organizations.” The administration should go further and refuse to lift sanctions on the banks that finance the organization’s terror campaigns.

China and Economics

Present Your China Contingency Plan at Your Next Board Meeting

TVC Advisory Board Member Keith Krach

Fortune

April 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Board directors and company officers have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shown the risks of investing in authoritarian regimes. Companies must prepare now to insulate themselves from Xi Jinping & the CCP.

Religious Liberty

The Dark Side of AI

TVC Advisory Board Member Bonnie Glick & Kennedy Lee

Deseret News

April 27, 2022

Bottom Line: While artificial intelligence is often presented as a net-good for humanity, technology poses a grave risk to religious liberty. From China to Venezuela to Iran, governments are using AI to surveil, track, and oppress religious minorities.

Economics

Western Leaders Must Prepare the Public for a War Economy

Martin Sandbu

The Financial Times

May 1, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin has weaponized energy & food supplies in his war on Ukraine. Whether the West aids Ukraine or not, decisions made in Moscow will drive up prices for consumers here at home and around the world. That cannot stop us from aiding Kyiv.

Cybersecurity

Send Ukraine Cyber Help, Not Bureaucratic Gridlock

Michael Ellis & Dustin Carmack

RealClear Defense

April 26, 2022

Bottom Line: The NSC should remove the bureaucratic roadblocks preventing the Pentagon’s offensive cyber operators from giving Ukraine ready-made capabilities to disable and destroy Russian networks, just like we supply Ukraine with physical weapons.

Defense Budget

The U.S. Needs a New Approach to Producing Weapons. Just Look at Ukraine.

Thomas G. Mahnken

Defense News

April 26, 2022

Bottom Line: U.S. & allied support for Ukraine has revealed both the value of precision munitions on the modern battlefield and the fact that the Western defense industrial base is currently inadequate to provide a steady stream of advanced weapons to allied militaries during a high-intensity, protracted conflict with either China or Russia.

President Biden, Why is Your National Security Strategy Still Unavailable?

TVC Advisory Board Member Clifford D. May

The Washington Times

April 28, 2022

Bottom Line: After a year in office, why have we yet to see President Biden’s strategy for confronting America’s adversaries? Is the administration prepared to lead the free world against the tyrannical regimes of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea?

China

Open Letter to U.S. Public Universities on Uyghur Genocide

The Athenai Institute

April 26, 2022

Bottom Line: The Vandenberg Coalition is proud to sign the Athenai Institute’s open letter urging U.S. public universities to divest their endowments of and sever ties with PRC entities currently perpetrating genocide against the Uyghur people in Xinjiang Province.

Taiwan

Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Why America Must Ensure Taiwan is Included

Russell Hsiao
1945
April 21, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration has taken laudable steps to bring together market-based democratic states to confront the PRC. In the Indo-Pacific, the United States cannot afford to try to appease Beijing by leaving Taiwan out of multilateral initiatives.

Indo-Pacific

Growing Ambitions: On China-Solomon Islands Pact

The Hindu Editorial Board

April 22, 2022

Bottom Line: The PRC’s recently-sealed military & security pact with the Solomon Islands left American policymakers scrambling to catch up. The deal confirms Beijing’s intention to secure a strategic foothold astride the sea lines of communication between the U.S. and its major Indo-Pacific allies, opening a new front in the New Cold War.

Iran

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Must Be Dismantled, Not Delisted

TVC Advisory Board Member David Shedd

The National Interest

April 21, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration foolishly believes it can change Iranian regime’s behavior by returning to the 2015 nuclear deal. Revoking the IRGC’s terrorism designation would only serve to reward Tehran for its long track record of backing terrorist violence.

Ukraine

Russia is Set to Weaponize the Food Supply in Their Latest Assault on Ukraine

Maria Chapila

Independent Women’s Forum

April 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia is currently preventing all agricultural exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea. Tens of millions of people in dozens of countries dependent on Ukrainian grain for survival face the prospect of famine as long as the war continues.

Iran

How Joe Biden is Vetoing American Interests in the UN

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

April 25, 2022

Bottom Line: The U.S. veto over binding decisions by the United Nations protects American interests from being steamrolled by an anti-American majority. However, the Biden administration does not seem worried about the ongoing attempt by the General Assembly to seize review power over Security Council vetoes.

China

China’s Military-Business Fund Aims to Secure War Tech

Focus Taiwan

Bottom Line: Business & military institutions in the PRC have made significant investments in a venture capital fund aimed at securing access to high-end war technology and circumventing U.S.-led sanctions in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.

China

The West Must Not Let Xi Jinping Protect Putin and Give the CCP Another “Strategic Opportunity”

Providence Magazine

Bottom Line: Putin’s struggle to conquer Ukraine is likely to drive Russia and China closer together, not farther apart. The West cannot pretend that Xi will give up any of his geopolitical leverage over Russia nor that he has abandoned his plan to invade Taiwan.

Defense Budget

The Navy Owes Congress Independent Honesty, Not Joint Harmony

CIMSEC

Bottom Line: Generations of bureaucratic centralization have deprived the military services of independence in strategic planning and budget advocacy. As Biden’s FY23 budget proposes cutting the size of the fleet, the Navy needs to remember it owes Congress an independent professional assessment of its needs—not the executive branch party line.

Ukraine

The War at Sea: Naval Power Has Been the Ukraine War’s Most Underrated Element

RealClear Defense

Bottom Line: Last week, Ukrainian forces sunk the Russian cruiser Moskva—the largest warship lost to enemy action since WWII. The action highlights the fundamental naval dimension of the conflict as Putin seeks to seize control of the Black Sea coast.

Ukraine

Top Trump White House Staffers: We Want to Arm Ukraine to the Teeth—Why Won’t Biden Do It?

Western Journal

Bottom Line: Former senior Trump administration officials argue that ‘America First’ does not equate to ‘isolationism’. The U.S. can and should provide military aid to Ukrainians fighting for their independence while enhancing American strength at home.

Ukraine

Helping Ukraine Win Against Russia is a Vital NATO Interest

Wall Street Journal

Bottom Line: Ukraine shares the West’s aspiration for liberty that is based on fundamental human rights, not race or nationality. More than just holding the line against Russian invasion, it is in NATO’s interest for Ukraine to win this war.

Energy & Climate

America Needs to Win the Clean Energy Arms Race

RealClear Politics

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made clear the need to change how we think about the nexus between energy security & national security. We can only prevent American dependence on Russia and China by prioritizing short & medium term investments in American oil & gas and long term investments in clean energy.

China and Economics

Foreign Cash Flees China As Investors Shun Autocracies

Takeshi Kihara & Akira Inujima

Nikkei Asia

April 10, 2022

Bottom Line: China has seen “unprecedented” outflows of foreign capital since the beginning of 2022. Sanctions on Russia over Ukraine may be pushing investors to look at China in a new light and reevaluate the risk inherent in investing in autocratic regimes.

Economics

Balkanization is the Future of the Global Economy

Brad Glosserman

Japan Times

April 5, 2022

Bottom Line: On top of the U.S.-China trade war and COVID-19 economic dislocation, we are now seeing a flurry of sanctions and embargoes in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the time being, global economic integration may have crested.

Taiwan

A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: What Response Would Americans Support?

TVC Advisory Board Member Victoria Coates

1945

April 11, 2022

Bottom Line: If China invades Taiwan, there is broad support among the American people of all political persuasions for economic sanctions and military aid to help the island nation defend itself. Only six percent of Americans think we should to nothing.

China

Virginia’s Universities Should Not Support China’s Military

Craig Singleton

Washington Post

April 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Virginia’s public universities are involved in a myriad of programs that support the Chinese military and security services. They provide a snapshot of the work the PRC has done to co-opt American institutions of higher education for nefarious ends.

Iran

Iran’s Master Class in Evading Sanctions

TVC Advisory Board Member Mark Dubowitz and Matthew Zweig

Wall Street Journal

April 5, 2022

Bottom Line: Iran has evolved sophisticated measures to get around U.S. nuclear weapons & terrorism sanctions. U.S. policymakers need to learn from past mistakes if they want to stop Tehran from helping Moscow evade punishment for its invasion of Ukraine.

India

How Japan Can Help Nudge India Away from Russia

Ryosuke Hanada

The Lowy Institute Interpreter

April 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Following Japanese PM Kishida’s recent visit to New Delhi, India issued a statement slightly more critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its prior unilateral pronouncements, highlighting the value of the nascent “Quad” framework.

NATO

Finland, Rattled By Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, Thinks the Unthinkable—NATO Membership

TVC Advisory Board Member Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu

New York Sun

April 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Finland survived the Cold War through neutrality. Just a few short weeks ago, it seemed unthinkable that Finland would join NATO, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finnish public support for joining the alliance has skyrocketed to 60 percent.

Eurasia

The Cold War Never Ended

Stephen Kotkin

Foreign Affairs

April 10, 2022

Bottom Line: The end of the original Cold War was a mirage. Russia is plagued by the same geopolitical constraints and autocratic political system as it was during the Cold War, leading Putin to strike at Ukraine in the same manner as Soviet leaders before him.

Defense

Roadmap for a Stronger Defense Strategy

RealClear Defense

Bottom Line: We cannot afford to rely on alliances alone to keep the peace in Europe or Asia. The time has come to fashion a national security strategy that builds a military sufficient to defeat our primary adversary, China, while effectively deterring Russia & Iran.

Defense Budget

The $773 Billion Question: Inflation’s Impact on Defense Spending

March 28, 2022

Defense Budget

Inflation May Shrink Biden’s Big Defense Plan

Roll Call

Bottom Line: Biden’s defense budget is allegedly the largest of all time, but with record inflation, it has less buying power than last year’s. Uncontrolled inflation stands to further erode DOD’s ability to buy the products and services required for national defense.

Defense Budget

Inflation is the New Sequestration

Defense One

Bottom Line: Despite the Pentagon Comptroller’s claim that DOD will be less affected by inflation than the general economy, we know the opposite is true. Congress must use its authority to fully address the impacts of inflation on the FY23 defense budget.

Defense Budget

Are the Navy’s Plans for a 355-ship Fleet Dead?

Sandboxx

Bottom Line: Congress has mandated for years that the Navy grow to 355+ ships. Biden’s budget cuts the fleet to 280 and puts us on a path for the Chinese Navy to be double the size of America’s within a decade.

Defense Budget

We Chose Decline

Substack

Bottom Line: By cutting the size of the U.S. Navy, Biden’s FY23 defense budget doesn’t just ensure that China will replace us as the premier world power—it hands supremacy to the PRC on a silver platter.

Defense Budget

Biden’s Plan to Cut Navy Ships: Handing China Victory at Sea

The Hill

Bottom Line: Just as NATO weakness invited Russian aggression against Ukraine, Biden’s plans to cut the size of the Navy will galvanize Chinese aggression against our allies, partners, and interests in the Indo-Pacific.

Defense Budget

Biden’s Weak Defense Budget

March 31, 2022

Left Behind in Afghanistan

As the world rightly focuses on the war in Ukraine, it is critical that we
do not forget the crisis generated by America’s premature withdrawal
from Afghanistan. There are currently thousands of Afghan National Army
veterans who fought alongside U.S. troops being hunted by the Taliban on
a daily basis. At the same time, Afghanistan’s women and girls
continue to have their lives and livelihoods taken from them.

Economics

Fertiliser Inflation Presages A Global Food Supply Crisis

Rana Forodoohar

Financial Times

March 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Not only are Russia and Ukraine both top-five grain exporters, but Russia is the second largest producer of fertilizer in the world. Expect sharp rises in food prices and dislocation in global food markets for years to come.

India

Don’t Let Putin’s War in Ukraine Damage U.S.-India Ties

Jeff M. Smith

RealClear World

March 22, 2022

Bottom Line: American policymakers have been frustrated by New Delhi’s reluctance to take a hard line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the U.S. must see past this disagreement and continue to work with India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

Europe

Germany’s Progressives Have a Putin Problem

Aaron Gasch Burnett

The Spectator

March 27, 2022

Bottom Line: The ruling Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has a long history of cozy relations with Moscow. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has little choice but to quickly remedy his party’s biggest and most shameful mistake.

Ukraine

How Russia’s War on Ukraine Will Change the World

TVC Advisory Board Member John Hillen

National Review

March 26, 2022

Bottom Line: It is not yet clear how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will end now that Putin’s first strike has been blunted. However, from Beijing to Tehran to Washington, leaders are adjusting their approach to existing problems based on Moscow’s experience.

Cybersecurity

Shields Up! The Biden Administration Tells Industry to Prepare for Russian Cyber Attacks

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen

The Dispatch

March 24, 2022

Bottom Line: Ransomware and similar attacks by non-government hackers are the most likely threat against American infrastructure. Cyber attacks by Russian military or intelligence services would be a significant escalation that could not go unpunished.

Defense

Without Logistics Our Weapons ‘Become Paperweights’

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen

AEI Blog

March 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Unparalleled logistical capability has allowed the U.S. military to surge troops to NATO’s eastern front virtually overnight. However, we must invest now in peacetime to ensure we have the logistics networks we will need when crisis strikes.

Defense

Saint Javelin of Limited Supply

John Schaus

CSIS

March 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Supporting Ukraine has shown the precariousness of military manufacturing and the need to invest in greater capacity. Canada has run out of munitions to donate. The U.S. has sent half of the Javelin missiles it purchased over the past decade. This level of support is unsustainable in the long run without additional production.

Technology

Judge the CHIPs Act as Defense Policy, Not Industrial Policy

TVC Advisory Board Member Will Inboden (with Adam Klein)

The Hill

March 20, 2022

Bottom Line: Supply of high-end semiconductors is essential to U.S. qualitative military advantage. Those who criticize the CHIPs Act for distorting the market need to recognize that its aim is to help secure this critical supply chain for U.S. industry & the military.

Energy & Climate

How Blue State Policies Are Making America More Dependent on Hostile Foreign Oil

Isaac Schorr

National Review

March 21, 2022

Bottom Line: Led by California and New York, for years blue state governors have held up and cancelled new exploration, production, and pipelines that would mitigate American dependence on foreign oil and gas, driving up prices for working Americans in the process.

Defense

Three Critical Defense Reallocations for U.S. Strategic Competition with China

Harrison Bradon Morgan

Strategy Bridge

March 15, 2022

Bottom Line: To meet the challenge of great power competition, DoD must reallocate scarce resources. It can start by shrinking the Army to grow the fleet, re-deploying assets to the Indo-Pacific, and investing in cognitive—not just technological—capabilities.

Grand Strategy

The U.S. Needs a National Security Strategy

The Forum for American Leadership

March 18, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration is behind schedule releasing its National Security Strategy. The U.S. cannot afford to meet complex challenges like Ukraine without the overarching grand strategic guidance provided by the NSS.

Defense

The Ukraine Crisis Shows the Need for a Bigger Defense Budget

TVC Advisory Board Member Mackenzie Eaglen

The Dispatch

March 17, 2022

Bottom Line: To deter China and Russia, DoD needs predictable, flexible, and robust budgets. Congress must take the lead to end continuing destructive resolutions and ensure DoD’s budget grows above the rate of inflation.

Defense

Whither Hybrid War?

Seth Cropsey

RealClear Defense

March 15, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows us that the direct application of force still takes precedence over the much-vaunted strategy of “hybrid war” that analysts have long described as a game-changer for Russia on the battlefield.

Taiwan

Ukraine’s Lessons for Taiwan

Jeffrey W. Hornung

War on the Rocks

March 17, 2022

Bottom Line: Rather than treating a Chinese victory over Taiwan as inevitable, the example of Ukraine shows us that the U.S. and its allies should start reinforcing the island now to help Taipei defend itself against communist aggression.

Grand Strategy

Russia, China, and the New Cold War

Interview with TVC Board Member Matt Pottinger

Adam O’Neal

The Wall Street Journal

March 18, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine evokes stark parallels to the Korean War, which helped wake up the West to the treat posed by communism. “We would be remiss not to learn lessons from the original Cold War, not least because we won.”

Afghanistan

Vandenberg Afghanistan Report

We convened a diverse group of national security professionals to provide policy recommendations for the Biden administration and Congress in the wake of the 2021 Afghanistan crisis.

Iran

This Isn’t Obama’s Iran Deal. It’s Much, Much Worse

Tablet Magazine

Bottom Line: The Biden administration may try to sell its upcoming Iran deal as a “return” to pre-Trump status quo, but it is anything but. The U.S. will lift sanctions on dozens of organizations and individuals responsible for terrorist violence against civilians, the Iranian people, and American service members in exchange for little in return.

Iran

The Coming Surrender to Iran

The Dispatch

Bottom Line: While the world’s attention has been focused on Ukraine, the Biden administration’s negotiators have been hard at work making dramatic concessions to Iran in ongoing nuclear negotiations—with the help of Russia, no less!

Defense

‘Limited’ Wars Could Make a Bloody Return

USNI Proceedings

Bottom Line: In the age of nuclear weapons, we are primed to think of mutual deterrence as a guarantee against great power war. But history is replete with examples of great powers fighting near-total wars below the existential level.

Russia

Targeting Putin’s Kleptocracy: A Strategic Approach During Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Hudson Institute

Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted numerous calls to “sanction the oligarchs” and “seize Putin’s wealth”. But the complex, kleptocratic governance structure of Russia means that this is not as straightforward a task as many in the West assume.

Ukraine

Space and Time: With The Costs of War Mounting and His Army in Disarray Putin is Running Out of Options

Substack

Bottom Line: Russian front lines are stagnating and time is not on Moscow’s side. In a long war the ability to feed the war machine over time becomes paramount. The Kremlin should fear protracted fighting against a Ukrainian force supplied by the U.S. and Europe.

Ukraine

Four Ways the War in Ukraine Might End

Atlantic Council

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not shaping up to be the quick and easy strike he had hoped. However, whether by a miraculous Ukrainian victory, a protracted Russian quagmire, partition, or escalation, like all wars this conflict will one day end.

China

Why China Is Struggling to Deal with Russia’s War in Ukraine

Ian Johnson & Kathy Huang

Council on Foreign Relations

February 25, 2022

Bottom Line: China is in an awkward position, as evidenced by its abstention from the UN Security Council vote condemning Russia’s invasion. Although Beijing and Moscow enjoy close ties, respecting territorial integrity is a core pillar of Chinese foreign policy.

Arms Control

Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine May Supercharge Nuclear Proliferation

Bradley Bowman, Ryan Probst, & Anthony Ruggiero

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

February 25, 2022

Bottom Line: In 1994, Ukraine gave up its ex-Soviet nuclear weapons in exchange for a guarantee of territorial integrity from the U.S., UK, and Russia. Russia’s invasion may cause other states to decide they need nuclear weapons to guarantee their sovereignty.

Economics

Russia’s Financial Meltdown and the Global Dollar System

Adam Tooze

Substack

February 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Economic sanctions imposed on Russia last week are already having an effect at market open Monday. Most devastating of all: the threat to freeze Russia’s Central Bank out of European financial networks.

Energy & Climate

Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Scrambled Biden’s Green Agenda

Susan Crabtree

RealClear Politics

February 28, 2022

Bottom Line: Oil & gas exports are Russia’s economic lifeblood, but they are conspicuously untouched by the Biden administration’s sanctions package against Moscow. Ramping up energy production at home could crater the Kremlin’s revenue to wage war, but at the expense of the President’s climate agenda.

Ukraine

How to Respond to the Russian War of Aggression

Forum for American Leadership

February 27, 2022

Bottom Line: Responsibility for this war lies with Putin alone, but the Biden administration’s vacillation towards Russia made conflict more likely. Now is the time for the President to take decisive action to deter further aggression.

Ukraine

What Should the United States Do Now?

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen

The Dispatch

February 26, 2022

Bottom Line: The United States can and should aid the Ukrainian war effort by taking offensive cyber action against Russian-aligned non-state cyber actors, providing a flow of weapons and battlefield intelligence to Kyiv, and dialing sanctions up to “11.”

Ukraine

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine will Impact Ohioans

Rhonda Bletner

Galion Inquirer

February 26, 2022

Bottom Line: From higher gas prices at the pump to disrupted supply chains and diverted European investment in the United States, Ohio native and TVC Advisory Board member Rebeccah Heinrichs details how Americans will feel the effects of Putin’s aggression here at home.

Ukraine

The Long Weekend That Changed History

Richard Fontaine

The Atlantic

March 1, 2022

Bottom Line: The post-Cold War era may have just ended overnight. Mere days ago, Russia was viewed in Washington and European capitals as a “sullen and revisionist power.” Today, Western leaders understand Moscow presents a clear and present danger.

Ukraine

Even an ‘Asia First’ Strategy Needs to Deter Russia in Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Members Michael J. Green and Gabriel Scheinmann

Foreign Policy

February 17, 2022

Bottom Line: Competition with China can only be approached as part of a comprehensive global strategy, not a regional “Asia first” formulation. Washington cannot effectively resist China in the east by ignoring Ukraine in the west.

Ukraine

Russia’s Losing Hand in Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Member Seth G. Jones (with Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)

CSIS Briefs

February 18, 2022

Bottom Line: The U.S. and Europe should be prepared to wage a sustained diplomatic, economic, military aid, and humanitarian campaign to assist Ukraine and raise the price for Russia of invasion.

Ukraine

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Target of Putin’s Aggression

TVC Advisory Board Member David J. Kramer (with Ian Kelly)

The Bulwark

February 22, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is only part of a larger strategy to keep Russia’s neighbors aligned with Moscow rather than looking towards the West.

Ukraine

The Pros and Cons of ‘Deterrence by Disclosure’

TVC Board Member Eric Edelman

The Dispatch

February 21, 2022

Bottom Line: The Biden administration has played a weak hand well by routinely making select intelligence about Russian invasion preparations public, however, this policy still entails risks and leaves much to be desired.

Ukraine

‘Kill Your Commanding Officer’: On the Front Lines of Putin’s Digital War With Ukraine

Kenneth R. Rosen

POLITICO

February 15, 2022

Bottom Line: Russia has been engaged in a protracted cyber- and psychological-warfare campaign targeting Ukrainian service members as preparation for an invasion.

Ukraine

Even if Russia Attacks, Ukraine’s Fall is Not Predestined

Illia Ponomarenko

Kyiv Independent

February 15, 2022

Bottom Line: After eight years of proxy war, the Ukrainian military and people are more ready to defend their country now than they were when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. If the nation is willing to fight, no fate is predestined.

Ukraine

5 Key Questions That Could Determine The Shape of Russia’s Invasion

Dave Lawler

Axios

February 22, 2022

Bottom Line: The situation on the ground in Ukraine will be shaped by multiple decisions in the next few days, including whether and how Russian forces move beyond separatist-controlled portions of the Donbas.

Ukraine

Russia Likely to Pursue Phased Invasion of Unoccupied Ukrainian Territory

TVC Advisory Board Member Fred Kagan (with Mason Clark)

AEI Critical Threats Project

February 21, 2022

Bottom Line: Russian troops will move to seize Ukrainian territory in the coming days supported by a sustained air and missile campaign against unoccupied Ukraine. The Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics recognized as independent by Putin extend far beyond territory currently under the control of separatist forces.

Russia

Statement on the Russian War of Aggression Against Ukraine

Israel

Vandenberg Open Letter to Amnesty International

We urge the board members of the Amnesty International to condemn the recent anti-Semitic report published by their organization.

American Politics

Democrats Press Biden on Iran as Window for Deal Narrows

Katherine Doyle

Washington Examiner

February 13, 2022

Bottom Line: Failure to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran would be a major blow to the Biden administration’s foreign policy aims. The President’s negotiating team is coming under intense scrutiny from members of his own party on Capitol Hill.

Arms Control

Iran Nuclear Deal Will Be a Tough Sell in Congress

TVC Advisory Board Member Stephen Rademaker

Al-Monitor

February 8, 2022

Bottom Line: Any nuclear deal with Iran must by law be submitted to Congress for review. Based on bipartisan sentiment in both chambers, only an agreement that enacts meaningful, long-term nuclear restrictions is likely to pass congressional muster.

China and Economics

Elemental Strategy: Countering Chinese Communist Party Efforts to Dominate the Rare Earth Industry

Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

February 9, 2022

Bottom Line: Long-term U.S. success in great power competition depends on securing critical supply chains. For decades, however, China has been maneuvering to control the world’s supply of rare earth elements essential to producing high-end electronics.

China

Another University Learns the Hard Way About Chinese Censorship on Campus

Josh Rogin

Washington Post

February 9, 2022

Bottom Line: George Washington University’s administration found itself under pressure from CCP-backed student protesters over artwork by a Chinese exile displayed on campus. Led by groups like the Athenai Institute, many universities are realizing the importance of divesting from state-backed Chinese companies complicit in Uyghur genocide and PLA military modernization.

Russia

Why the West’s Diplomacy with Russia Keeps Failing

Anne Applebaum

The Atlantic

February 12, 2022

Bottom Line: Western diplomats fundamentally misapprehend Russian leaders’ priorities when they emphasize dialogue, diplomacy, and reputation in negotiations. In truth, Foreign Minister Lavrov and his officials respect strength and consequences.

Grand Strategy

The U.S. Should Want a Cold War with China

TVC Advisory Board Member Gabe Scheinmann

The Wall Street Journal

February 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Contrary to popular belief, a new Cold War with China makes direct military confrontation between the U.S. and the PRC less—not more—likely. Moreover, a Cold War would be an eminently winnable struggle for the U.S. and its allies.

American Politics

The Old—and Incoherent—Foreign Policy of the New Right

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen

The Dispatch

February 10, 2022

Bottom Line: Arguments for restraint advanced in a recent NYT article by self-proclaimed national conservatives are worth taking seriously, but on sober reflection they are neither novel nor particularly compelling and rely heavily on a strawman characterization of policymakers as a monolithic, hawkish blob.

Afghanistan

Experts Put Aside Differences to Offer Next Steps on Afghanistan

Susan Crabtree

RealClear Politics

February 16, 2022

RCP provides a detailed account of the Vandenberg Coalition’s Afghanistan Working Group and how our experts joined forces to ensure the United States could address the full security consequences of the crisis.

China and Defense

Xi Jinping and the CCP’s Expanding Technology Agenda

Kai von Carnap

RealClear Defense

February 7, 2022

Bottom Line: CCP senior leadership devote significant time to learning about new technologies in a formal setting in order to better bend them to the Party’s will. Chinese efforts to standardize emerging technologies should be viewed with caution in this light.

China

Beijing Olympics: The New Frontline in the U.S.-China Cold War

Demetri Sevastopulo, Christopher Grimes, Sara Germano, and Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson

Financial Times

February 3, 2022

Bottom Line: Multinational corporations sponsoring the 2022 Olympics are staying silent on the issue of Uyghur genocide and hope they can avoid getting caught in the cross-hairs of the heightening political disputes between Washington and Beijing.

Taiwan

The Lessons of Britain’s Commitment to Belgium for U.S. Policy on the Taiwan Strait

Connor Pfeiffer

Providence Magazine

February 1, 2022

Bottom Line: Like Belgium, Taiwan is a small country occupying an exposed, strategic position. The history of London’s 19th century security commitments to the former indicate that strategic clarity backed by diplomacy and strong military capabilities is essential if Washington is to successfully deter a Chinese invasion of the latter.

Russia

Why Conservatives Should Be Eager to Deter Putin on Ukraine

Rich Lowry

POLITICO

February 3, 2022

Bottom Line: While an increasingly influential faction on the right argues that we have no business defending Ukraine, the country should still matter to conservatives enough to deter Putin and impose costs on his regime if he invades.

Israel

Amnesty International Joins the Anti-Israel Jackals

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

February 2, 2022

Bottom Line: Amnesty International’s latest report is laced with spurious claims and invective against Israel, echoing language from the Soviet playbook and holding Israel to standards expected of no other state.

Climate

Putin’s Green Fifth Column

Robert Zubrin

National Review

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: German dependence on Russian natural gas finances Putin’s military adventures—and prevents Berlin from standing up to Moscow’s bullying. That dependence is entirely the responsibility of the country’s short-sighted green movement, which shuttered German nuclear plants and made the country more dependent on carbon fuels.

Europe

Pentagon Under Fire for Not Sending Ukraine the Weapons it Needs

Jamie McIntyre

Washington Examiner

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: The Pentagon is happy to talk about the dollar-value of the military equipment it is sending to Ukraine, but has not been supplying Kyiv with the surface-to-air missiles critical to repelling a Russian attack.

Russia

Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine

TVC Advisory Board Member Fred Kagan (et al.)

Institute for the Study of War

January 27, 2022

Bottom Line: An invasion of Ukraine would advance Putin’s goal of regaining control over the country while simultaneously undermining Moscow’s objective of fracturing the unity of the NATO alliance.

China

Xi Jinping is Watching His Back

Craig Singleton

Foreign Policy

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: The Chinese president has been hunkered down in Beijing for the past 700 days. While he may appear to be focused on the COVID pandemic, the safer bet is that Xi’s reclusiveness is due to growing fears of a challenge to his power from within the CCP.

Technology

U.S. Underinvesting in 6G

Jon Harper

National Defense Magazine

January 31, 2022

Bottom Line: While policymakers have woken up to the importance of competing with China for dominance in 5G network development, the U.S. may already be falling behind the curve in the creation of its eventual successors.

Iran

Iran Nuclear Talks in Vienna Won’t Result in a Better Deal

TVC Advisory Board Member Mark Dubowitz (with Jacob Nagel)

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

January 28, 2022

Bottom Line: With prospects for a return to the 2015 nuclear deal rapidly dwindling, the most likely possibility to come out of ongoing talks in Vienna is a limited freeze of Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief.

Eurasia

Ukraine Tinderbox Could Affect Taiwan

Editorial Board

Taipei Times

January 21, 2022

Bottom Line: As tensions ratchet up over Ukraine, there is no doubt that Xi Jinping is using Washington’s response to a crisis in Europe to judge how the United States would respond to an invasion of Taiwan.

Europe

The Situation in Ukraine

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace

January 17, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin’s arguments about NATO ‘encirclement’ are nothing more than a straw man designed to create a pretext for conflict.

Grand Strategy

Biden’s Record on Dealing With Dictators, One Year In

TVC Advisory Board Member Matt Kroenig (with Jeffrey Cimmino)

The Dispatch

January 20, 2022

Bottom Line: While the Biden administration has been tough on China in its first year, despite strong rhetoric and escalating crises, he has been unwilling to adequately confront other authoritarian regimes, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

Eurasia

Putin Needs ‘General Frost’ on His Side to Win in Ukraine

Tim Marshall

Engelsberg Ideas

January 18, 2022

Bottom Line: From Napoleon to Hitler, Russia has been saved from outside invasion by the timely intervention of ‘General Frost’. Now, the tables are turned—if the winter continues to be mild and the ground does not freeze, heavy Russian mechanized units may have difficulty moving across the eastern Ukrainian plains & marshland.

Russia

To Deter Putin in Ukraine, Biden Must Stand Up to the Russian Strongman

TVC Advisory Board Member Nathan Sales

Fox News

January 23, 2022

Bottom Line: Putin senses weakness from Washington—and aggression is the predictable result—but there is still time for the Biden administration to take take tangible steps to deter a Russian invasion.

Grand Strategy

Washington In Slumber

TVC Chairman Elliott Abrams

National Review

January 23, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite major unfolding crises around the world, Washington today gives off the impression of somnolence, not vigor. On Ukraine, rather than taking action, the Biden administration seems to be waiting on Putin’s next move.

China

Securing Taiwan Requires Imminent Unprecedented Cyber Action

TVC Advisory Board Member Klon Kitchen (with Bill Drexel)

Lawfare

January 13, 2022

Bottom Line: Because of Taiwan’s unique, indispensable role in the high-tech supply chain, Washington must work with Taipei to secure the country’s cyber infrastructure.

Alliances

Reinserting Canada into America’s Indo-Pacific Perspective

TVC Advisory Board Member Zack Cooper

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

January 12, 2022

Bottom Line: Despite Canada’s long Pacific coast and growing trade with Asia, America’s neighbor to the north has yet to figure significantly into U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

China and Defense

Imagining the Unimaginable: The U.S., China, and War Over Taiwan

Joshua Keating

Grid News

January 13, 2022

Bottom Line: With or without U.S. intervention, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will certainly begin with the largest amphibious invasion in history—and likely end in deadly house-to-house fighting in one of the most densely-populated countries on Earth.

The Vandenberg Coalition

Honest Candor